SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[snowblind]

Still made it down to -1.3C last night before the mist and drizzle arrived. Now 1.5C.

[Kent Blizzard]

Let's hope this milder dull damp muck doesn't hang about too long!!!

[Matty88]

5 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Let's hope this milder dull damp muck doesn't hang about too long!!!

Damp mild is here until Sunday then all change back to cold, but massive uncertainty for next week - models this morning show it turning mild from Weds/Thurs, but also the risk of it staying cold with substantial snow, all to play for again as usual! Hope we all get the snow we deserve soon 

[kold weather]

Regardless of what happens past Wednesday more and more models are developing a low either over N France or the channel on mon-tues.

Both the GFS para and ECM produce significant snow for the SE (para goes for 10-20cms, similar from the ECM) so it's well worth keeping a sharp eye on that, it is gaining traction on the ensembles as well...

[Lampostwatcher]

im only interested in the short term 

0-7 days

and the ecm is showing snow chances weds

and gfs from sunday to weds

[tcc]

22 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Regardless of what happens past Wednesday more and more models are developing a low either over N France or the channel on mon-tues.

Both the GFS para and ECM produce significant snow for the SE (para goes for 10-20cms, similar from the ECM) so it's well worth keeping a sharp eye on that, it is gaining traction on the ensembles as well...

Yep definitely KW! Just hope it holds or gets better for us down here. Who knows could potentially end up being best chance of decent snow this winter! (Although obviously I hope not!), over the weekend it will come into the HIRES range so we can either discount it or start the countdown.

[kold weather]

ICON also has made more of it on its 06z run, though a touch marginal the further west you go, though I suspect like Tuesday, timing would be important. Anyway ICON basically follows the M3 for snow and then up through to Norfolk on a NE heading. East Anglia gets 15cms on this run.

GEM also has it, so we are getting some good agreement now.

[alexisj9]

Still some snow about in the hills this morning, no doubt about to disappear in this drizzle though. 

[Chris101]

Morning All,

Well nice to see people in here looking at what could be on offer in the next few days rather than the middle of next week.

One low at a time, thats all we can really look at........Sundays low track is pretty much agreed to bring the colder air back in to the UK.

Now Mon/Tues is where us guys need to pay attention over the next few runs.

Don't need to get to hung up on the Lp after that, Sundays Lp took most of this week to finalise some sort of track.

[turkishfella]

[lawrenk]

A nice upgrade on the MOs mid and long rangers today IMO.

For all the talk of model (the ones we see) inconsistencies and “wobbles” the Met seem to be becoming more bullish which has to be good news.

Think it’s going to get busy in here after the weekend!

[Snipper]

All seem to be back on the happy pills on the other thread. 

[kold weather]

I'm sure we will all be off them again and back on the Prozac by 8pm tonight!

I notice some Met office employees are talking about possible event for the south on Tuesday, may not be a big area but all models are showing at least something from this, even the more southerly GFS op has something for Kent...however these features are horribly hard to predict, I've seen them bust even at 24hrs before.

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'm sure we will all be off them again and back on the Prozac by 8pm tonight!

I notice some Met office employees are talking about possible event for the south on Tuesday, may not be a big area but all models are showing at least something from this, even the more southerly GFS op has something for Kent...however these features are horribly hard to predict, I've seen them bust even at 24hrs before.

Worse than that, I've seen them fine in the models, right through, but go slightly to far south on the day match 2013 there were two that done this, although the second did give a good covering to Kent and east Sussex.

Edited January 25, 2019 by alexisj9

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, Snipper said:

All seem to be back on the happy pills on the other thread. 

It's all gone good, it's all gone bad; to thrive in the model thread you'd best be barking mad...

[username home]

39 minutes ago, Snipper said:

All seem to be back on the happy pills on the other thread. 

the pseudo experts in there are hilarious. 

