SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Kent Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

A few of the 6z models certainly showing a more pronounced risk of something a little more organised for the South-East this evening/tonight 

As the low clears to the South-East the PPN wraps around and comes down from the NE skimming EA and crossing the SE corner. It hasn't shown up on previous model runs so very likely to be a nowcast situation. A surprise 1-2cm for a couple of lucky spots?

And in this country, that's enough to create a bit of chaos 

Edited January 22, 2019 by Kent Blizzard

[Met4Cast]

10 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

And in this country, that's enough to create a bit of chaos 

I think the bigger concern will be ice rather than any snow that falls 

[Uxbridge90]

Doesn't look like there's too much to get excited about but would be nice to see a bit of snow.

[kold weather]

Even without snow this is quite a pleasant day so far,wonderful sunshine, something that has been a little lacing so far this month.

[Wimbledon88]

Cold rain is my prediction for later. No snow. Not intense enough anyway looking at the radar. 

Up to 7c in the capital. Possibly go a bit higher. 

I think I ll go back to looking forward to storms and rain. At least you know where you are with that type of weather.

Weekend looking quite wet according to met forecast.  

Edited January 22, 2019 by Wimbledon88

[Dami]

meanwhile in Bedford, I made hubs and myself Jacket potatoes for lunch and hubs had beans and cheese on his. That's as exciting as it gets.

[Nick F]

Dew points generaly a little too high for snow atm, though they only need to drop by one or two degrees to get snow falling to surface, temps maybe too high to settle though, need to be 150m> for guarantee perhaps, after dark DPs should lower enough though if showers still around. Showers of a wintry mix showing up in west of our area now

DPs

temps

 

Edited January 22, 2019 by Nick F

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HIRLAM picked the low out Sunday night... Its not a new thing it's just the HIGH res models have been really struggle with it. 

 

Nice to see PPN coming in now although a little earlier than most wanted there is a lot of it and I think some of us will actually get a surprise out of this... temps should start dropping as the soon goes down and it clouds over..

DPs touch and go but getting there

Temps to high currently need them to come down:

NICK beats me to it ...again.... 2-0 to nick

Edited January 22, 2019 by Surrey

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If that all fell as snow out west (which it wont) then all of us would be pretty much nailed on for a good few CMs... Im hoping 2 things.. ONE the PPN keeps the intensity and peps up with the formation of that low and the trough..

and 2 that it slows down and temps fall away, which they soon will be very quickly..

[yamkin]

Part of the MetO's latest LRF states the following, 'As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds.'

[Daenerys]

Beautiful day here in Epsom. I can see clouds building up towards my west, so fingers crossed we may see a little something later. 

I'm up near Epsom Downs later, hoping the higher I go I may see a blinking snowflake

 

 

[kold weather]

Trough coming through quicker than the models are predicting (the GFS from a few days ago timing looks better). Probably means most will end up just on the wrong side of marginal unless the showers strengthen to a similar level as those in the NW, which is unlikely. Maybe the Downs might may have a shot above 150m but we will see, for most I'm thinking probably rain/sleet.

[lottiekent]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Hirlam must have it right? Or not.. Look at the differences haha! I love this!  We are looking at 30 day long range models, past 120 hrs all winter for charts.. and we cant get agreement at T+6 T+12 hours.. LOL!! 

 

EURO4 00z is actually in pretty decent agreement with ICON 06z which leads me to believe that the EURO4  is leading the way... Be interesting what the EURO4 06z shows.. 

 

 

I'll take that thank you 

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11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Trough coming through quicker than the models are predicting (the GFS from a few days ago timing looks better). Probably means most will end up just on the wrong side of marginal unless the showers strengthen to a similar level as those in the NW, which is unlikely. Maybe the Downs might may have a shot above 150m but we will see, for most I'm thinking probably rain/sleet.

There is actually something very interesting going on... The formation of that little shallow low is what im trying to find because around now we should start to see signs of it.. 

Looking at the surface wind chart it looks like its just starting to show its face 

Interesting direction of arrows over central southern England 

PPN gaining strength over land is another tell tell sign that there is a trough or something pepping up the PPN ... 

Live SLP nothing of note yet..

There is 2 areas on the live radar that I think could be the start of it playing the radar back and forward a million times..

