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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
1 minute ago, Sharpedge said:

Thanks Tom, so it looks like the Tuesday Wednesday event sounds a bit knife edge for London.

Yes, but these events always are - high risk = big rewards.

For Greater London, I would like to see another 50 miles north on this low. 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn

We want the low to track CAREFULLY north to keep a lot of people in the picture. Not too far north however. Very complex. Things currently looking good though 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Rain here atm, with little wind.

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
26 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but these events always are - high risk = big rewards.

For Greater London, I would like to see another 50 miles north on this low. 

Hi RD,

Totally agree with your comment. In terms of Weather Models, we're dealing with really fine detail now.  A 50 mile difference to the track of a feature on a Weather Model is the equivalent of popping next door and borrowing a pint of milk, from your neighbour!!Hence my comment earlier, regarding radar watching all the way down to t0!!

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
8 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi RD,

Totally agree with your comment. In terms of Weather Models, we're dealing with really fine detail now. Hence my comment earlier, regarding radar watching all the way down to t0!!

Regards,

Tom. 

Yes, we will get shifts in the track up until a few hours before. Wonder when the met will put the first warnings up.

These channel lows can be potent little systems though - high energy and a lot of ppn on the front. 

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
6 minutes ago, Ben Capee McInnes said:

What’s it looking like for east Kent? Canterbury here. Looks interesting but a cliffhanger! Who knows what will happen. Only 2 days away now 

I THINK there's some runs that give Essex and Kent in excess of 15cms, although I think snow depth analysis right now will be highly inaccurate. Could be less, equally could be more. Need the low to keep north enough so that it doesn't just effect france. Currently all looking good. PARA run will be pivotal again I think, should be around 10:30

Edited by Jackski4
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Hmmmm interesting FAX for Tues/Wed

Lets compare it to the models of this morning..

86961547.thumb.gif.3f8b7e9525e605de2c71d85c8bca554f.gif86961517.thumb.gif.1146d54814172507dc3a2fd7b47bea6d.gif86961509.thumb.gif.40695fce279b20e04984732e94006fa6.gif  

Wondering if that Front on Wednesday will Wrap around giving more snow?

Certainly no lack of PPN on these charts with a cold front chasing the Occluded front out ..

Ive taken each model I can from Midday Tuesday the rest please see time stamp

 

GFS                                                                     ICON                                                         ARPEGE                                                            

overview_20190127_00_060.thumb.jpg.419845d4b31fae0c706bcd89e7a5f6f0.jpg          icon.thumb.jpg.3fa356a1c2b5e6392a7cca817e86889c.jpg         ARPEGE.thumb.jpg.66f8924f12dc0cc777774f945f6b195d.jpg

 

UKMO                                                                  ECM                                                              GFS Para

797833925_LOWUKMO.thumb.gif.8cae47783487bcc48e8fb55f942bcc42.gif           ECM.thumb.gif.c4b7f68d4e88bf5cb071d70d1896b015.gif          1973046700_GFSpara.thumb.png.f6023814df99eaeabeb9472d27f883ea.png

 

JMA

JMA.thumb.gif.ae53737e7de9053340fe8d044ed6dfe1.gif

 

Current MIDDLE ground trend would be something like this GREEN LINE

Top end of the Northern extent would be RED LINE

Bottom end of Southern extent would be BLUE LINE

map.thumb.jpg.d21ac82c371f7967fd4188332342c2ad.jpg

Are we any wiser?

 

Absolutely not..

 

 

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Hmmmm interesting FAX for Tues/Wed

Lets compare it to the models of this morning..

86961547.thumb.gif.3f8b7e9525e605de2c71d85c8bca554f.gif86961517.thumb.gif.1146d54814172507dc3a2fd7b47bea6d.gif86961509.thumb.gif.40695fce279b20e04984732e94006fa6.gif  

Wondering if that Front on Wednesday will Wrap around giving more snow?

Certainly no lack of PPN on these charts with a cold front chasing the Occluded front out ..

