SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[bobbydog]

 

Very windy out....

Edited January 26, 2019 by chionomaniac
Attacking team member

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Currently experiencing the yearly monsoon blooooody hell torrential rain.. @stainesbloke bit of weather this eh??? 

ECM with ‘torrential’ snow in the far SE inland of southern coast between East Sussex and Kent.

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

ECM with ‘torrential’ snow in the far SE inland of southern coast between East Sussex and Kent.

South Downs could be fun....

[snowking]

ECM brings the system in about 9 hours earlier than the UKMO or GFSP - not great news in terms of some extra help from nocturnal cooling. We could do with it being a little bit slower - of course this is likely to change quite a lot over the next few days 

[chionomaniac]

It’s going to be a long 2 days model watching. These systems are always high risk, high reward scenarios with low track and rain/snow boundaries. Can we not just take what is on offer now?

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, Chris101 said:

Sorry @Mizzle went away from lappy, i use xcweather myself, it uses official stations so your not getting bad obs from badly sited stations.

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Brilliant! Many thanks.

[snowrye]

Not going to get drawn in yet,been here many times before,and soz to say,im awaiting the usual downgrades etc,hate being a downbeat,but,for our location it always seems to go wrong

[NO LONGER POSTING]

33 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh thats really developed on the back of that front Surrey. 

Heads up London area and South Essex could be in for some really heavy rain soon

Garden.. Is now a pond 

[tinybill]

if  they charts  and  models  are right we going  to get  dumped on  Tuesday  ex  Kent   fun times ahead

[MagicBat]

Just seen the C4 weather and they are forecasting rain in London and snow in Manchester for Tuesday.

Confused..... I'm reading the charts as snow for our area (like many here). I believe the low will be slightly further north as it transitions though the UK and will move less rapidly into France as the models have shown. So a few inches of snow is possible in places (matches the snow total charts this afternoon).

Is rain a possible outcome, rather than snow... Do they know something?

 

 

[yamkin]

2 hours ago, Bogman said:

109?

109 cm belongs to the Daily Express 

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, MagicBat said:

Just seen the C4 weather and they are forecasting rain in London and snow in Manchester for Tuesday.

Confused..... I'm reading the charts as snow for our area (like many here). I believe the low will be slightly further north as it transitions though the UK and will move less rapidly into France as the models have shown. So a few inches of snow is possible in places (matches the snow total charts this afternoon).

Is rain a possible outcome, rather than snow... Do they know something?

 

 

They are usually quite accurate so expect disappointment and if you get snow it will be a bonus

[chionomaniac]

12 minutes ago, MagicBat said:

Just seen the C4 weather and they are forecasting rain in London and snow in Manchester for Tuesday.

Confused..... I'm reading the charts as snow for our area (like many here). I believe the low will be slightly further north as it transitions though the UK and will move less rapidly into France as the models have shown. So a few inches of snow is possible in places (matches the snow total charts this afternoon).

Is rain a possible outcome, rather than snow... Do they know something?

 

 

Of course rain is possible. Nothing is guaranteed. The possible channel low bringing snow is subject still to a couple of days of change. As @Steve Murr has just pointed out in the model thread, the ecm mean for the low is further north so the boundary between snow and north would be further north. It will probably go down to the wire

[NO LONGER POSTING]

We won't be confident on anything till Monday night.. 

The will it rain/snow will not be decided till that low is on live surface pressure charts and we can track its movement.. 

In these events like Steve pointed out they trend south.. Usually 

[snow raven]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

At the moment 5pm onwards

Perfect timing as my train arrives back from London at 4.56pm and then I'm off work Wed - Fri so it can snow as much as it wants

[yamkin]

28 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

They are usually quite accurate so expect disappointment and if you get snow it will be a bonus

Channel 4 use the MeteoGroup........BBC Weather as you must know also use the MeteoGroup.............BBC Weather are uncertain as follows: 'There is some uncertainty over the day to day details of the forecast going into next week'

[snowbob]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Garden.. Is now a pond 

Will be watching your posts closely mate @Surrey

you got the last snow for our region absolutely spot on

nice one mate

I see the northern members in the mad thread trying to water ( to be polite ) on our fires

lol

Edited January 26, 2019 by snowbob

[lassie23]

51 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Channel 4 use the MeteoGroup........BBC Weather as you must know also use the MeteoGroup.............BBC Weather are uncertain as follows: 'There is some uncertainty over the day to day details of the forecast going into next week'

yes i remember them not having any of the beast from the east recently

Edited January 26, 2019 by lassie23

[SMU]

On the way down here 7.2c

[snowbob]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

On the way down here 7.2c

What do you think about backedge snow in the morning

ciukd be tight

[NO LONGER POSTING]

38 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Will be watching your posts closely mate @Surrey

you got the last snow for our region absolutely spot on

nice one mate

I see the northern members in the mad thread trying to water ( to be polite ) on our fires

lol

HA! Thank you, did take a little while looking at various model runs and live data to get that one right.. I won't be saying anything on Tuesday till Monday evening earliest. 

Ignore the northern folk, like I posted yesterday, exactly that is happening. 

Stay in here folks and enjoy the ride! 

Edited January 26, 2019 by Surrey

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Currently experiencing the yearly monsoon blooooody hell torrential rain.. @stainesbloke bit of weather this eh??? 

That blew up from nowhere, very intense rainfall! Yes, this half of winter actually giving plenty of weather. 

Will be very interesting to see what happens next week. Latest GFS has Tuesdays low too far S to affect our region, then rain on Thursday. Just one run on one model though. At least there’s a chance of something wintry.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Okay okay one thing on Tuesday night I can't resist...

ICON 18z for this evening for Tuesday night... Sheeeeez 

12 hours of heavy snow for the whole of the region... 

Warm core well south of us.. 

@Steve Murr dunno why that bloke is saying having height will be key...? 

-5 uppers.. Pulling in hopefully a cold flow around the top from the continent maybe for immediate coasts.. 

 

Edited January 26, 2019 by Surrey

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Okay okay one thing on Tuesday night I can't resist...

ICON 18z for this evening for Tuesday night... Sheeeeez 

12 hours of heavy snow for the whole of the region... 

Warm core well south of us.. 

@Steve Murr dunno why that bloke is saying having height will be key...? 

-5 uppers.. Pulling in hopefully a cold flow around the top from the continent maybe for immediate coasts.. 

 

assuming nothing changes I think we do have an initial period of rain between 7-9

On the ICON the downs go white first ~ 8pm then the rest over 2 hours - The low then lifts & the main hit zone is kent - highest depth 10-11 Inches 

Edited January 26, 2019 by Steve Murr

[tinybill]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

assuming nothing changes I think we do have an initial period of rain between 7-9

On the ICON the downs go white first ~ 8pm then the rest over 2 hours - The low then lifts & the main hit zone is kent - highest depth 10-11 Inches 

it could get interesting  to say  the least!!