SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Nick F]

06z GFS making more out of that trough feature running east bringing spell of sleet or snow to our region tomorrow late afternoon and evening, something to watch at last? Lampposts will come handy after dark.

 

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS making more out of that trough feature running east bringing spell of sleet or snow to our region tomorrow late afternoon and evening, something to watch at last? Lampposts will come handy after dark.

 

But then it somehow has found some rain for all on Thursday, not sure where that has come from.

[Buzzit]

Had a red sky this morning (so I will play Shepherds Warning) I feel a very good chance of a snowy end to the overnight action.. in any case I expect a real mare of a morning commute.. I look forward to the next set of model updates and following the radar later today

[Coopsy]

25 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS making more out of that trough feature running east bringing spell of sleet or snow to our region tomorrow late afternoon and evening, something to watch at last? Lampposts will come handy after dark.

 

Based on those times and position of precip it could well be quite a few hours worth too. Interesting

[Nick F]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

But then it somehow has found some rain for all on Thursday, not sure where that has come from.

That’s because winds switch more to a westerly introducing milder air and Atlantic fronts, mild blip Thurs-Sat until cold front sweeps south late Saturday and colder N to NWly flow returns.

[snowray]

06z Euro4 looking decent enough for us too for a little snow for tomorrow from the trough moving west, its a bit of a stingy model for snowfall so this is pretty good. Nothing on the cold front though, might be ok though at altitude like up at Steve M's gaff.

[lassie23]

it's 2 c here at the moment

[craigore]

Nearly 12oclock

Frost still on back lawn

Temp 0.8c  

[Wimbledon88]

Wtf, I see they have opened Spring 2019 Moans Ramps and Chat forum. On January 21st!!!!

We are witnessing this site's slow painful demise into utter madness.  

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Wtf, I see they have opened Spring 2019 Moans Ramps and Chat forum. On January 21st!!!!

We are witnessing this site's slow painful demise into utter madness.  

i wanted to laugh but they dumped the haha smiley YET AGAIN

[Methuselah]

Just now, lassie23 said:

i wanted to laugh but they dumped the haha smiley YET AGAIN

About that, lass...I was offline after eight, yesterday evening. Did something untoward occur, or has laughing been banned for no reason?

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

About that, lass...I was offline after eight, yesterday evening. Did something untoward occur, or has laughing been banned for no reason?

no idea just noticed it now, am i allowed to put lol at the end of this post

[Kent Blizzard]

I can't take the wait, it's like having to wait to have a tooth pulled out by a piece of string and a door handle.

 

[Dami]

I am so excited for tonight's rain, I went and dusted, cleaned and hoovered all of upstairs. Then I made Hubs his favourite eccles cakes. Feel like a domestic goddess.  There is something satisfying about having a good clean and tidy up and doing a little baking. 

Nice to see some level headed discussions on here regarding the weather. 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Probably the hardest frost we’ve had in south London so far this winter, bare ground rock hard and grass all white with frost.

Still looks like we may see some snow falling from showers pushing down to our area on the cold NWly tomorrow afternoon, a trough bringing the showers well inland according to UKMet fax. Other than a few snow grains last week, will be the first time this winter perhaps to see some proper fat flakes!

Think any snow may struggle to settle tomorrow at lower levels, with maxes of 3-4C forecast. Wednesday looks colder with maxes of 2-3C, but dry.

Hopefully in any heavier ppn we can drag down those colder temps 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Kent Blizzard said:

I can't take the wait, it's like having to wait to have a tooth pulled out by a piece of string and a door handle.

 

Something else that's popped up is the little feature that runs down the country tomorrow after the man band looks to form some kind of low on channel just northern of France and just sits there bringing a temp easterly flow... Showers look like they might pop up around Kent 

[TJP85]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

 

Sometimes I wish I lived in Norway. 

[Coopsy]

Can anyone remember the last channel low we got that gave the SE a good dumping? I can remember all the easterlies so not sure if this is much rarer or I just haven't paid attention. I'm thinking early March 2005 was? Gave 8 inches on higher ground in SE. Any others?

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Wtf, I see they have opened Spring 2019 Moans Ramps and Chat forum. On January 21st!!!!

We are witnessing this site's slow painful demise into utter madness.  

