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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018


Blessed Weather

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Such a shame this is 9 days away, so unlikely to verify, but really gets one ramping this kind of chart from the 12z EC with a trough/cold pool in an easterly flow bringing a good dumping of snow for S England and E Anglia

2055758484_ECMWF_216_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr(2).thumb.png.cb589afa4a6ffc4546c16d2de6e3ff82.png

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

'The current Global Forecast System – or the GFS – the United States’ premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it'.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/jan/07/the-national-weather-service-is-open-but-your-fore/

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

Enter the MO thread at your own risk this morning!...It'll be all eyes on Feb now, until tomorrow 

 

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Gone in MOD thread and see the despondency is back after last nights euphoria lol.Has been the pattern for the last week it seems whereby morning is all doom and gloom and by night time champagne corks are popping lol!,Far too much volatility in models atm but dare not post in there for fear of getting your head bitten off.

Today starts mild for this neck of the woods but looks like we will see first appreciable rain for over 3 weeks as front comes down and as it does it turns much colder so chance of Jack Frost overnight.Thurs to Sunday I think will be mainly dry and cold with maxes for our region in 4-6 degree bracket so will feel nippy.No point at lookin* past then as models are all over the place but would love what the ECM LAST NIGHT showed us to evolve

Have a nice day everyone.

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Oh dear,not good in the mod thread,you would have thought that even after all these years,9.9 times out of 10,it will go wrong,the whole northern hemisphere could be covered in snow,the Atlantic frozen solid,yet little old britain will be plus 10c wondering when winter will start

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Posted
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent

Cut to the chase..... the current run shows nothing of any real intrest for the South East. Yes it will be chilly for a few days however it amounts to nothing. Fully aware get the cold first and see what happens and that charts can change with each run.  However as things stand this cold event is unfortunatly being very much over hyped. Time will tell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
13 minutes ago, jright35 said:

Cut to the chase..... the current run shows nothing of any real intrest for the South East. Yes it will be chilly for a few days however it amounts to nothing. Fully aware get the cold first and see what happens and that charts can change with each run.  However as things stand this cold event is unfortunatly being very much over hyped. Time will tell. 

A chilly week of weather ahead, a few flirtations with snow/sleet showers down the Eastern flank over Higher ground at times

No big calls just yet, to early to rule anything out imo whilst we have colder conditions

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

Sadly, my rock solid count down from  last nights ECM to T24 didn't last too long!

Never mind, no doubt the pendulum will swing back again later.

On a positive note, I'm sure we've been in much worse positions in past winters and still plenty of time left.

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire

This mornings run doesn't really show anything of real interest from any of the models, but there is definitely a wintry flavour to proceedings, albeit nothing substantial/to write home about. Overall, as it stands, a bit disappointing.

However I'm sure things can and will change going forward - all eyes on February. We need that easterly to set up (for those that want cold and snow in this region)

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

BBC MONTHLY OUTLOOK recently updated:

Monday 28 January—Sunday 10 February

Colder than average with rain and snow at times

There continues to be the likelihood of some cold, wintry weather through the end of January and early February ... However, indications are that this cold weather is more likely to come in pulses from the north, perhaps with occasionally milder and wetter interludes in-between (unlike the extreme and prolonged cold we experienced during the 'Beast from the East' episode in February/March 2018).
Nevertheless, temperatures are likely to be below the seasonal average more often than not with some sharp night frosts and a mixture of bands of rain and snow moving across the UK. The greatest risk for some significant snowfall appears to be over northern areas.
There are chances of more severe, sustained cold developing (about a 25% probability) - a lesser chance is for much milder and wetter conditions to prevail.

 

..

Well whoopie doo ?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
3 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Enter the MO thread at your own risk this morning!...It'll be all eyes on Feb now, until tomorrow 

 

I thought with so many new posts (without going into the thread) every minute the ramping had moved up a notch from last night...how wrong I was! shows you how desperate many are to see something decent this winter, as so far it's been a write off. Notice another bright and sunny day out there

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 hour ago, lawrenk said:

Sadly, my rock solid count down from  last nights ECM to T24 didn't last too long!

Never mind, no doubt the pendulum will swing back again later.

On a positive note, I'm sure we've been in much worse positions in past winters and still plenty of time left.

Sadly that doesn't mean much...before this winter 'kicked off' we had many background decent signals - solar minimum, global models showing positive signs for cold weather in this part of the world and then a SSW showing up in December and to date this winter has been forgettable. Saying this I'd be very surprised if the rest of the winter was as bad as the first half but doesn't mean we'll get a decent snow event.

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
15 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I thought with so many new posts (without going into the thread) every minute the ramping had moved up a notch from last night...how wrong I was! shows you how desperate many are to see something decent this winter, as so far it's been a write off. Notice another bright and sunny day out there

Dull and Damp Here 

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

Well it looks like most of Europe is warming up too so we are not alone with this tedious winter. 

I thought the experts were predicting that Europe would 'be in the freezer' by this week. Gotta laugh.

Well at least we are finally going to get some useful rain in these parts. 

Screenshot_20190116-114523.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Yeah I'm not seeing much of interest over the next seven days either. 

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

Let's have  some fun

Met Office Forecast showing a Snow Symbol for 10am tomorrow  Pretty much as per Yesterdays BBC Weather Video Posted in here for tomorrow at 8am

Meto Written Forecast

Tonight:

Drier, clear but colder conditions spreading to all parts through the evening. Becoming cloudier and breezier around midnight, with occasionally heavy and perhaps wintry showers by dawn. Minimum temperature 1 °C.

Thursday:

Cold on Thursday morning, but windy towards the coast with occasionally heavy and possibly wintry showers slowly clearing. Drier and brighter through the afternoon. Winds easing. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

i hope an easterly develops whilst Darren bett is on duty, with subzero temps across the whole of the UK. I bet he will still get' at least it will be milder' in his forecast for somewhere in the UK

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

CMA - Chinese Model has really been consistent with the very cold air over the UK/Ireland for a few days now. Very interesting ❄️

anim_kow0.gif

anim_etj1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants

Drizzly - bit chilly - overcast - generally unpleasant

Unless we get sub-zero temps and a blizzard (min 1 only - easy to please)  roll on spring

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