SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Some interesting weather possible for next week, if all goes well our region could get a decent snowfall. 

Yes might be fun.  I thought your region was now elsewhere as you had run away from UK. 

[Mark]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Some interesting weather possible for next week, if all goes well our region could get a decent snowfall. 

Not liking the idea of us being at the extreme end of possibilities, but any possibility is good as far as I'm concerned.

Though if it comes off, I'm going to be stuck in Reading! 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Mark

[jright35]

After all of Toms work on Channel Lows this week it would be very fitting for Tuesdays possible event to come off!

[stainesbloke]

9 minutes ago, Mark said:

Not liking the idea of us being at the extreme end of possibilities, but any possibility is good as far as I'm concerned.

Though if it comes off, I'm going to be stuck in Reading! 

Could be worse lol The middle ground and more likely solution could still give us some snow, apparently 

[kold weather]

GFSP has a decent snowfall for this area...also worth noting a lot of the GFS ensembles have at least something coming our way on Tuesday. A couple go very severe.

Still way too far in advance than anything other than maybe a cursory look.

[stainesbloke]

21 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFSP has a decent snowfall for this area...also worth noting a lot of the GFS ensembles have at least something coming our way on Tuesday. A couple go very severe.

Still way too far in advance than anything other than maybe a cursory look.

Agree, it’s great to have some chance of a decent snow event but it’s too far ahead to get hopes up

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, jright35 said:

After all of Toms work on Channel Lows this week it would be very fitting for Tuesdays possible event to come off!

Ah yes, now if it came off, I would call it a reverse Channel Low. One that was trying to introduce colder air. Back in '60s and '70s,  I understood the term to mean a Low entering the Channel, from the S.W. but trying to dislodge, already entrenched cold air.

Regards,

Tom. 

[snowblind]

Felt positively sub-tropical out there today. Max was a bit warmer than expected at 10.2C. Still 8.2C now.

[southbank]

Think we have been bang unlucky this winter with the roll of dice relating to SSW at the end of December which left a daughter vortice right where we didn’t want it. No mistaking the MRF /LRF have all struggled how the energy coming away from this vortice. I’m beginning to resign myself it just may not happen as more and more enables are trending higher 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just wanted to pop this in here. A little tip for those new members who've just started to look at Synoptic Charts.

When I first became a member of NW back in 2005, I would get very excited if I saw a chart, full of purples and deep blues with a deep low, stuck over the U.K. I would think we were in for a "Day After Tomorrow", scenario. I soon learned  however, that wasn't the case.

Let's take a look at the 500 hpa 12z ECM Forecast Chart, for 1st Feb:

At face value, it looks impressive!!

But if we look at the 850 hpa 12z ECM Forecast Chart for the same date, not quite so impressive now:

The strong winds associated with this Low have "mixed out", the cold air. The general "rule of thumb" for seeing snow at ground level, would be to have an 850 hpa, upper air temperature of -5c or below.

I'll pop up these links, from  threads from the Learner's Area, that describe in detail the meaning of 500 hpa and 850 hpa, temperatures. There's a lot of very informative detail in there from our own, Nick Finnis and also John Holmes.

500 hpa thread:

 

 

850 hpa thread:

 

As Daniel Smith stated 5 hours ago:

Quote:

"So the ECM on it's own with a fully developed low, however ICON has a similar track but as a shallower feature, this would probably be ideal for ensuring less warm sector and an all snow event !. 

A more shallow low and we'd likely see LESS mixing out, of the cold air.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

[Paul Sherman]

So perusing the Mod Thread

Is it OFF again 

 

[Coopsy]

35 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

So perusing the Mod Thread

Is it OFF again 

 

They’re all having a go at each other . It’s a mess it really is . Came in here for some sanity. At least we realise here in the SE thread that some of us have a go at forecasting. Some get it right, some get it wrong. The rest of us are just snow lovers that like some banter and if it snows, bonus. 

Edited January 25, 2019 by CanadianCoops

[Matty J]

MOD thread is a mess because you’ve got those in the North that are happy at the output and those in the South moaning and throwing toys!

All i want to see is a little snow, is that really asking too much?

