SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[shotski]

Things looking very tasty for late Jan. 

[tinybill]

looking at the models  after  288  hr more then tasty  lets get end of next week   here

Edited January 9, 2019 by tinybill

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

Darren Bett on BBC News evening forecast 

“it’s going to be a mild weekend Rita” 

Cue... his gleaming smile and over excited voice!! 

Well at least someone’s happy to be living in the mildest/ snowless country in Northern Europe 

cannot watch him, rather get forecasts on here

[Sparky68]

-1 on the commute , temperatures going in the right direction at last.

[LightningLover]

2C in Hastings this morning, with a patchy frost on prone surfaces.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Totally agree with the point Steve Murr is making on the Model thread, regarding strong heights over Greenland. This small wedge of heights helped to give around 4 inches of snow, in the Bromley, Kent area. If memory serves, nigh on 8 inches was recorded near Bluewater, Dartford. I'm sure Steve himself, must have done very well at nearby Greenhithe. A very potent "Thames Streamer".

Regards,

Tom. 

[Isle of Harry]

We've had no rainfall here in Broadstairs for almost three weeks now. 

[stainesbloke]

15 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

Darren Bett on BBC News evening forecast 

“it’s going to be a mild weekend Rita” 

Cue... his gleaming smile and over excited voice!! 

Well at least someone’s happy to be living in the mildest/ snowless country in Northern Europe 

Bring back Rob McElwee, he was a proper cold ramper and appeared to love any exciting weather. Now they’re all mild lovers, boring.

Chilly-ish morning with a light frost but the beautiful clear skies have gone, sadly.

Edited January 10, 2019 by stainesbloke

[Reefseeker]

3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Totally agree with the point Steve Murr is making on the Model thread, regarding strong heights over Greenland. This small wedge of heights helped to give around 4 inches of snow, in the Bromley, Kent area. If memory serves, nigh on 8 inches was recorded near Bluewater, Dartford. I'm sure Steve himself, must have done very well at nearby Greenhithe. A very potent "Thames Streamer".

Regards,

Tom. 

I wonder if it is OK to ask here, what is a small wedge of heights? I have seen a fair few mentions of 'wedge of heights' in the model thread of late, but don't know what this means. I had a look at the example you have given, but sad to say I don't know which bit is the small wedge and how this translated into a Thames Streamer? Any guidance would be appreciated:)

As @stainesbloke noted, a nice frosty start here, which required the ice scraper for the college run, but it's back to milky skies again now. It's a funny thing, way back in September I started a long-held hobby to set up a YouTube channel devoted to walks around London, after years of supporting my special needs son to YouTube success with his animating channel, which has meant me attending a lot of YouTube training workshops with him as he is unable to cope alone. Someone else just snuck in with a similar channel about a year before I started, and they are doing a great job, so to differentiate I do a little bit to camera at the start and end of each video. I am frankly terrible in front of my phone selfie-ing away, so have to do constant re-records around my local area for my intros and outros. The weather has been so similar for so long - ie endless milky skies - that waiting for the right day to do a piece to camera that matches the weather on the day I filmed is no longer an issue as they all look the same. Sadly it means each of my 'London' videos have that drab half-light look about them in the greyish twilight of our unmoveable high pressure.I used to wait for a blue skies windless day for filming, but had to give up or I never would have filmed anything this past month or so. I hate wind and rain, don't want it really unless it is a 'reset' (if that even exists), but this living in a tupperware container type of half light is starting to run very thin. Please can the SSW downwell, split or whatever in the right way to affect our bit of the trop favourably.... please....?

