SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Daniel*]

At least met office are talking about it now haven’t seen any mention from BBC London broadcasts just chance of wintry showers this week! Is this what we pay our TV license for? 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Staying cold, with potential for disruptive snow in central and southern areas Tuesday into Wednesday, then perhaps more widespread rain and snow on Thursday. Some severe overnight frosts too.

Updated: 00:34 on Sun 27 Jan 2019 GMT

[Icebox]

8 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

We do ok given our proximity to Europe, some of us are closer to Europe than London 

plus the rest probably say the same in Sumer when we have the better weather!!

We do ok? You might.

The 2018 beast from the east was a total washout around here... the Worthing snow shield held strong, a few hard frosts and an icing sugar sprinkling of snow one morning, a very poor return considering. The last decent snowfall down here was 2013. But I agree the summer months do usually make up for the poor winters.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

At least met office are talking about it now haven’t seen any mention from BBC London broadcasts just chance of wintry showers this week! Is this what we pay our TV license for? 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Staying cold, with potential for disruptive snow in central and southern areas Tuesday into Wednesday, then perhaps more widespread rain and snow on Thursday. Some severe overnight frosts too.

Updated: 00:34 on Sun 27 Jan 2019 GMT

Indeed, here is the latest south east forecast;

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday.

[snowrye]

4 minutes ago, Icebox said:

We do ok? You might.

The 2018 beast from the east was a total washout around here... the Worthing snow shield held strong, a few hard frosts and an icing sugar sprinkling of snow one morning, a very poor return considering. The last decent snowfall down here was 2013. But I agree the summer months do usually make up for the poor winters.

Same here,the beast from the east produced around 2cm at best for me,while 3 miles down the road,it was 8 inches plus,just sat there watching the radar,and all the snow avoiding me lol

[Don]

3 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Same here,the beast from the east produced around 2cm at best for me,while 3 miles down the road,it was 8 inches plus,just sat there watching the radar,and all the snow avoiding me lol

I would have gone for a 3 mile walk!

[snowrye]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

I would have gone for a 3 mile walk!

Thats in a straight line,there's a river that runs in the valley,lol

[Don]

4 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Thats in a straight line,there's a river that runs in the valley,lol

Nah, I would have found a way.  No way would I put up with looking at a radar seeing all the snow narrowly miss me like that! 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Don

[snowrye]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Nah, I would have found a way.  No way would I put up with looking at a radar seeing all the snow narrowly miss me like that! 

Its more than double if you go by road

[kold weather]

27 minutes ago, Icebox said:

We do ok? You might.

The 2018 beast from the east was a total washout around here... the Worthing snow shield held strong, a few hard frosts and an icing sugar sprinkling of snow one morning, a very poor return considering. The last decent snowfall down here was 2013. But I agree the summer months do usually make up for the poor winters.

I was just far enough west to pick up on the decent snowfall from storm Emma, ended up with around 3-4 inches which was more than originally expected here, but I know the cutoff line was fairly sharp and places 20-30 miles east had barely a dusting.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I was just far enough west to pick up on the decent snowfall from storm Emma, ended up with around 3-4 inches which was more than originally expected here, but I know the cutoff line was fairly sharp and places 20-30 miles east had barely a dusting.

Living in Ash (Surrey) at the time, I also did ok out of storm Emma with similar totals to you.  Pity about the rapid thaw the next day though!  However, did pretty well on the 18th March, too.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Don

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, Surrey said:

They won't say nothing till Tuesday morning maybe Monday night earliest IF its game on... The panic it would cause is massive... Plus its not nailed on 

If they think it's on they'll issue a red Tuesday update, expect a yellow before then on Monday. If I don't see the yellow, they think it will be south.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Up early and have just seen a recording of MeteoGroup's, Weather For The Week Ahead (with Alina Jenkins).

Obviously, still a lot of uncertainty with the track of this small feature, running through on Tues/Weds. On Alina's Forecast, nothing much was made of the feature, at all, just a few wintry showers, were mentioned. 

