SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Coopsy]

11 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Only really 1-3cms for the majority reading the text of the warning. 5cms for some and 10cm possible over high ground. Was kind of hoping for more.

I do too but it’s a start and a met warning before February - I’ll take that. Finally we’ve got things to talk about and chance of a covering of snow. Here on out it gets interesting 

Edited January 27, 2019 by CanadianCoops

[Hammer]

I am in East Herts/West Essex border, currently well in the warning zone, but this may change. I could also be at northern extent come the day, or not see strongest PPN.

[Jo Farrow]

Chance of snow in south. But not a certainty. A heads up, but look at the Met Office warning matrix, still in Unlikely category. A message to keep up with the forecast and try to ignore the hype. 

However, if it does come off, it could be heavy oooooh

[Methuselah]

There will scenes like this, in offices all over our region, come Wednesday morning...

 

[kold weather]

14 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Only really 1-3cms for the majority reading the text of the warning. 5cms for some and 10cm possible over high ground. Was kind of hoping for more.

I suspect the Met Office was fairly conservative due to the timing issues we have already discussed, so this warning is kind of a steady middle ground between the options that are on the table. I'd say personally 5-10cms is more likely in our area IF the system arrives at the sort of time expected. A few hours earlier and you could easily cut that in half, maybe more. A little later, and you could up that to 10-15cms IMO.

Still time for things to go wrong it should be said!

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by kold weather

[Lampostwatcher]

Its great to be in the warning area

 

But it actually means didilly squat 

As they are not certain 

Lets hope they are right

[Hammer]

For them to issure warning more than 48 hours out does suggest some confidence to me otherwise why not wait until tomorrow. But actual track, intensity will mean that warning area will change I am sure.

[lassie23]

it all probably pass harmlessly south and give some sleet in the isle of wight

[SLEETY]

amazing we are actually in the warning for chance of snow.Makes a change.

[snowrye]

Wouldn't it be great,if we all got buried with snow,fingers crossed

[Hammer]

Thoughts on Thursday? seems promising from some comments in MOD thread.

[Dami]

I'm sitting on the fence. last time radars, maps, whatevers said i had snow. And I got freezing rain. 

However, hubs has slow cooked silver side of beef on and we have made sure there is plenty of hot chocolate available. Bub is on the edge of a chest infection, so no swim school today, hoping it will get better if it dos snow because she will be gutted if she cant go and play. 

[kold weather]

17 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Thoughts on Thursday? seems promising from some comments in MOD thread.

The GFS suite this morning has shifted a fair way north (Op/OPara AND ensembles)  however a long way to go yet, and the ECM/ICON/UKMO seem to be leading the way at the moment, so I'd give them more weight.

I suspect though we aren't going to know till Tuesday, by which time I think we will be looking at a snow event anyway.

Edited January 27, 2019 by kold weather

[PLANET THANET]

looked at the met site for our area early this morning and it said heavy snow for wednesday am, now they have changed it to only light snow and not even in the warning, hopefully they dont really kinow yet

[yamkin]

Trains Will Come To a Standstill In London On Tues/Wed 

[tinybill]

4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Trains Will Come To a Standstill In London On Tues/Wed 

lol roads also us down here don't how to deal with the  stuff  ps  plus gatwick heath row etc

[steveinsussex]

met office have it quite widely as rain until gone 2am when it turns to snow for a few hours

[steveinsussex]

1 minute ago, tinybill said:

lol roads also us down here don't how to deal with the  stuff  ps  plus gatwick heath row etc

will all due respect - speak for yourself, im rather competent

[Jackski4]

 

GFS para very good for down here both Tuesday and Thursday... That's the important thing. Beyond that, Well the MO is saying that colder air is going to follow in behind on Friday, and I'm going with them. Despite all the negative nancy's on the thread saying winter is over 

Edited January 27, 2019 by shuggee

[tinybill]

just been reading  the north east forum  they getting  bits  of snow there  and looking at the radar  with the gales due soon in our area  could easily get sleet/snow showers   later

[Coopsy]

13 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

will all due respect - speak for yourself, im rather competent

Same as. 10 years driving in canadian snow does help but I can understand those that don’t drive much. My missus would be a danger to others in the snow (more so than when it doesn’t snow lol) 

[Hotspur62]

Viewed MOD thread out of curiosity but not a nice atmosphere and thought I would come back to a friendlier regional thread.We are still at early stages for Tues night/weds morning and I will be looking at Hirlam  tomorrow evening as I found this model the most accurate when forecasting the snow last March(hope I haven’t jinxed it now).MET OFFICE have had to put warning out now but there is huge uncertainty at this stage and without putting a damper on it it could be removed this time tomorrow morning.Conversely it may upgrade to an Amber warning for a few lucky spots-it is that type of fluid situation.

 

I am just sitting back and what will be will be-yes would be disappointed if it all goes TU but as we have found out over the years the UK weather is so unpredictable and that is why we are all drawn into these forums!,

Edited January 27, 2019 by Hotspur62

[Hammer]

1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Viewed MOD thread out of curiosity but not a nice atmosphere and thought I would come back to a friendlier regional thread.We are still at early stages for Tues night/weds morning and I will be looking at Hiram tomorrow evening as I found this model the most accurate when forecasting the snow last March(hope I haven’t jinxed it now).MET OFFICE have had to put warning out now but there is huge uncertainty at this stage and without putting a damper on it it could be removed this time tomorrow morning.Conversely it may upgrade to an Amber warning for a few lucky spots-it is that type of fluid situation.

 

I am just sitting back and what will be will be-yes would be disappointed if it all goes TU but as we have found out over the years the UK weather is so unpredictable and that is why we are all drawn into these forums!,

To me it shows "some" confidence albeit not on exact track and exact area but we get broad idea from this 1st warning. Eyes on when they update the area tomorrow.

 

[steveinsussex]

7 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Same as. 10 years driving in canadian snow does help but I can understand those that don’t drive much. My missus would be a danger to others in the snow (more so than when it doesn’t snow lol) 

I just hate the stereotypical oh southerners cant cope blah blah.... we all see the footage from up north or wales when they get snow with miles of traffic, or buses stranded on hills etc etc.... its the same all over in this country. Our infrastructure isnt set up for it, doesnt mean we cant drive in it

[Chris101]

4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

That models thread is so toxic and over analysed. Every run is like the be all or end all of winter. Not to mention nobody seems to get on. Think a lot of people there have got a case of small willy syndrome and need to focus on the weather more than personal egos..

 

Anyway,

GFS para very good for down here both Tuesday and Thursday... That's the important thing. Beyond that, Well the MO is saying that colder air is going to follow in behind on Friday, and I'm going with them. Despite all the negative nancy's on the thread saying winter is over 

Give it time you'll soon understand who to listen to and who to scroll on by.

There's a little band who turn up with a bad run, their posts usually start "I've been saying all along"

Lots of wannabe forecasters who write stuff with no idea of what they are saying. So many on Friday gone were writing posts detailing the complete collapse of the cold this Thurs coming with full agreement from all models and this was our last chance at winter. 24 hours later they are trying their hand at in depth analysis again forgetting their claims from the previous day.

As I say you get used to who the respectable posters are that know what they are talking about. Luckily for us we have probably the best of them in our regoinal