SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Coopsy]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thats Brilliant

Have looked at the Bessie Wessie as one of the possibles so good you mentioned that, and will defo check out Nash as well

Thanks for the Swift Reply

Hope you get lucky (storm wise lol) It’s a good spot. I was in a tornado warning once driving north of Calgary. The prairies get some good storms and tornadoes 

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Hope you get lucky (storm wise lol) It’s a good spot. I was in a tornado warning once driving north of Calgary. The prairies get some good storms and tornadoes 

Yh we ventured into Canada once last year in June and scored a Tornado near Estevan and then crossed back into the USA near Portal. They get some stunners in July with Canola Fields as the back drop

Cant Wait!

[WillinGlossop]

Calgary kamloops Edmonton red deer lake Louise lovely pretty places to be....  especially in winter ??

[smichling]

49 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

I’m back to Canada next month. Hot tub and snow all the way   but still it’s nothing like snow in your own back yard. Hopefully you’ll get to see snow in the hot tub this winter

I’m also heading off to Canada at half term. Jasper for a week and can’t wait! Not heaps of snow there this season but so cold that it’s not an issue 

[Zesyph]

Meanwhile in America........ not jealous at all ! 

Feels pretty mild out there. Hoping for the return of cold on Sunday

Edited January 25, 2019 by Zesyph

[kold weather]

Well the 18z ensembles have certainly thrown down the gauntlet. This feels like it could be one of those situations where someone in this country may get hammered hard twice in 24hrs. If things stay where they are, somewhere would probably cop 12-15 inches by the end of the week..

BUT these charts will change, whether for the better or worse. Down here we need less for Tuesday's action to evolve, but we need something probably approaching 90% perfection for Wednesday to become a total snow day, snow-rain still the heavy favourite, despite better charts this evening. Any snow cover we can get on Tuesday will work in our favour by helping to modify the very lowest level of the atmosphere colder and may help us retain snow longer than the 850hpa profile would suggest at first.

[chionomaniac]

Looks like some kind of trough in the NW flow after the cold has arrived tomorrow. I haven’t looked at other short range models but similar to Tuesday from earlier this week.

 

Worth keeping an eye before next week even arrives

[James Gold]

Well the GFS Parallel does awfully well for us next week... Still the chance of a lot of snow 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Up early to have breakfast with Wife, before she started her 12 hour shift.

First had a look at a recording of MeteoGroup's, Weather For The Week Ahead (with Nick Miller).

I'm just going to concentrate on our snow chances, in the next week. After this mild blip, turning colder tomorrow. Some showery ppn may make it's way down the East coast, which may be wintry.

He gave a sigh, when he came to Tuesday's forecast. He stated there was a lot of uncertainty regarding the track of this small feature, running towards us from the West. He did emphasis that if it took a more Northerly track across S.England, that it could cause some disruptive snowfall. It was certainly something to "keep an eye on".

He finished the forecast by stating that a large low will likely be positioned just to the N.W. of the U.K, by the end of the week. Should that occur, the weather will become milder.

Having looked at the overnight  runs regarding Tuesday's potential, prefer UKMO and the GFS  (PARA):

     00z UKMO WEDS 30th JAN (T96)

00z GFS (PARA) WEDS 30th JAN (t96)

A couple of the other Models, make less of the feature and have it running further South, through France.

The 00z ECM, hardly makes anything of the feature at all, just showing as a "kink", in the isobars. See Chart below:

      00z ECM WEDS 30th JAN (t96)

It will be very interesting to see how this situation resolves, itself. My mind harks back to the conversation I had with local Meteorologist Ian Currie, a few days ago. In Ian's opinion, the UKMO Model is the best "short range" Model, around. But the 850 temps on the UKMO Model, look the most marginal for snow, especially in the South of our region. We don't want to see this feature develop too much, otherwise we could the cold air mixed out.

Not long to wait now, to discover our fate!! 

