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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

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Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
  • Location: Heybridge, Essex!
43 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Patience. It's barely started. Beast from the East didn't strike until March.

And i missed that as i was in the Caribbean! 

Hence my impatience at waiting for a decent snow event. Knowing my luck it will come end of feb/early march when I’m away again

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
35 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Lottie,

I wouldn't give up hope just yet. MeteoGroup are still banging your drum, in East Kent. They are suggesting that ppn will pivot over you and as the flow turns in between N and NE, overnight, East Kent will see further Wintry Showers, well into tomorrow. Ben Rich stated giving a covering, especially over high ground. You did, after all, win my Snow Depth Cup due to your location and elevation!! :oldgood:

Here is the HIRLAM Model's view of the situation, at midnight:

image.thumb.png.8a48785a319888d34882a742a82fddbd.png

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

Thanks Tom!

Currently 0.7c here with a DP of 0.3c and it’s SNOWING!! Only light snow and not laying yet but I’m happy all the same....was saying goodnight to my 11 year old at the time. Asked if that meant he could have tomorrow off school as surely the bus can’t get him down the hill. Mentioned I can drive in the snow...don’t think he believed me!

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
1 minute ago, Matty J said:

And i missed that as i was in the Caribbean! 

Hence my impatience at waiting for a decent snow event. Knowing my luck it will come end of feb/early march when I’m away again

Oh i feel your pain

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Interesting that Hirlam 12z still going for snow hanging on in the far east tonight, east Kent looking good for a couple of cm's I'd say, and even moving back westwards for a while by 6am.:oldsmile:

EDIT...Thats the 12z, 18z out soon.

hirlam-1-13-0.png

hirlam-1-17-0.png

It’s already started building on the live radar around Folkestone.

There could be some very surprised people in the morning 

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
10 minutes ago, Matty J said:

And i missed that as i was in the Caribbean! 

Hence my impatience at waiting for a decent snow event. Knowing my luck it will come end of feb/early march when I’m away again

More than happy to swap snow here for the Caribbean if you want!

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
29 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Nothing of note over Boxley Maidstone, to me looks like a Medway shield.

You're turn will be tomorrow-still better than my area of NW Kent no settling snow tonight and probably just about too far west for the lot over the rest of Kent (when it's actually cold enough to settle tomorrow.) Although as BBC said it could reach as far inland as East/SE London for a time so we live in hope!

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Just taken my girls back,all I have is rain im afraid,hint of some sleetyness as I got back to my flat in northiam,but it is 70m asl

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Just want to make a quick comment on the 12z runs. Still looking like local Meteorologist Ian Currie isn't going to be far off the mark, if the Models are to be believed. His "few bites at the cherry" comment, seem to be ringing true.

All the Models I've looked at, seem to suggest the next "bite of the cherry" Northerly, will come between Saturday and Sunday. The ICON view of the synoptic set-up come Saturday evening, is pretty typical of all the Model runs, I've seen this evening but the ridge soon topples and so we move on to the next "bite" and hopefully the one which will benefit all. 

      12z ICON (22.00). SAT.26th JAN.

 image.thumb.png.1278ed8030fb2714d6f3c571a2a1f76e.png

As I stated this morning, each subsequent Arctic attack seems to be backing the pattern westward each time, and hopefully will allow, a more definitive Arctic attack.

       12z GFS (01-00). FRI.1st FEB.

image.thumb.png.70035801ceccaf2799c3fe29e90ebbba.png

The GFS chart above showing a more substantial Northerly and as Mr.Currie suggested a couple of weeks ago, perhaps veering N.E., after a day or so. The ECM (t240) is fairly similar to the above chart but perhaps a day slower to show the evolution of an Arctic sourced Northerly.

Interestingly but obviously, way out in la, la land, the evolution of this pattern goes on to facilitate a Scandinavian High to form further on into February, just as Ian Currie suggested that kind of scenario may happen. See GFS chart below:

         12z GFS (01.00) 7th FEB.

image.thumb.png.0a72a13807b0e39af404f7c09187078b.png

I should imagine that a lot of members from around the region are hoping that Ian Currie has called this kind of Synoptic evolution, correctly.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

    

 

 

 

Edited by TomSE12
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Posted
  • Location: Cambs/Herts border, 52.13 N 0.02E 14m ASL
  • Location: Cambs/Herts border, 52.13 N 0.02E 14m ASL

Hail shower around 16.00, an occasional few seconds of tiny snowflakes since then but mainly if anything has been falling it's just very faint drizzle, 0.3C now.

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Just before I retire to bed, just want to post up the Dutch Radar and their Forecast for Sneeuw chances, in the East of our region:

https://www.buienradar.nl/

Very best of luck to all. Night, night.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Ps. Sorry you need to click on SNEEUW, which is depicted in yellow.

 

Edited by TomSE12
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
1 minute ago, Gazza said:

Good news with tonight's gfs run.  Next wks potential cold spell being b/fwd to the wk-end!

Brought Forward  What you Mean......What you Mean......Before Day 10 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms in summer, cold/snow in winter
  • Location: Herne, Kent
1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Brought Forward  What you Mean......What you Mean......Before Day 10 

Earlier and better ridging towards Greenland leading to earlier northerly for UK by end of wkend. Just one run but promising!

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Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Weather Preferences: Deep untouched powdery snow and red hot beaches sipping cocktails
  • Location: Canvey Island

Outside my work right now in basildon- it was beautiful snow fall so pretty to see proper fluffy flakes.

20190122_202546.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Lol

Look at the Pivot on the radar, its actually moving NNW about 50 miles out from the Estuary, now where is that going ??

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Posted
  • Location: Norman, Oklahoma (University of Reading in the UK)
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW! And a good thunderstorm
  • Location: Norman, Oklahoma (University of Reading in the UK)

This thing is pivoting! Radar from 21:00 skip to Latest really shows it well.

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lol

Look at the Pivot on the radar, its actually moving NNW about 50 miles out from the Estuary, now where is that going ??

Interesting if that carries on! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bromley
  • Location: Bromley

To me that pivot could go all the way round into East Anglia? I’m not sure because in my ideal world it would come all the way round to south east London but that does look unlikely What are we thinking?

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
6 minutes ago, James Gold said:

To me that pivot could go all the way round into East Anglia? I’m not sure because in my ideal world it would come all the way round to south east London but that does look unlikely What are we thinking?

Radar watch lol

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

I would say places like Southwold, Felixstowe, Lowestoft and Yarmouth must be in with a shout first of all

Lets see how the next few frames go

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I would say places like Southwold, Felixstowe, Lowestoft and Yarmouth must be in with a shout first of all

Lets see how the next few frames go

Which radar are you using ?

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