SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[James Gold]

New GFS looks interesting for snow potential tomorrow, pretty close miss for me in London I guess but for those in East Anglia in this forum it might be a nice surprise 

[James Gold]

Not to worry, this for next Thursday is screaming with snow shower potential for us lot on the 18z GFS

Hope still there

[Alpine glow]

Ramping in the regionals! Yassssss!

My fave time of the year.

I’ve come here to RAMP!!!! ?️

[snowrye]

I just hope it doesn't go belly up,and I hope for an imby perspective,it delivers a bit more than the beast from the east last feb-march

[James Gold]

Well for the purposes of ramping, the MOD thread, yes sometimes prone to exaggeration, is coming out with fantastic lines for our region about this 18z GFS. My favourite is “the SE is getting clobbered”

[Jayces]

Hi All, another year and it's looking like it's time to start lamp post watching again 

I love this site, the community and the model and regional threads provide lots of entertainment.

Fingers crossed after a short roller coaster over the next few days things settle down and GH from cold to colder to freezing and lots of lovely 

[lawrenk]

Not too shabby a GFS run.

Plenty of interest through next week and the some serious cold by the weekend?

[Dbarb]

Everyone is going mad and all I see is a slight ENE component and thats alot of east Anglia out the game like last year. meanwhile Kent and Essex coast will be buried! We need it to be more east south east.

[Jayces]

As always patience is needed. Those posters who I have great respect for are suggesting a possibly long and potentially cold spell really starting next weekend and going on through much of February.

If that happens then in time I expect everyone will benefit from the white stuff 

[weathergeek]

Ooooo it's getting exciting, eh?! Short to mid term and longer term..... all just cold cold cold with lots of snow potential!!! Hoping I can sit back and watch it all mature and unfold..... and not unravel!!!x

[Paul Sherman]

Yh no point in worrying about wind vectors yet, far far too early.

Remember there will be more general areas of snow in troughs etc as well

Like I said 3 days ago.........................ITS COMING!!

[jright35]

Just realised this is my 10 year anniversary in this forum lol ️

Hopfully a year we won’t forget! Bring on next weeks sleepless nights lamp post watching

[snowrye]

Ooohhh its exciting

[Donna3397]

1 hour ago, James Gold said:

“the SE is getting clobbered”

Us lot in the SE do enjoy a good clobbering (of snow)

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, Dbarb said:

Everyone is going mad and all I see is a slight ENE component and thats alot of east Anglia out the game like last year. meanwhile Kent and Essex coast will be buried! We need it to be more east south east.

Yes as Paul Sherman alluded to with such a level of instability troughs and features are certain to pop up over a wider area distribution. I'm sure we will all see some decent snow falls should these charts verify! ENE flow is ideal for the vast population masses in London and the SE but in particularly S/E London and as you say N&W Kent & S Essex+ Northern&Eastern parts of Surrey. but I can see any flow between NE& SE benefiting most of us in SE and EA with this type of set up. 21st January 2013 we had a good dumping with a SEly flow here in NW Kent and SE London which at the time I never thought could happen! It's still the biggest pre February snowfall weve had since early December 2010! Get a nice strong low pressure system to the SE of us like is being modelled and we should be getting in on the act regardless of whether it's a ESE or ENE flow for example

Edited January 18, 2019 by Kentspur

[essexweather]

Increased confidence from the CF of some sleet and wet snow across parts of the region Friday night and early Saturday, mostly higher ground but to low levels in heavier bursts. No accumulations expected, but North Downs wouldn't be out the question for a dusting.

A few of the London airport TAFs have sleet midnight to 07Z Saturday.

[shotski]

7 hours ago, James Gold said:

Well for the purposes of ramping, the MOD thread, yes sometimes prone to exaggeration, is coming out with fantastic lines for our region about this 18z GFS. My favourite is “the SE is getting clobbered”

Yep take it all with a large pinch of salt. It’s going to get cold possibly very cold and we may get some snow but details of reliable snow full I would put down to about 12 hours tops. If anyone says we’re going to get a foot of snow next Thursday on the Mad thread it’s just for fun. Also stick to John Holmes and the anomaly charts for your most realistic view. ?

[lottiekent]

Morning

Currently -1.1c with a DP of -2c. 

[James Gold]

The MOD thread still loaded with positivity for our region specifically next week and beyond, snow still on the cards at the moment with these runs this morning 

[jright35]

Don’t think I’ve ever wished a weekend away so quickly as I am this one lol️️️ Bring on next weeks games!