Ive taken each model I can from Midday Tuesday the rest please see time stamp

 

GFS                                                                     ICON                                                         ARPEGE                                                            

overview_20190127_00_060.thumb.jpg.419845d4b31fae0c706bcd89e7a5f6f0.jpg          icon.thumb.jpg.3fa356a1c2b5e6392a7cca817e86889c.jpg         ARPEGE.thumb.jpg.66f8924f12dc0cc777774f945f6b195d.jpg

 

UKMO                                                                  ECM                                                              GFS Para

797833925_LOWUKMO.thumb.gif.8cae47783487bcc48e8fb55f942bcc42.gif           ECM.thumb.gif.c4b7f68d4e88bf5cb071d70d1896b015.gif          1973046700_GFSpara.thumb.png.f6023814df99eaeabeb9472d27f883ea.png

 

JMA

JMA.thumb.gif.ae53737e7de9053340fe8d044ed6dfe1.gif

 

Current MIDDLE ground trend would be something like this GREEN LINE

Top end of the Northern extent would be RED LINE

Bottom end of Southern extent would be BLUE LINE

 

Are we any wiser?

 

Absolutely not..

 

 

map.thumb.jpg.d21ac82c371f7967fd4188332342c2ad.jpg

None the wiser. Cool lines though, 9-10

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Wind is suddenly picking up...

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Becoming wet during Tuesday, with the potential for disruptive snow overnight into Wednesday. Further rain, perhaps preceded by snow, on Thursday. Overnight frost and ice is likely.

 

thats from the met for the south west, DISRUPTIVE SNOW, wow.

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3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

None the wiser. Cool lines though, 9-10

Well ECM mean now goes with almost red line option as Steve posted in Model thread..

Today 2 things are going to happen... 

Trend North or Trend south... Probs more on the 12z 18z and 00z later

Monday will then firm up any minor things for instances PPN intensity.. Flows.. etc

Tuesday day time will be real time data watching.. 

 

I will post all the links up on Monday night

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
1 minute ago, Bazray said:

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Becoming wet during Tuesday, with the potential for disruptive snow overnight into Wednesday. Further rain, perhaps preceded by snow, on Thursday. Overnight frost and ice is likely.

 

thats from the met for the south west, DISRUPTIVE SNOW, wow.

This is the SE though.

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Just now, Bazray said:

Yea sorry, just thought it’s interesting to all.

Ours will do nicely...

 

Monday:

Cold and sunny, with early brisk winds in eastern areas progressively easing. Remaining clear with a widespread hard frost developing overnight. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well ECM mean now goes with almost red line option as Steve posted in Model thread..

Today 2 things are going to happen... 

Trend North or Trend south... Probs more on the 12z 18z and 00z later

Monday will then firm up any minor things for instances PPN intensity.. Flows.. etc

Tuesday day time will be real time data watching.. 

 

I will post all the links up on Monday night

Red line is good for us, correct ?

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

 

Ours will do nicely...

 

Monday:

Cold and sunny, with early brisk winds in eastern areas progressively easing. Remaining clear with a widespread hard frost developing overnight. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday

Indeed just looked at Brighton...

 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday.

 

SIGNIFICANT  not as good as DISRUPTIVE but still good.

good news

Edited by Bazray
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
1 minute ago, Surrey said:

mmmmm Good for people about 25 miles inland..

Anymore than that and its going to be squeaky bum time with warmer air coming into the mix 

 

SO we need it a tad further south?

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

SO we need it a tad further south?

 Splitting hairs really, I'm happy to take the risk. 

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

As others have said this won’t be resolved until tomorrow night at the earliest and even then it is subject to change.my current thoughts looking at latest UKMO fax is that in an ideal world we would need about a 30-40 move northwards which would just about keep us within the margins of more snow within the right temperature range purely for the SE thread.The natural pessimist in me thinks like yesterday these systems have a habit of dropping further southwards when we get within 48 hour range so although temperatures are colder a lot of the thread would end up with the snow drought conyinuing

Fascinating watching this develop and hope we are all lamppost watching from late Tuesday night onwards seeing heavy snow falling!!

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