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2019 by TomSE12

[Coopsy]

Must resist the rollercoaster, must resist the rollercoaster, must resist the rollercoaster.....ah sod it weeeeeeeeeeeee it’s gonna snow  

[Isabellesnanny]

Know the details aren't nailed on yet but I am travelling from Croydon to Norfolk on Friday and then from Norfolk to Stanstead for a flight on Saturday morning. Getting very worried seeing that we may have disruptive snow.How soon can we be pretty much sure what the weather will be like at that stage?. Looking at the MOD thread I am starting to think we should re-look at arrangements, be prepared that we are not going to get there. Any thoughts? thanks

Edited January 26, 2019 by Isabellesnanny

[username home]

just spent the last hour reviewing numerous topics on the forum to get a better understanding of what next week's weather will be like. 

conclusion:

nobody bloody knows! although all the hot air being spouted  is likely to reduce any chances of snow we have!

Edited January 26, 2019 by username home

[Snipper]

12 hours ago, smichling said:

I’m also heading off to Canada at half term. Jasper for a week and can’t wait! Not heaps of snow there this season but so cold that it’s not an issue 

Had a most enjoyable trip to Canada. Flew Calgary, stayed at Banff, then Jasper and drove over to Whistler then onto Vancouver Island and flew back from Vancouver. 

[Laurence Hill]

7 minutes ago, username home said:

just spent the last hour reviewing numerous topics on the forum to get a better understanding of what next week's weather will be like. 

conclusion:

nobody bloody knows! although all the hot air being spouted  is likely to reduce any chances of snow we have!

I think best wait until SM comes here and gives us a briefing, he did say he would be here this weekend.

Ive noticed that if there is uncertainty he tends to hold back, which is much better than getting people’s hopes up.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Sharpedge

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, username home said:

just spent the last hour reviewing numerous topics on the forum to get a better understanding of what next week's weather will be like. 

conclusion:

nobody bloody knows! although all the hot air being spouted  is likely to reduce any chances of snow we have!

You really ought to know better, you know...model-watching and rationality go together like water and gasoline!

[Hotspur62]

10 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Had a most enjoyable trip to Canada. Flew Calgary, stayed at Banff, then Jasper and drove over to Whistler then onto Vancouver Island and flew back from Vancouver. 

I did that trip 20 years ago but in the summer!!Loved Banff and jasper and plan to go back with the missus in a couple years.

The snow event which may or may not happen Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will go down to the wire and a 50 mile difference north or south will have huge implications for us in the SE.Historically when these Channel Lows happen I would say there is a 60/40 chance it will be further south than currently being modelled but that is purely from seeing past events occur.Would love current UKMO CHART being on the money as that I think would suit all of SE THREAD in terms of snow.My god I think we deserve something to go our way in what up to this point has been a winter that has shown so much potential but so far delivered nowt!!I have everything crossed for this thread and fab members.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Hotspur62

[Dami]

woke up hopeful things have been upgraded but alas, no. Hubs brought ice cream, chocolate sauce and oreo's to make sundaes. I like this very much. 

So no snow day for us :(

[Jackski4]

@kold weather what's your take on Thursdays system as it stands for here in the SE?

[clark3r]

I' not confident we will see snow this week it will either go further south or north hope I am wrong 

[kold weather]

Honestly not sure yet as it is somewhat dependent on what happens with the channel low situation. If the channel low does form. that would argue the 2nd low will be further south as well, maybe even too far south IF it become strong enough.

For now though, I'd still expect something close to the GFs/ECM OP runs, but maybe a little weaker and a touch further south-east but I've no idea yet, a lot of options.

Everything from nothing but rain, through to 1ft.

[Snow Queen one]

Can I order 1ft of snow please ty to be delivered to Maidstone.

[Coopsy]

Here’s hoping to conditions like we saw end of Feb last year like this....

[chionomaniac]

 

Some screenshots of tomorrow morning trough. Looks like best forecast for snow risk are from gfs and gfsp

 

 

 

[scrat]

51 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

Can I order 1ft of snow please ty to be delivered to Maidstone.

I'd like he same please for Biggin Hill 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very snowy period coming up IF we can maintain the current trend. Within the semi reliable now so changes expected but not HUGE ones (hopefully)