AND, to continue the moan, the day we left Cyprus just before Christmas in the teeth of multiple electrical storms and minor earthquakes, the snow fell, and fell, and fell.... and it's still falling:(

Edited January 10, 2019 by Reefseeker

[Katrine Basso]

There was an early light frost which I was surprised as overnight temperatures were forecasted to be 3°C.  It has been cloudy since 9 am.  The temperature is 3°C so the overnight to early morning temperatures must have been lower than 3°C and it feels like 1°C.  If short term forecasts for 12 hours and less are becoming difficult to forecast then anything longer must be taken with a pinch of salt.  I am only looking at hourly forecasts and nothing longer as by Monday short to mid weather forecasts will have changed several times.  Look at the BBC YouTube weather forecasts for the period of January 2009 and you will see that there have been periods of wet and windy weather which would make you think that there is no chance of colder weather and yet February 2nd and February 3rd snowfall.  It was only forecasted three days before the event. It is also very difficult to forecast snow and if does fall where it will fall and how much, because of the uncertainty it means that local authorities are criticised for not responding quickly enough by putting gritters out before the snow.  They did but due to traffic accidents which blocked roads were not able to grit or there was no certainty that there area would be getting snow and could have been a failed event or that the amount of snow that fell was not enough to merit to grit roads.

Edited January 10, 2019 by Katrine Basso
Add missing information

[Katrine Basso]

I thought that the Polar Vortex winds had split.

[Matty88]

27 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

I thought that the Polar Vortex winds had split.

Yes they have (I think?) - and every man and his dog practically jumped on the 'severe 1974 cold spell on its way' band wagon, only for them to be scratching their heads at the moment as nothing seems to be coming off! A combination of cold sliding into Eastern/Southern Europe causing a southerly flow up to the UK and then Canada/North America due to get a severe cold lobe in the coming weeks (which in turn fires up the jet) is working against us, certainly in the short term (but maybe also in the long term) 

[Froze were the Days]

15 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Yes they have (I think?) - and every man and his dog practically jumped on the 'severe 1974 cold spell on its way' band wagon, only for them to be scratching their heads at the moment as nothing seems to be coming off! A combination of cold sliding into Eastern/Southern Europe causing a southerly flow up to the UK and then Canada/North America due to get a severe cold lobe in the coming weeks (which in turn fires up the jet) is working against us, certainly in the short term (but maybe also in the long term) 

1947 - you got the digits around the wrong way  ...sadly I'm not seeing too much that wets the appetite in the foreseeable, still to a degree there's mobility and that area of high pressure to our west south west which looks like hanging around for a week or so and some Pm air masses at times but not sure that's of much in our neck of the woods. Hoping we do get a slither of heights between the lows and get some sort of a slider which disrupts the jet but with my untrained eyes I'm still seeing too much energy around the south of Greenland vicinity and a slight trend away from blocking to the north (certainly on the gfs)...interesting model watching coming up. 

[Matty88]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

1947 - you got the digits around the wrong way  ...sadly I'm not seeing too much that wets the appetite in the foreseeable, still to a degree there's mobility and that area of high pressure to our west south west which looks like hanging around for a week or so and some Pm air masses at times but not sure that's of much in our neck of the woods. Hoping we do get a slither of heights between the lows and get some sort of a slider which disrupts the jet but with my untrained eyes I'm still seeing too much energy around the south of Greenland vicinity and a slight trend away from blocking to the north (certainly on the gfs)...interesting model watching coming up. 

Nicely put - yes the set up going forward for the next few weeks will leave us snow free I'd imagine. 

I'd be interested to know North American/Canadian conditions during existing severe Cold Spells - especially if they simultaneously experienced cold frigid conditions as is expected in the coming weeks? It remains to be seen just how much this could effect our chances 

[Flaked Queen]

I can feel it coming !! The bitter winds and the smell says it all

[fluid dynamic]

Over in the model 'discussion' thread the rollercoaster has begun again, up down, round and round, getting chilly, oh no its not, oh yes it is.... . Quite funny for the first 10 minutes of reading, then just blimmin dumbassed bickering.

Chilly outside, no snow

 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

Over in the model 'discussion' thread the rollercoaster has begun again, up down, round and round, getting chilly, oh no its not, oh yes it is.... . Quite funny for the first 10 minutes of reading, then just blimmin dumbassed bickering.

