SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[stainesbloke]

A nice memory from this day 6 years ago, when we were living in Staines. For once, west London was in the sweet spot and I measured up to 13cm of snow with a maximum temperature of -2C. No BBQ or chiminea that day

[LightningLover]

Yes, I know it’s technically a weather app, but blooming eck’ , what an absurd and incredible automated forecast!!!

Edited January 18, 2019 by LightningLover

[Katrine Basso]

This morning there has been a light frost which is quickly disappearing from the back garden while the front garden and facing street has no sign of frost.  It is slowly brightening up. The temperature at 8:17 am is -1°C  and the dew point is -3°C.  There is a light breeze.

[Matty88]

A few models are hinting at the possibility of some settling snow tonight - is this being considered? The GFS even hints at some 'significant' accumlations further west of EA/Northampton. 

Unlikely anything too notable but maybe worth watching? Wouldn't be surprised to see a late meto warning issued this eve if precip peps up enough for it to turn to snow

[Kentspur]

29 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi K/s,

Yes agree with all the above comments. Let's get the cold and exact Synoptics in first and the microscale detail will start to become  clearer as we close in on the event. As Kentspur states above an ENE flow, tends to favour the Thames Corridor. A N.E. flow favours an area from mid-Kent down to E.Sussex. This is certainly true for those areas of our region, south of the Thames. Should we really hit the jackpot, re. very low 850's, we could see these "Streamers" merge into a more widespread "Ocean of Snow", for our area. This happened in January 1987.

I'm planning to ring local Meteorologist, Ian Currie, again tomorrow. I want to ask him about his latest thoughts. I also want to put to him a few questions, to him. Ian still provides Forecasts to media outlets.

What Forecasting Tools does he use? I know Ian views the Forecast Model runs. Is he privy to more information, than we have access to? I'm sure his tens of years of taking readings and keeping Weather records, must come into play. Ian is 68 now, so has many years experience, in studying Meteorology.

Which is his preferred Model? I'm sure he'll answer, UKMO but you never know?? Also, how does he rate the ECM and GFS, Models?

As I've stated many times previously on this Forum, Ian has written and co-written many books on the Weather, including the County Weather Book series and a very interesting book about our most severe Winters, entitled Frost, Freezes and Fairs.

https://www.thriftbooks.com/a/ian-currie/303082/

I'm sure these books are no longer in print but Ian does have a few copies left in boxes, in his garage.

I'm not sure if those non-related Weather books, mentioned in the link above, are attributable to Weatherman, Ian Currie?

If any members would be interested in obtaining a copy of one of the above Weather books, I'll ask Ian how much they are (inc.P. & P.)? I want to reiterate, there is no financial benefit in this for yours truly. I regard Ian as a very good friend and really believe that S.E. members would obtain a great deal of enjoyment by owning, one of these books. They really are a must read, for any local Weather enthusiast!!

If there are any other questions members would like me to ask Mr.Currie, please let me know? 

Ian has always been very willing and accommodating, in sharing his thoughts, with me.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Hi Tom,

Enjoyed reading your post their buddy,

I would very much be interested in a book if any become available! Fingers crossed we will soon be into some snowy surprises ❄

[Coopsy]

40 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

As I've stated many times previously on this Forum, Ian has written and co-written many books on the Weather, including the County Weather Book series and a very interesting book about our most severe Winters, entitled Frost, Freezes and Fairs.

https://www.thriftbooks.com/a/ian-currie/303082/

I'm sure these books are no longer in print but Ian does have a few copies left in boxes, in his garage.

I'm not sure if those non-related Weather books, mentioned in the link above, are attributable to Weatherman, Ian Currie?

If any members would be interested in obtaining a copy of one of the above Weather books, I'll ask Ian how much they are (inc.P. & P.)? I want to reiterate, there is no financial benefit in this for yours truly. I regard Ian as a very good friend and really believe that S.E. members would obtain a great deal of enjoyment by owning, one of these books. They really are a must read, for any local Weather enthusiast!!

 

I've got the full set of the county weather book series and still regularly revisit them. I'd love them to bupdate - especially with some of the winters we've had over the last 10 years, and the summer of 2018. Maybe we could persuade him to come out of retirement and update them. I'd certainly buy then newer versions.

[Southender]

29 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

A few models are hinting at the possibility of some settling snow tonight - is this being considered? The GFS even hints at some 'significant' accumlations further west of EA/Northampton. 