I'm starting to consider February a Spring month, in fact from about now.

It can snow of course, yawn, yawn, it did in March last year, it can in April, blah, blah, blah...but the mid Winter freezes that last at least a week or ten days are becoming rarer and rarer. Lovely sunshine here after a frost, and no I refuse to get excited about a blinking frost!

[yamkin]

53 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Can anyone remember the last channel low we got that gave the SE a good dumping? I can remember all the easterlies so not sure if this is much rarer or I just haven't paid attention. I'm thinking early March 2005 was? Gave 8 inches on higher ground in SE. Any others?

I'm sure @TomSE12 will give a good detailed account of the Channel Low 

[leedsnowfan]

57 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Can anyone remember the last channel low we got that gave the SE a good dumping? I can remember all the easterlies so not sure if this is much rarer or I just haven't paid attention. I'm thinking early March 2005 was? Gave 8 inches on higher ground in SE. Any others?

One of the snowfalls in early 2010 was from a westerly front even here in SE...

[yamkin]

Susan Powell's latest BBC weather forecast stated rain/sleet/snow first thing on Tuesday morning??? I'm surprised she did not include hail as well  Talk about covering their backsides  Possible wet snow in the SE in the afternoon  At least she made it very clear that the slight milder temps on Thursday & Friday will only be temporary. Brace yourself for more cold from the weekend 

Edited January 21, 2019 by yamkin

[Coopsy]

51 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Susan Powell's latest BBC weather forecast stated rain/sleet/snow first thing on Tuesday morning??? I'm surprised she did not include hail as well  Talk about covering their backsides  Possible wet snow in the SE in the afternoon  At least she made it very clear that the slight milder temps on Thursday & Friday will only be temporary. Brace yourself for more cold from the weekend 

I'm thinking it'll be sleety overnight into Tuesday morning. Then Tuesday afternoon/evening from say 5pm ish til late a good chance of some wet snow and the odd covering, obviously with elevation a big advantage. It depends how much the ground can dry out/cool down between the two events and how heavy the precip can be for the snow to settle IMO. Fun stuff all the same as it can change every hour. Keep an eye on the Met office forecast/warnings as the event nears - it could go either way

Edited January 21, 2019 by CanadianCoops

[Tom Quintavalle]

59 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Can anyone remember the last channel low we got that gave the SE a good dumping? I can remember all the easterlies so not sure if this is much rarer or I just haven't paid attention. I'm thinking early March 2005 was? Gave 8 inches on higher ground in SE. Any others?

HI CC and Yamkin,

Have just been reading CC's post, can't remember March 2005, tbh. Of course in March 2013, a low nearly made it into the Channel but stayed over N.France . There was an easterly gale causing heavy, drifting snow along the South Coast, Channel Islands and the extreme North of France. March 2013 was the first time, since  1937 that March returned a lower CET (2.7c), than the official Winter months of Dec,Jan and Feb. 

Below, is the archive chart, for midnight 12th March, 2013:

I'll post up another couple of examples of blizzard inducing Channel Lows. in a short while, that occurred on the same date.

These examples occurred on the 30th December, some 16 years apart. Can any member, name the years??

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

 

[Coopsy]

17 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

HI CC and Yamkin,

Have just been reading CC's post, can't remember March 2005, tbh. Of course in March 2013, a low nearly made it into the Channel but stayed over N.France . There was an easterly gale causing heavy, drifting snow along the South Coast, Channel Islands and the extreme North of France. March 2013 was the first time, since  1937 that March returned a lower CET (2.7c), than the official Winter months of Dec,Jan and Feb. 

Below, is the archive chart, for midnight 12th March, 2013:

I'll post up another couple of examples of blizzard inducing Channel Lows. in a short while, that occurred on the same date.

These examples occurred on the 30th December, some 16 years apart. Can any member, name the years??

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

 

Thanks Tom! Where do you get your NCEP archived charts from? 

I think the 2005 was very localised and being up at blue bell hill over 500ft asl really helped. EDIT: I've just found the news report and seemed fairly widespread: 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4312903.stm

Here was the chart for that day.

 

I'm going to guess 1962 and 1978?

Edited January 21, 2019 by CanadianCoops