Chilly outside, no snow

 

Too much impatience over there .... don’t think many have noticed that the month thus far is chilly (days moreso than nights )

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Reefseeker said:

I wonder if it is OK to ask here, what is a small wedge of heights? I have seen a fair few mentions of 'wedge of heights' in the model thread of late, but don't know what this means. I had a look at the example you have given, but sad to say I don't know which bit is the small wedge and how this translated into a Thames Streamer? Any guidance would be appreciated:)

Hi, I am certainly no expert but I will do my best to try and help you understand  

   this chart from the 06z GEFS shows a wedge of above average heights which I have highlighted in this pic   sometimes a better way of viewing above and below average heights are the pressure anomaly charts again same period but the height anomalies  again I have highlighted but it is much clearer on these types of charts (blue = below average heights and red = above average heights). Wedges or areas of above average heights can be important especially during winter and where they set up can help dictate what kind of weather we are likely to see, using the charts I have already posted that run shows the above average heights / wedge between Iceland and Greenland and an area of low pressure underneath / to the south bringing in easterly winds across the UK and likely wintry conditions sleet and snow showers dependent on other factors such as 850 hPa temperatures, dew points etc. 

I will let @TomSE12 explain the Thames streamer in better detail but up here in Kirkcaldy we have a similar streamer (forth streamer or forth / clyde streamer) the 2 best I have experienced in my lifetime (I am 22) were November 2010 and February 2018

November 2010 

  note the easterly flow for my area, the perfect forth streamer is a straight easterly flow and those low 850 hPa temperatures, bbc weather forecasts for this event 

some videos from my area after the event (not my videos) 

 

 

I was living in the highest part of Kirkcaldy at the time and we had over a foot by the time that streamer was finished.

February 2018 (beast from the east)

  arguably an even better forth streamer this time as the winds were a straight easterly and the 850 hPa temps were lower than the 2010 event so a perfect recipe for the north sea snow machine to fire up and dump copious amounts of snow here 

I was in the middle of a red snow warning 

some of my pics of the event, even at my altitude 20m ASL I managed a foot of snow although it was hard to measure due to the gale force easterly winds causing snow drifts, also pretty constant thundersnow as the bands of snow moved in. 

 

Hopefully I have helped a little  

[Laurence Hill]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Too much impatience over there .... don’t think many have noticed that the month thus far is chilly (days moreso than nights )

Yeah, getting difficult to decide who knows what they’re talking about.  Need quite a few cans of “bullsh*t” repellant.  It’s a pity really, as someone who hasn’t a clue how the models work but is keen on snow, it would be nice to read genuine comments.  If I was to put all the dodgy ones on my ignore list there would be hardly anything to read.

[Guest]

I am due to visit a friend in Suffolk at the beginning of Feb. Last year I drove there and when I left London there was no snow. By the time I reached Beccles I was skidding all over the place. Scary but fun! He has a fab cottage in the countryside and sitting there in the snow with a fire lit is wonderful. He introduced me to Netweather nearly 9 years ago, and it was great to find out I wasn't the only snow obsessed person out there!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

15 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Yeah, getting difficult to decide who knows what they’re talking about.  Need quite a few cans of “bullsh*t” repellant.  It’s a pity really, as someone who hasn’t a clue how the models work but is keen on snow, it would be nice to read genuine comments.  If I was to put all the dodgy ones on my ignore list there would be hardly anything to read.

Agree just read a few posts in the model thread that are totally un true but what do you say.. 

The issue is there are a few milder rampers who hate cold and snow, they are easy to spot.. 

Stick to the guys who know what they are talking about and understand how the mechanics behind our weather work. 

 

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, madmunch said:

I am due to visit a friend in Suffolk at the beginning of Feb. Last year I drove there and when I left London there was no snow. By the time I reached Beccles I was skidding all over the place. Scary but fun! He has a fab cottage in the countryside and sitting there in the snow with a fire lit is wonderful. He introduced me to Netweather nearly 9 years ago, and it was great to find out I wasn't the only snow obsessed person out there!