[Snow Queen one]

This is an oasis of calm away from the mad thread.  Sitting here in my hot tub watching the planes fly over. No clouds only the steam from the water. Lol

[Coopsy]

Just now, Snow Queen one said:

This is an oasis of calm away from the mad thread.  Sitting here in my hot tub watching the planes fly over. No clouds only the steam from the water. Lol

I’m back to Canada next month. Hot tub and snow all the way   but still it’s nothing like snow in your own back yard. Hopefully you’ll get to see snow in the hot tub this winter

[cheeky_monkey]

Just now, CanadianCoops said:

I’m back to Canada next month. Hot tub and snow all the way   but still it’s nothing like snow in your own back yard. Hopefully you’ll get to see snow in the hot tub this winter

no snow in Calgary right now...another Chinook rolled in yesterday 

[Coopsy]

3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

no snow in Calgary right now...another Chinook rolled in yesterday 

Yeah I see that. The south facing mountains in Canmore have very little snow on them this year. I’m heading up into the mountains to get the guaranteed snow. I always loved the chinooks during a cold winter. One year I saw the temp on my deck go from -15 to plus 10 in a few hours. 

Are you in Calgary now rather than Edmonton? 

Edited January 25, 2019 by CanadianCoops

[Snow Queen one]

7 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

I’m back to Canada next month. Hot tub and snow all the way   but still it’s nothing like snow in your own back yard. Hopefully you’ll get to see snow in the hot tub this winter

Hopefully I love sitting in the hot tub when it's snowing lol.  When my kids were young they used to play in the snow then strip off and jump in the tub to warm up dry off put dry clothes on and repeat lol

[Paul Sherman]

Whilst we are awaiting some snow and I have you  boys on here, some advice please

We are having our first Netweather Canadian Chasing this year in July and landing in Calgary on the 14th July

Can I ask you guys what Hotel would you suggest for us to use as a base, closeish to the Airport. Hopefully you know some nice eateries as well or suggest some close to Calgary as well for our initiation meeting etc

Thanks in Advance

Paul

[Coopsy]

Just now, Snow Queen one said:

Hopefully I love sitting in the hot tub when it's snowing lol.  When my kids were young they used to play in the snow then strip off and jump in the tub to warm up dry off put dry clothes on and repeat lol

Ah there’s nothing better. Great memories for them. I really do hope we get some this year 

[Snow Queen one]

So do I.  Maybe next week we might get lucky

[cheeky_monkey]

18 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Yeah I see that. The south facing mountains in Canmore have very little snow on them this year. I’m heading up into the mountains to get the guaranteed snow. I always loved the chinooks during a cold winter. One year I saw the temp on my deck go from -15 to plus 10 in a few hours. 

Are you in Calgary now rather than Edmonton? 

i'm in Edmonton but my company has offices in Calgary and Red Deer.

Spent a week in Kanasksis in June though

Edited January 25, 2019 by cheeky_monkey

[Coopsy]

13 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Whilst we are awaiting some snow and I have you  boys on here, some advice please

We are having our first Netweather Canadian Chasing this year in July and landing in Calgary on the 14th July

Can I ask you guys what Hotel would you suggest for us to use as a base, closeish to the Airport. Hopefully you know some nice eateries as well or suggest some close to Calgary as well for our initiation meeting etc

Thanks in Advance

Paul

Hi Paul

Ive usually stayed at the Hilton downtown - which is about 20-25 mins from the airport. This comes in a little on high end. But best western downtown is good I hear at more reasonable prices.

The Nash is a good place to eat on 11th Street. But honestly any pub or restaurant will be good compared to here IMO 

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, CanadianCoops said:

Hi Paul

Ive usually stayed at the Hilton downtown - which is about 20-25 mins from the airport. This comes in a little on high end. But best western downtown is good I hear at more reasonable prices.

The Nash is a good place to eat on 11th Street. But honestly any pub or restaurant will be good compared to here IMO 

Thats Brilliant

Have looked at the Bessie Wessie as one of the possibles so good you mentioned that, and will defo check out Nash as well

Thanks for the Swift Reply

[Coopsy]

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i'm in Edmonton but my company has offices in Calgary and Red Deer.

Spent a week in Kanasksis in June though

I do like Kananaksis. I always used to fish at the upper kananaskis lake. Here’s a pic I took of my mate when he came to visit 

Edited January 25, 2019 by CanadianCoops