But I've just seen the 4.28 Forecast on BBC News24, again from MeteoGroup, this time with Nick Miller. Nick's Forecast made much more of the small low and the potential for disruptive snowfall, was mentioned again. Obviously, Tues/Weds weather is proving to be very problematical, for the Models!!

Below, is the 00z UKMO chart, for 01.00 on Weds:

To my eye, it looks a tad further South, than yesterday afternoon's, 12z UKMO run.

850 temps, look just about ok. This situation has all the hallmarks of going, "down to the wire". Fascinating Model watching, though.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Jackski4]

We're at that stage now where if the next few runs stay the same, confidence can grow for Tuesday.. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bloooody hell, that wind!!!! its roaring here like literally slamming into the back of the house which faces North West... There are things flying around the patio... 

[lassie23]

what a crap morning

[lassie23]

Fence panel has kept me up all night it has come loose and has been banging away, now it has fallen off  it's from B and Q so what do you expect, looks like it's made from cardboard. Never knew B&Q stood for bad quality

Edited January 27, 2019 by lassie23

[Mizzle]

13 hours ago, Chris101 said:

Sorry @Mizzle went away from lappy, i use xcweather myself, it uses official stations so your not getting bad obs from badly sited stations.

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Brilliant! Many thanks.

[Mizzle]

Whoa! That wind is quite ferocious this morning here in N Hampshire. Just went to let the dog out and she refused.

At last. Some weather. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Looks like the 00z ECM has Tues/Weds small Low, a touch further South.

    00z ECM (01.00) WEDS 30th JAN

  

850 temps look fine.

   00z ECM (01.00) WEDS 30th JAN

Just a small tip to those members who are new and also visitors to this site. Be aware that the Model thread, in the next few days, will become a "hotbed" of over analysis of every kink, in every isobar!! Enter at your peril!!

And regarding the parameters that need to be met for falling snow, e,g., dew points, etc. You can do worse than pay attention to the likes of our own, Steve M, Nick F., Kold Weather, if I've missed any other of the more technically minded members, I apologise.

I'm of the opinion , this may come down to radar watching, all the way down to t0, before we can be sure of the exact track and strength of this feature.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

[Laurence Hill]

3 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Looks like the 00z ECM has Tues/Weds small Low, a touch further South.

    00z ECM (01.00) WEDS 30th JAN

  

850 temps look fine.

   00z ECM (01.00) WEDS 30th JAN

Just a small tip to those members who are new and also visitors to this site. Be aware that the Model thread, in the next few days, will become a "hotbed" of over analysis of every kink, in every isobar!! Enter at your peril!!

And regarding the parameters that need to be met for falling snow, e,g., dew points, etc. You can do worse than pay attention to the likes of our own, Steve M, Nick F., Kold Weather, if I've missed any other of the more technically minded members, I apologise.

I'm of the opinion , this may come down to radar watching, all the way down to t0, before we can be sure of the exact track and strength of this feature.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Can you explain what the implications of the low being further south are.

Many thanks.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

10 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Can you explain what the implications of the low being further south are.

Many thanks.

Lack of anything falling out the sky for the majority... 

Heads up ICON did very bad last week on the snow.. HIRLAM won again 

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Can you explain what the implications of the low being further south are.

Many thanks.

Colder air, but precipitation also further south. 

[SMU]

Temps down to 3.8c here steadily dropping

[Polar Maritime]

Some back edge snow for some on the radar.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi Sharpedge,

Yes with the low a touch further South, marginality in terms of borderline temps. for snow, should be less of a problem. But we don't want this feature to drift too far South, otherwise we'll lose the ppn, altogether.

Regards,

Tom. 

P.S. Have just seen the latest MeteoGroup forecast on BBC 1, with Susan Powell. She reiterated the earlier Forecast from Nick Miller. There's still a lot of uncertainty in the Models of the exact track and strength of Tues/Weds, feature. But the potential is there, for some disruptive snowfall.