Aye, we did get quite a dumping here..March 1st was wonderful.

[bluearmy]

25 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Yeah, getting difficult to decide who knows what they’re talking about.  Need quite a few cans of “bullsh*t” repellant.  

Doesn’t leave many options !

its going to get much colder post 20th

snow? Frost? No one knows 

but for the first time this winter we actually have a raffle ticket and it’s a proper prize - the two week holiday in the Caribbean rather than the spa day

[Reefseeker]

Thank you @Kirkcaldy Weather  for that very helpful reply about heights, that will certainly help with my understanding of the charts So, on Tom's chart, the wedge around the Iceland area helped to put a squeeze on winds from the east as they came between that wedge and the systems around the Mediterranean - or have I got that completely wrong? Or did the winds come around that wedge clockwise to become easterly winds, if that makes sense? I think I get, more or less, the operation of a Thames Streamer once the winds hit the right vector, which I believe is E/ENE depending on your location, and they have certainly produced the best snow events in my area in SW London, although I'm pretty sure one of the late 70s or early 80s severe snow events in the west country where I grew up also arose from the long fetch of a Thames Streamer, but again, I could have that wrong! Thank you again, and what lovely pics, now if only..... EDIT: BTW, you are one of the ever-diminishing list of posters I do take more seriously on the MDT. As others have mentioned today, sorting between the more questionable contributions becomes very challenging at this time of year. I wish we could have a 'follow' system, where we could follow the good-uns on the model thread, a bit like on Twitter if Twitter were a weather forum.

Edited January 10, 2019 by Reefseeker

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Thank you @Kirkcaldy Weather  for that very helpful reply about heights, that will certainly help with my understanding of the charts So, on Tom's chart, the wedge around the Iceland area helped to put a squeeze on winds from the east as they came between that wedge and the systems around the Mediterranean - or have I got that completely wrong? Or did the winds come around that wedge clockwise to become easterly winds, if that makes sense? I think I get, more or less, the operation of a Thames Streamer once the winds hit the right vector, which I believe is E/ENE depending on your location, and they have certainly produced the best snow events in my area in SW London, although I'm pretty sure one of the late 70s or early 80s severe snow events in the west country where I grew up also arose from the long fetch of a Thames Streamer, but again, I could have that wrong! Thank you again, and what lovely pics, now if only.....

found a bbc forecast from the chart that @TomSE12 posted 

looking through the archive charts it looks like it was a sliding low which you may hear more of in the coming weeks in the model thread as this looks like 1 of many possibilities as we head deeper into January

6th Jan 2003    7th Jan 2003  8th Jan 2003 (the chart that Tom posted)  note the movement of the low pressure just to the west of the UK, instead of the default west > east movement through the UK it began moving NW > SE (which is the first thing I am looking for in the next few weeks of January) due to that wedge / area of above average heights bringing in that easterly flow especially for the S / SE parts of the UK (up here it looks like the higher heights were stronger and therefore less of the easterly flow took hold but under light winds it probably would have been very frosty / icy (I cant remember that spell as I would have been 6 years old hence me trying to analyze the charts ) 

Thanks for the kind words about the snow pics, yes that is the holy grail for snow in my area and  something similar can develop for all of the UK to enjoy some snow fun as we head into the latter stages of January and beyond. 

Hopefully I have explained that as clearly as possible.

This brought my first covering of snow last winter on the 19th January (for Kirkcaldy to benefit from anything coming from the west the best flow is a straight westerly similar to what the chart below shows,with 2nd best being a North westerly, northerlies tend not to reach here as the mountains hog all the snow and during the summer  there have been countless times where south westerlies have pushed the summer thunderstorms into areas further west and Kirkcaldy misses out) it could be similar timing this winter for me / the UK to see our first snowfall.