SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[bluearmy]

24 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Hi, ECM 06z is almost identical to ALL other models, it has 1-2 inches throughout our area, max is about 2.5 inches. Low pressure (at 988mbs) does take a similar track to the GFS. Only runs out to 90hrs so can't tell about Thursday yet.

I've got access to it now, fwiw.

 

Is that on weather.us ?? weatherbell doesn’t have it 

[Kentspur]

It feels like the amounts expected keep downgrading. I was really hopeful of a good 10cms or more given some of the outrageous totals on GFSP for instance now being in a urban low lying Thames region I'm literally expecting anything from 1cm of slush to maybe 5-7cms if I'm really lucky here in NW Kent I can imagine my work in Borough Green close to the Downs will get triple what I have at home 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Kentspur

[yamkin]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

It feels like the amounts expected keep downgrading I'm literally expecting anything from 1cm of slush to maybe 8cms if I'm really lucky here in NW Kent I can imagine my work in Borough Green close to the Downs will get triple what I have at home 

Nothing has downgraded yet

[yamkin]

Heavy hail shower here and cold 4.4C...DP 1C

[alexisj9]

Temp on it's way down here, currently, 3.6, but dp holding steady at 1.5

[snowray]

52 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

He us just relaying what the 6z ECM showed (we don't see this run).

12z Icon coming out, yes the low is way further south I'm afraid to say. Still some PPN though from the cold front moving east.

[moogyboobles]

Also under a proper good hail shower right now in South Woodham. It feels a lot colder than the 6.4 °C that it is. 

[kold weather]

Yep Snowray, LP is south but similar snowfall amounts thanks to a reasonably active frontal system, its also a little weaker.

However also worth mentioning less marginality on the 12z ICON so snow down to coast on this run. METO figures of 1-3cms seems about right based on eyeballing it.

 

 

[LightningLover]

I swear I just heard a distant boom of thunder... Nothing on Blitzortung to suggest this though!

[Mark wheeler]

39 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:

Having a pre match pint or two ?  A nice unexpected bonus to get T & L as well.

I Wish , working I’m sorry to say , hopefully get back home for the match , been a few Sheffield fans around giving it attitude this afternoon.

[Hammer]

12z Icon has a weaker low and further south, but still active front moving across region so snow.

Interesting to see what the other models do with it.

[yamkin]

A very interesting forecast by the MetO regarding snow on Tues/Wed 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep Snowray, LP is south but similar snowfall amounts thanks to a reasonably active frontal system, its also a little weaker.

However also worth mentioning less marginality on the 12z ICON so snow down to coast on this run. METO figures of 1-3cms seems about right based on eyeballing it.

 

 

1-3cm is pretty pathetic in all reality though. I love the summer's in this part of the world, but the winters are rubbish.....only an Easterly ever really delivers and even they can be hit and miss snowfall wise. 

[Jackski4]

In the short term there's a big pulse of PPN coming right for Essex and it's just started with some hail.. !!

 

ICON looks fine for this region. All good news 

[snowray]

32 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

It feels like the amounts expected keep downgrading. I was really hopeful of a good 10cms or more given some of the outrageous totals on GFSP for instance now being in a urban low lying Thames region I'm literally expecting anything from 1cm of slush to maybe 5-7cms if I'm really lucky here in NW Kent I can imagine my work in Borough Green close to the Downs will get triple what I have at home 

Similar sort of location to yours here in Erith, near the Thames too but the 40m asl helps a bit, we will have to take Steve M's lead and move up some big hill somewhere.

[Nqp15hhu]

4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

1-3cm is pretty pathetic in all reality though. I love the summer's in this part of the world, but the winters are rubbish.....only an Easterly ever really delivers and even they can be hit and miss snowfall wise. 

Have to agree. Will melt in a few hours. You really need about 10cm +.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Nqp15hhu

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Have to agree. Will melt in a few hours. You really need about 10cm +.

Looking cold Wednesday though max of 3c and down to -3c Wed night with a severe frost so any snow could hang around for a fair bit.

Edited January 27, 2019 by snowray

[SLEETY]

Seen snow flakes this afternoon on the beach, so bodes well for the snow even here for Tuesday night. 

[Nqp15hhu]

Quite a bit of precipitation over me at the moment, but nothing falling. Let's hope this doesn't happen when the front comes on Tuesday evening, or we'll end up with nothing.  

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Seen snow flakes this afternoon on the beach, so bodes well for the snow even here for Tuesday night. 

Snowflakes falling in Southend too. Near the coast 

[Nqp15hhu]

10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Looking cold Wednesday though max of 3c and down to -3c Wed night with a severe frost so any snow could hang around for a fair bit.

I suppose. It just depends on how much falls.

[snowrye]

Still time for changes, but the totals being forecasted now are a real kick in the teeth

[Hammer]

GFS 12z going with a deeper low and in to NW France. Further north than Icon 12z.

[snowray]

GFS super consistent strangely enough, upgrades the snow for us, low remains further north. Awaiting UKMO now with bated breath...

[Jackski4]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

GFS super consistent strangely enough, upgrades the snow for us, low remains further north. Awaiting UKMO now with bated breath...

Well?