 

The only model(s) going for the further North option are NNM and Net weather in house model... The rest go for the southern circle 

 

I might have this completely wrong its not beneficial to me but more for those in Eastern areas... You want the more northern option ideally.. NNM sucks at this stuff but it is a naughty 06z update for those in Kent

 

 

Edited January 22, 2019 by Surrey

[Tn9]

13 hours ago, snowbob said:

As far as I know Tamara has left and carinthian I think it was.

has left to Due to comments over posting his snowy home town pics I believe.

but I may be wrong

appologies if I am.

Oh noooo....NSSC... This forum will be a much colder place without her.. Shame she could not pass that on to our winter so far ...  hope you are wrong

 

 

 

[kold weather]

Yeah Surrey its certainly something worth watching, could be a quick fire 2-4cms IF that little low does develop like a few models are suggesting. I'd keep an eye on the surface wind reports, any signs of an earlier development and the far SE could be in for a surprise fall of snow tonight.

Also this trough does look like its strengthening thanks to peak temperatures, some fairly impressive radar returns showing up now and the stronger they get the better the chances of pulling down the snow level.

Trough looks sharpest further south looking at the surface wind reports, I'd expect that's the location to key into rather than the further north location but still worth watching.

 

Edited January 22, 2019 by kold weather

[saint]

Herts Highways are out gritting and have said on Twitter they’re expecting snow showers later today and through the evening.

[Mapantz]

17 minutes ago, Surrey said:

PPN gaining strength over land is another tell tell sign that there is a trough or something pepping up the PPN ... 

Hi Surrey

The trough is now running through an area of strong PVA, shown on the vertical velocity chart below. That's the reason for a slight increase in precip intensity.

PVA does begin to weaken as it moves further East, but Kent still holds on to the strong PVA as we head through the night.

Edited January 22, 2019 by Mapantz

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Just now, Mapantz said:

Hi Surrey

The trough is now running through an area of strong PVA, shown on the vertical velocity chart below. That's the reason for a slight increase in precip intensity.

PVA does begin to weaken as it moves further East, but Kent still holds on to the strong PVA as we head through the night.

Sweet as, thank you! Im wondering if evaoprative cooling will help 

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah Surrey its certainly something worth watching, could be a quick fire 2-4cms IF that little low does develop like a few models are suggesting. I'd keep an eye on the surface wind reports, any signs of an earlier development and the far SE could be in for a surprise fall of snow tonight.

Also this trough does look like its strengthening thanks to peak temperatures, some fairly impressive radar returns showing up now and the stronger they get the better the chances of pulling down the snow level.

 

Yep I hope so... Thats what we want and need to bank on... No good light PPN will be all rain but in the heavier stuff it it mixes down the colder air enough.. then some could see some juicy flakes mixed in 

[alexisj9]

20 minutes ago, Surrey said:

There is actually something very interesting going on... The formation of that little shallow low is what im trying to find because around now we should start to see signs of it.. 

Looking at the surface wind chart it looks like its just starting to show its face 

Interesting direction of arrows over central southern England 

PPN gaining strength over land is another tell tell sign that there is a trough or something pepping up the PPN ... 

Live SLP nothing of note yet..

There is 2 areas on the live radar that I think could be the start of it playing the radar back and forward a million times..

 

The only model(s) going for the further North option are NNM and Net weather in house model... The rest go for the southern circle 

 

I might have this completely wrong its not beneficial to me but more for those in Eastern areas... You want the more northern option ideally.. NNM sucks at this stuff but it is a naughty 06z update for those in Kent

 

 

Is there a problem if both happen, looks very messy.

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Just now, alexisj9 said:

Is there a problem if both happen, looks very messy.

Both wont happen we don't know yet were or if this little feature is going to crop up.. But check out the diffrence on radar in the last hour.. 

[Kent Blizzard]

Reports that in the heavier stuff, big flakes are falling Cheshire, Derbyshire etc.....

Just going yo see what the DPs are currently in them areas.

Edited January 22, 2019 by Kent Blizzard

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Just now, Kent Blizzard said:

Reports that in the heavier stuff, big flakes are falling Cheshire, Derbyshire etc.....

Reports of snow out west slowly coming in now... good signs! 

https://uksnowmap.com/

[kold weather]

I'd watch the mass from Oxford to Reading. Quite strong and as it heads eastwards into hopefully cooling daytime temperatures I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow reports coming in from this area as it heads towards the London area.