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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire

Beautiful winters day here. 

-5c on the 9am dog walk with thick frost and blue sky. 

Up on the hills of Ampthill Park with the shallow mist in the walk way valley paths looking down was truly stunning. 

Frost on the ground all day in shaded areas. 

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Evening gang, 

What I think will happen Monday into Tuesday with the front is rain to start and then back edge snow. Models also suck at evaporative cooling which could take place in any heavier bursts, which look quite likely as its a fairly lively cold front. 

Its incredibly difficult in these situations to get the rain/snow switch forcast right. 99% of the time its down to live local observations and data. You win some you loose some. 

I don't think it will settle as the front doesn't stick around long enough for the more conductive conditions for settling snow.

That said, it looks as though the Cheshire gap might come in handy, although a very long land track to our region many times Ive experienced snow from it here. 

Looks like more orginsed showers too could pep up.. 

Tonight will be the 3rs frost on the trot here.. Winter has finally arrived 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

The moon is huge tonight

lass, this is a family forum.

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I always worry when I see snow forecast to cover the 'children', Hotspur!

Anywho, I expect that the greatest danger might (overnight frost permitting) come not from snow but from cold rain/sleet/wet snow falling onto frozen ground? Not a pleasant breakfast-time commute...?

Tried to edit it as meant Chilterns but predictive text made it go all wrong lol!!

Edited by Hotspur62
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Stlll cant quite believe we have hit 96 Pages and not even seen a flake of snow 

That in itself is quite staggering

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey

moon is very clear tonight and full, if we keep the clear skies might get up to see it turn red as it is going to tomorrow morning ..

Attachment-1.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Stlll cant quite believe we have hit 96 Pages and not even seen a flake of snow 

That in itself is quite staggering

Lol you should see how many pages of drivel has been posted in the MOD thread and no snow

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl

What a treat to be out walking the dog today. Clear, crisp air; beautiful, all too rare (this year) winter sun and the sheer joy of white pockets of frost contrasting with brightly coloured sun warmed grass and winter crops.  Invigorating and mood enhancing. 

Still -1, the black car has remained white all day in the shade and will be horrid to clear at 06:45 in the forecasted freezing fog but today, at least, the sun shone and for a few hours all felt right with the world. 

365DABFD-C3F6-460A-BD7B-FA154771BCFB.jpeg

21F050A4-956D-43BE-8379-B2526D6B053F.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
16 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Lol you should see how many pages of drivel has been posted in the MOD thread and no snow

Yes that is also quite staggering I will give you that

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Posted
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent

Country file forecast have gone with a North Easterly Wednesday/Thursday with possibility of a few centimetres over East Anglia, Essex and Kent.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
53 minutes ago, yamkin said:

At last, CMA model is in line with GFS

anim_hlf0.gif

It was showing bitter  easterlies for days and days and now look at it,another model I shall not be looking at again

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

It was showing bitter  easterlies for days and days and now look at it,another model I shall not be looking at again

quite - has the CMA ever led the way ...?

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
8 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

quite - has the CMA ever led the way ...?

Gone off Chinese takeaways now 

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
12 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Gone off Chinese takeaways now 

yes too much MSG !!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

It must be cold it’s -0.1C here where we see UHI in full pelt got down to -2C last night was around 3C this time last night skies cleared.. even colder tonight?

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

We'll we've made it in to the minuses here tonight, -0.3 for now. Didn't quite get there last night.

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Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

 -2 at shoreham airport already so much for mild south coast but local stations on wunder for my area all showing 0°C So dunno bring on spring

638B7C63-EBC4-4ECA-889F-056D091A2C91.jpeg

Edited by JK1
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Posted
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
  • Weather Preferences: weather, especially snow, and a lovely frost
  • Location: Essex near Ongar

-1 here at the moment, just walked to the petrol garage, cars all icing up, nearly went  over as where they use the pressure washer, it was shear ice, blimey dangerous just getting blooming electric :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent

Snow chances are there this week, albeit an outside bet.

Chance 1 - back edge snow as the cold front clears around 5-7am on Tuesday - chance of a slushy layer on the Downs 50% risk

Chance 2 - Kent streamer possibly to set up Thursday/Friday if the Arpege has it right - though it would be a case of wet snow only with altitude and cold rain for most - 20% chance

Both of these worth keeping an eye out for.

