SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Snipper]

33 minutes ago, username home said:

Goodness knows why what I posted twice occurred. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Snipper

[alexisj9]

I bet the 18z flips back. 

[steveinsussex]

I see the usual suspects still up to the usual ramping

[Methuselah]

Just now, Snipper said:

So it is downgraded. Nobody on earth can change anything. What will be will be. 

Last time I looked, Snipper, it was an upgrade, then a downgrade, and then an upgrade again; a westward correction swiftly followed by an eastward correction, followed in turn by a...Who cares? Meanwhile, the real weather just jogs along obliviously...as if our collective deliberations were all but meaningless...?

Analysing the weather is okay, but I really do prefer the real thing!

[yamkin]

CMA - Chinese Model is still showing consistency with the very cold air over UK/Ireland 

[john mac]

Worth having a look at the ECM12z completely different to the 00z. Not worth look past 96hrs. All options on the table after that! No model has a handle on this yet!!

[jright35]

2 minutes ago, john mac said:

Worth having a look at the ECM12z completely different to the 00z. Not worth look past 96hrs. All options on the table after that! No model has a handle on this yet!!

Agree 100%

[clark3r]

I got really excited yesterday when most models was showing a very cold spell and snow. I had a horrible feeling yesterday eve the ecm night of been on to something then shocked what has happened today. Only hope is for the models to flip back tomorrow but I can't see that happening

[Ricky c]

Still think we will have epic cold spell before winter finishes. Least it will be frosty this week coming, not boring and cloudy 

[Froze were the Days]

HOT OFF THE PRESS: Post day 10 potential (yes we're back to how it was in December), might be a brief flirting with a northerly but nothing noteworthy in between. Yawn! 

[Laurence Hill]

48 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

I see the usual suspects still up to the usual ramping

and trolling

[fluid dynamic]

27 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

and trolling

true, predicable, simple minded and makes the whole place pointless. The mods can't control them apart from deleting stuff that's not up to spec

[Bedfordblues73]

 

[Ben Lewis]

2 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

have you been scoring a lot then recently !!

The goal net has had more action than I’ve had but that’s another story. 

[yamkin]

JMA - Japanese Model Is Also Going For The Very Cold Air Over UK/Ireland  - Click On The Image

Edited January 19, 2019 by yamkin

[shotski]

2 minutes ago, yamkin said:

JMA - Japanese Model Is Also Going For The Very Cold Air Over UK/Ireland 

As are the extended EPS. 

Whatever way you look at it , it’s going cold for the foreseeable ?

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just spent the last hour or so,  trawling through a  lot of pages on the Model thread, all posts since about 4 pm. Phew!! I'm totally exhausted now. 

Still think we'll see a lot of chopping and changing in the Models, over the next few days. The recent SSW, causing much confusion. As I stated this morning to Lottie and those members in East Kent, even if my IMBY chances of snow have diminished, really would like some members, to get their "snow fix"!! In that respect would love that the JMA model, to have called the Synoptic pattern correctly, as we head through the coming week.

There's really too much Northerly component in the flow, for those of us close by to London. But those members in East Kent, a different matter entirely. 

We would ideally like to see that mid-Atlantic ridge build a little further North, to the "Griceland" area.This would give the perfect NNE flow, for East Kent and with low enough 850's, I'm convinced this sort of pattern would give some considerable snowfall in East Kent, especially over the far eastern part of the North Downs. The key to this evolution ,is hoping the low diving S.E, down the North Sea, clears through cleanly and there's no development of a small low, between Scotland and Norway. This "hanging back" of this small low, prevents those colder 850's moving westwards, into the East of our region. Unfortunately, the so called "bigger" models have that small low between Scotland and Norway. But the JMA model has persisted with the "clean breakaway" scenario, over the last few days. Here's hoping the Japanese model has called this pattern, correctly. If that low can make a clean break SSE, I'm convinced quite a few members in the East of Kent , could see some decent snowfall totals and possibly some "thundersnow", too. A very similar set-up to, 7th February 1983. Here's hoping!! 

Regards,

Tom.  

[lottiekent]

20 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

This would give the perfect NNE flow, for East Kent and with low enough 850's, I'm convinced this sort of pattern would give some considerable snowfall in East Kent, especially over the far eastern part of the North Downs.

You say the nicest things Tom

Fingers crossed though that we all get in on some snow in the next few weeks!

Edited January 19, 2019 by lottiekent

[Matty J]

I love the way the TV forcast shows Tuesdays weather front as rain over the UK and then it crosses 30 miles of English Channel and as soon as it hits Northern France boom instant snow!

[Nick1972]

Good evening folks first post on the forums...i took the plunge and joined yesterday. Ive been using netweather for a few years now but always just looked at the 10 day forecast and Michael Fish's weekly video blog. Well just before Christmas i started looking at the hunt for cold thread and on here as i live in Bedfordshire to see what was happening...well ive always been facinated by the weather and especially snow (im like a big kid when it does lol) but clearly only have a very basic knowledge of meteorology and never realised how many factors govern the weather in not just the U.K. but around the globe its been confusing as well as rewarding reading all the posts from so many on the forum so far....so much to learn but all the respected posters on here have opened my eyes and i just can't stay off here now lol to say it's a rollercoaster is an understatement at the moment lol living where i do in Leighton buzzard we generally need it to be -50 to get snow as the chiltern hills get in the way and we are quite low down ☹ not a good combination when you look forward to snow every winter lol anyway hope i havnt bored you all to death and look forward to making some friends on the forums learning more and more as i go have a great weekend and hopefully we will all be lamppost watching soon ❄

[snowrye]

Welcome to the mad house

[SMU]

Cold here.

-0.3c !

[Snow Queen one]

I have minus 2 in my garden

[Hotspur62]

Looks like the next 7 days are going to be pretty chilly for the SE.Looked at met office and for Orpington the max temps only reach 4 and minimums as low as -2.Granted no snow in the forecast unless things change fairly quickly for the rain currently forecast for Tuesday turning to snow(10% chance imo) but trends are going the right way and it looks like cold PM air for next week,thereafter still very much in the air with nothing ruled out.One thing that is looking likely is that I don’t think we will be getting any mild temps anytime soon.

[John Stevens]

3c here in the Surrey Hills. Damp, dull and boring all day.....