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z GFS has phenomenal streamer potential next week.

Narnia.....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I think if by say tomorrow night early Sunday the ECM is churning out what is has been now for over 24 hours.. Yes that's more than one run showing similar theme (which is quite stunning anyway) then this place is going into melt down.. And rightly so.. 

I urge people the following just like last year.. we always say, cold first snow later... Things will pop up.. If we cast our minds back to last year some of the region got 2-5cm from a light thames streamer that wasn't forcast on anything at all.. It lasted most of the evening.. 

Troughs, surface lows etc will all crop up in such a cold flow... Add in the current SSTs and it won't take much to start the shower trains.. 

Helllo winter 

[James Gold]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

I think if by say tomorrow night early Sunday the ECM is churning out what is has been now for over 24 hours.. Yes that's more than one run showing similar theme (which is quite stunning anyway) then this place is going into melt down.. And rightly so.. 

I urge people the following just like last year.. we always say, cold first snow later... Things will pop up.. If we cast our minds back to last year some of the region got 2-5cm from a light thames streamer that wasn't forcast on anything at all.. It lasted most of the evening.. 

Troughs, surface lows etc will all crop up in such a cold flow... Add in the current SSTs and it won't take much to start the shower trains.. 

Helllo winter 

That streamer produced the largest snowfall I’d seen all week, so yes I agree that if it’s cold and we’re close to the sea, there’s always the chance

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, James Gold said:

That streamer produced the largest snowfall I’d seen all week, so yes I agree that if it’s cold and we’re close to the sea, there’s always the chance

Yes was a week filled with about 2-3 suprises and is the worst week I have seen high RES models perform. 

Things were happening in real time for the high RES to pick out on the evening run only slightly etc etc.. 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

5 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Yes as Paul Sherman alluded to with such a level of instability troughs and features are certain to pop up over a wider area distribution. I'm sure we will all see some decent snow falls should these charts verify! ENE flow is ideal for the vast population masses in London and the SE but in particularly S/E London and as you say N&W Kent & S Essex+ Northern&Eastern parts of Surrey. but I can see any flow between NE& SE benefiting most of us in SE and EA with this type of set up. 21st January 2013 we had a good dumping with a SEly flow here in NW Kent and SE London which at the time I never thought could happen! It's still the biggest pre February snowfall weve had since early December 2010! Get a nice strong low pressure system to the SE of us like is being modelled and we should be getting in on the act regardless of whether it's a ESE or ENE flow for example

Hi K/s,

Yes agree with all the above comments. Let's get the cold and exact Synoptics in first and the microscale detail will start to become  clearer as we close in on the event. As Kentspur states above an ENE flow, tends to favour the Thames Corridor. A N.E. flow favours an area from mid-Kent down to E.Sussex. This is certainly true for those areas of our region, south of the Thames. Should we really hit the jackpot, re. very low 850's, we could see these "Streamers" merge into a more widespread "Ocean of Snow", for our area. This happened in January 1987.

I'm planning to ring local Meteorologist, Ian Currie, again tomorrow. I want to ask him about his latest thoughts. I also want to put to him a few questions, to him. Ian still provides Forecasts to media outlets.

What Forecasting Tools does he use? I know Ian views the Forecast Model runs. Is he privy to more information, than we have access to? I'm sure his tens of years of taking readings and keeping Weather records, must come into play. Ian is 68 now, so has many years experience, in studying Meteorology.

Which is his preferred Model? I'm sure he'll answer, UKMO but you never know?? Also, how does he rate the ECM and GFS, Models?

As I've stated many times previously on this Forum, Ian has written and co-written many books on the Weather, including the County Weather Book series and a very interesting book about our most severe Winters, entitled Frost, Freezes and Fairs.

https://www.thriftbooks.com/a/ian-currie/303082/

I'm sure these books are no longer in print but Ian does have a few copies left in boxes, in his garage.

I'm not sure if those non-related Weather books, mentioned in the link above, are attributable to Weatherman, Ian Currie?

If any members would be interested in obtaining a copy of one of the above Weather books, I'll ask Ian how much they are (inc.P. & P.)? I want to reiterate, there is no financial benefit in this for yours truly. I regard Ian as a very good friend and really believe that S.E. members would obtain a great deal of enjoyment by owning, one of these books. They really are a must read, for any local Weather enthusiast!!

If there are any other questions members would like me to ask Mr.Currie, please let me know? 

Ian has always been very willing and accommodating, in sharing his thoughts, with me.

Regards,

Tom.