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The conditions outside are pretty rare - maybe we average a night like this every other year !!!

- Low heights

- Surface cold pool

- Stationary air

- Low dewpoints

- Cloudless skies

To achieve -5c in the SE without snowcover is quite rare...

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Posted
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
  • Weather Preferences: weather, especially snow, and a lovely frost
  • Location: Essex near Ongar

-1 here at the moment, just walked to the petrol garage, cars all icing up, nearly went  over as where they use the pressure washer, it was shear ice, blimey dangerous just getting blooming electric :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Evening all,

Just want to apologise to the East Kent "posse". My vain attempt to encourage the Models to introduce a "backdoor" NNE on the 24th Jan, now looks to be a bust. Sorry I tried my hardest. So apologies to LOTTIEKENT et al!!

Having viewed the 12z runs, I see that the PV seems to have been on the Viagra, again!! But, as opposed to the 06z runs, the Models HAVE come up with some "orgasmic" runs.

I'd just like to post a couple of quotes from conversations I had with local Meteorologist, Ian Currie, over the past couple of weekends.

On the 6th January, Mr.Currie stated this:

Quote:

"Ian was of the opinion that we will see a pattern change probably just after mid-month. He wasn't of the opinion that we will see strong blocking over Greenland but that positive heights will finally transfer westwards, away from the U.K., with a strong ridge northwards and that a south-eastwards diving low will be the catalyst for ushering in an Arctic northerly. He doesn't yet see height rises over Scandinavia but that may well come, later on in the Winter, although not guaranteed" 

Then, from my conversation with Ian last weekend, he stated this:

As stated last weekend, he doesn't envisage a strong Greenland block but a strong ridge from a mid-Atlantic High, allied to lows tracking on a N.W/S.E. axis, after a few glancing blows that an Arctic sourced Northerly is likely to be on the menu, as we enter the last week of January, the flow may then towards the veer towards the N.E, for a while. Ian is not expecting a prolonged "freeze up" but cold spells punctuated by milder interludes. He does expect this sort of regime to last through February and perhaps into March, too. He expects the flow to be mainly from the North but that there was a chance that a Scandinavian High could develop, as we go through February, although no guarantee."

Having looked at thev12z runs, this type of scenario could be on the cards for around 26th. January.

I'm now going to post up another, "Jam tomorrow" month/year!! But can you make mine a Peanut Butter, please.

 image.thumb.png.9c47a33dee34e6709812dee14daeb579.png

Lassie will have a Pot Noodle, please.

 image.png.9e117aa893c93e2ced9f55fdfc28e66c.png

Anyway, enough of this Tomfoolery. December 8th 1981. I was living in Camberwell, S.E.London with my first Wife, at the time. Heavy rain turned to snow, around breakfast time and left a deposit of a couple of inches of snow. The following couple of weeks, featured another couple of snow events. A C.E.T of 0.3c, was recorded for December 1981.

Todays 12z runs do resemble this type of evolution occurring in the last week of January. It's certainly the type of evolution Ian Currie envisaged when he suggested we may need, a "few bites of the cherry" before we see a substantial, Arctic sourced Northerly. I'm sure those members that experienced this spell, would forego the rather lame event in Feb.1983 and wait another few days, to experience a December 1981 type spell but perhaps LOTTIEKENT, wouldn't agree!!

 image.thumb.png.3daf5831f69e15504dbfb5076fbc60a9.png    

Yes I know it's "jam tomorrow" , again. But believe me a repeat similar to December 1981, really would be a tasty dish to serve up!!

This type of scenario would tie-in with the METO's 16/30 day outlook, " cold and wintry at times, interspersed with milder interludes in the south". That's pretty much what occurred in December 1981.

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Changeable conditions are most likely at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, very cold conditions are more likely to develop through this period with a greater chance of northerly and easterly winds. This brings an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frosts, however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the northwest. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder and wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring a risk of significant snow and ice at times.

Evidently, Lassie's O.F.I. leads the Models 6-0 :shok: So we really do need the Models to take control of proceedings and stick the ball in the net, a few times.

Regards,

Tom.    :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent

-1.3 here so easily the coldest weather since March 2018.

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