[yamkin]

UK COLD WEATHER LEVEL 2 YELLOW ALERT ISSUED

https://tinyurl.com/y9a8ypc6

[Tom Quintavalle]

Afternoon all,

Like a lot of members was pretty underwhelmed by the overnight runs, when I turned on my Laptop this morning!!

I just want to share an incident that myself and my Wife, witnessed a couple of mornings ago. Please bear with me, as I think it's very relevant to some of the behaviour expressed on the Model thread.

Colette and myself had to go and pick up a prescription, from her G.P's. Colette has remained on this G.P.'S books, even though we live out of that area. They've agreed to keep seeing her, as her family have been with the Practice, all her life. Although we never met when we were younger, I lived in the same area and know it like the "back of my hand".

After dispensing her prescription, we then got a bus back home. A young man got on the bus just after us but didn't have any money, on his Oyster Card. The Bus Driver wouldn't let the chap get on and was met with a stream of abuse, including, "I can't be f----d, to walk three stops." We were both gobsmacked!!

For any of you that know the area, I'm talking about the Bus Stop opposite the Garage in Burnt Ash Lane and the young man wanted to go to Grove Park. He looked a reasonably fit young guy. He would have completed that walk in about 15 minutes or so!! We see this sort of behaviour, so many times. When I was in my teens, my parents didn't have the money, to give us for bus fares. More often than not, we had to walk!! I remember walking home from the Biggin Hill Air Fair to New Street Hill, one year. I'd spent all my money at the Fair. That is a distance of 7 and a bit miles, which took nigh on 3 hours!!

Jeez!! When I was 13/14, I had a paper round, that took quite a bit longer than 15 minutes and completed in all sorts of Weather. I can remember getting back home from my Paper Round on one occasion, in the late '60's with thick snow on the ground and temps., well below freezing. Evidently, Mum said I went "white" and started shaking. Perhaps I was suffering from a touch of Hypothermia but a hot cup of Mum's tea, soon did the trick!!

The point I'm trying to make is that, this sort of behaviour and some of the attitude we see expressed on the Model thread, is very symptomatic of today's, "Fast Food Society".

Too many people demand something, yesterday and don't have any patience, these days!! 

I'm still of the belief that we will soon turn the corner and experience some much colder weather, as we enter February.

Especially, after my telephone conversation with local Meteorologist, Ian Currie. Also think today's METO updates, are very positive. I'm still of the opinion that Tuesday could deliver our Region, a rain to snow event. Certainly, something to keep an eye on!!

Regards,

Tom.   

 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by TomSE12

[steveinsussex]

Fully expecting the low to either run into France so it’s all too far south or run through the midlands so it’s too far north 

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Fully expecting the low to either run into France so it’s all too far south or run through the midlands so it’s too far north 

Northern France would be very good! History tells us these rarely trend further north for first time this winter we’re in firing zone fingers crossed after winter so far. 

[steveinsussex]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Northern France would be very good! History tells us these rarely trend further north for first time this winter we’re in firing zone fingers crossed after winter so far. 

Aye but all too often we have seen them trend further and further south

 

fingers crossed

[Met4Cast]

Certainly worth keeping an eye on Tuesday night/Wednesday which has the potential to be the snowiest spell of the season so far. 

EC Det certainly at the more extreme end of possibilities 

GFS sends the low into France though forms a secondary low just to the SE of the region

UKMO similar to the GFS

So the ECM on it's own with a fully developed low, however ICON has a similar track but as a shallower feature, this would probably be ideal for ensuring less warm sector and an all snow event 

Certainly one to watch in the coming days!

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

It's all gone good, it's all gone bad; to thrive in the model thread you'd best be barking mad...

I have to be careful about what I say about those on that thread. Might get another warning point. 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

I have to be careful about what I say about those on that thread. Might get another warning point. 

We can look at our warning points together

[stainesbloke]

Some interesting weather possible for next week, if all goes well our region could get a decent snowfall.