Unlikely anything too notable but maybe worth watching? Wouldn't be surprised to see a late meto warning issued this eve if precip peps up enough for it to turn to snow

The further NW you are in this region, the better hope of seeing any snow tonight/early tomorrow. I think you can probably draw a line from the Wash down to the Avon, anywhere South of that its unlikely. I don't think there will be a great deal on the band to be honest, it looks like it will be decaying as it crosses. Perhaps you may see a dusting in your location though, but I think it will predominantly be the higher elevations of Wales/W.Mids and into Yorks etc that may see more appreciable falls.

[Isle of Harry]

Surprised to see there was no hard frost this morning.

Still very chilly and calm with temperatures just below freezing at 0800, it has now risen to 3C.

[James Gold]

As the 6 o clock runs come out, can I just ask how is this wind direction for a Thames streamer? Would it still work or is there too much of a northerly component? 

Edited January 18, 2019 by James Gold

[James Gold]

I’m going to allow myself another ramp post like yesterday. The SE really is getting clobbered — trend still there

Edited January 18, 2019 by James Gold
Adding a chart

[SMU]

31 minutes ago, James Gold said:

As the 6 o clock runs come out, can I just ask how is this wind direction for a Thames streamer? Would it still work or is there too much of a northerly component? 

Thats more a kentstreamer

Winds need to be more ENE

[yamkin]

CMA - Chinese Model is still showing consistency with the very cold air over UK/Ireland

Edited January 18, 2019 by yamkin

[PLANET THANET]

41 minutes ago, Isle of Harry said:

Surprised to see there was no hard frost this morning.

Still very chilly and calm with temperatures just below freezing at 0800, it has now risen to 3C.

well this is Thanet and as I said yesterday,we need our own weather forecast but hopefully the way things are going we could be in with a shout from next week with SNOW !!!

[Bogman]

I do hope these charts verify. Absolute stunning locked in cold.

21 minutes ago, James Gold said:

I’m going to allow myself another ramp post like yesterday. The SE really is getting clobbered — trend still there

 

[Essex Chelle]

Keep seeing winter 1947 mentioned on this site and well ive just been in to town got talking to a lovely older lady I warned her of the up coming very cold temps and to make sure she gets prepared and not to leave the house next week. Her reply was "my dear I lived through the winter of 1947 I still managed to get into work in the city by steam train snow was in 20ft drifts in places" bless her - but I'm taking this as a bit of spooky coincidence she mentioned that year outta all other years she has seen heavy snow

[Bogman]

[Dami]

Rallied the troops at 7am, garden said -1.8c, was 0c when we set out. Apart from Car windows, it didn't appear to be an overly heavy frost here. Maybe a touch of white on the grass.  It was Cold to me but not icy as there was no wind and some cloud. Bubs calls this an ' Elsa day'.

Tis a good thing that these charts change BTW, as one posted on the world that was twitter stated heavy snow on Hubs birthday, He wants a meal out, so not good. However 10 days out charts proclaiming a white out never interest me. A lot can happen.

[steveinsussex]

Charts look great but fully expecting a watered down version of what’s on offer

[yamkin]

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats more a kentstreamer

Winds need to be more ENE

London can still do well out of the wash if it really peps up 

[Laurence Hill]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

London can still do well out of the wash if it really peps up 

What are your thoughts for Tuesday Surrey?

[Tom Quintavalle]

2 hours ago, James Gold said:

As the 6 o clock runs come out, can I just ask how is this wind direction for a Thames streamer? Would it still work or is there too much of a northerly component? 

Hi James,

My fellow Bromleyite. As Steve M. stated above and indeed yourself, too much Northerly component, we both need an ENE, flow.

Experienced a few when I lived with my parents, just off Burnt Ash Lane. 

Archive chart below, of a White Xmas, "Thames Streamer" (with thunder):

Now the archive chart featuring the most potent "Thames Streamer", I've witnessed, again with thunder. I'm sure Steve remembers this:

As Steve suggests, a NE flow, will more than likely give a "mid-Kent to E.Sussex Streamer"

Regards,

Tom. 

 

[James Gold]

4 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi James,

My fellow Bromleyite. As Steve M. stated above and indeed yourself, too much Northerly component, we both need an ENE, flow.

Experienced a few when I lived with my parents, just off Burnt Ash Lane. 

Archive chart below, of a White Xmas, "Thames Streamer" (with thunder):

Now the archive chart featuring the most potent "Thames Streamer", I've witnessed, again with thunder. I'm sure Steve remembers this:

As Steve suggests, a NE flow, will more than likely give a "mid-Kent to E.Sussex Streamer"

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Thank you very much for this Tom, let’s hope for some easterly components then

[tinybill]

With  that  low coming  in it will  interesting  to see what happen  next with all  the  cold air  over us

[yamkin]

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