SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Methuselah]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Daily express hasn't come out with a snow headline which means you will probably see snow here before march

It's gonna be a looonnnggg cooollld snowy olddd Smarch!

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

It's gonna be a looonnnggg cooollld snowy olddd Smarch!

more chance of smarch snow in smarch than smarch snow in February......FACT as Benitez would say.

[shotski]

What’s Iapennel bloke saying ??

[lassie23]

26 minutes ago, shotski said:

What’s Iapennel bloke saying ??

we need to fire nuclear weapons into the moon i think 

Edited January 5, 2019 by lassie23

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

we need to fire nuclear weapons into the moon i think 

We can't do that - it'll leave a crater!

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

We can't do that - it'll leave a crater!

lol not to mention all the filaments ruining Corbyn's weather forecasts 

[lassie23]

looks like smarch is nailed on for cold lol

[Laurence Hill]

Bit of a spat going on in the hunt for cold thread as to whether the GFS is any good.

Must admit I really admire Steve’s posts, my favourite and always look forward to his analysis.

The below quote also shows his great sense of humour, love the line about “look at it , have a laugh and then return to more important things”

Quote

So basically in a round about way Ian has said exactly the same thing-

They look at it, have a laugh & return to more important things.

It has bias frailties - ( what ive been highlighting ) 

The UKMO GM/ ECM are used for the main forecast ( what I said they use )

In a nutshell -The GFS is pidgeon holed with the other ' average ' performers- ICON / JMA etc - The midpack runners - The force Indias, The Tim Henmans, The Jimmy Whites...l

 Have a good night all.

unquote

[Dami]

yeah and a lot of troll in there i'm sorry to say. yes they may have more knowledge than me, but c'mon.

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, shotski said:

What’s Iapennel bloke saying ??

SSW to deliver little with a coldish snap/spell towards end of month but CET still above normal.

[shotski]

24 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

SSW to deliver little with a coldish snap/spell towards end of month but CET still above normal.

Anomaly charts are looking tasty at the moment, I wish people would pay more attention to them than the ops. 

[lassie23]

I get that thread mixed up with the banter thread as I can't take any posts in either thread seriously. The cold keeps getting pushed back, the best model is the one showing snow until it ditches it and so then becomes the worst model. Self-appointed experts leading fellow members astray despite their predictions always being wrong. All it is is a thread to collect likes and massage egos, cherry pick a cold run, tell everyone it will happen, sit back and watch the likes flood in.....yawn.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I thought the ECM 12z was pretty decent 

Edited January 5, 2019 by Surrey

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just had a long chat with local Weatherman, Ian Currie. Ian is fully expecting a cold second half of Winter. Like some of the Forecast Models seem to be suggesting, the wintry weather will be coming from the North. He did state that it will probably take a few bites of the cherry, for this to happen. He suggests around the 20th/21st Jan. will be the timescale, to look out for. He expects a S.E. diving low, to be the catalyst for opening the floodgates to the North and expects the flow to eventually turn to the N.E.

Regards,

Tom. 

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Just had a long chat with local Weatherman, Ian Currie. Ian is fully expecting a cold second half of Winter. Like some of the Forecast Models seem to be suggesting, the wintry weather will be coming from the North. He did state that it will probably take a few bites of the cherry, for this to happen. He suggests around the 20th/21st Jan. will be the timescale, to look out for. He expects a S.E. diving low, to be the catalyst for opening the floodgates to the North and expects the flow to eventually turn to the N.E.

Regards,

Tom. 

That sounds about right to me, we will have to wait for the Northeasterly as a northerly isn't really great for London shower wise

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi Lassie,

Yes the infamous, "Wishbone" effect!! Ian did sound pretty confident of his thoughts and in no way is Mr.Currie, a cold "ramper"!!

Regards,

Tom. 

[shotski]

12 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Just had a long chat with local Weatherman, Ian Currie. Ian is fully expecting a cold second half of Winter. Like some of the Forecast Models seem to be suggesting, the wintry weather will be coming from the North. He did state that it will probably take a few bites of the cherry, for this to happen. He suggests around the 20th/21st Jan. will be the timescale, to look out for. He expects a S.E. diving low, to be the catalyst for opening the floodgates to the North and expects the flow to eventually turn to the N.E.

Regards,

Tom. 

I’m not sure I can tikka this seriously ! 

[Froze were the Days]

14 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Just had a long chat with local Weatherman, Ian Currie. Ian is fully expecting a cold second half of Winter. Like some of the Forecast Models seem to be suggesting, the wintry weather will be coming from the North. He did state that it will probably take a few bites of the cherry, for this to happen. He suggests around the 20th/21st Jan. will be the timescale, to look out for. He expects a S.E. diving low, to be the catalyst for opening the floodgates to the North and expects the flow to eventually turn to the N.E.

Regards,

Tom. 

Hope the 20th/21st isn't around the time we experience some 'real' cold as my dad's funeral is on the 21st!...be just my luck, wait all winter for the white stuff.

[Methuselah]

That'll mean I can build a snowman. A really big snowman. A bootiful snowman. An awesome snowman...?

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hope you can make out the picture below. It shows Ian Currie standing next to a snowdrift outside the school in Caterham in Surrey, he taught at. This was taken during the very wintry spell, in January 1987. 

This photo appears in his Surrey County Weather Book:

Ian has given his very kind permission, for me  to reproduce some photos from his Surrey and Kent County Weather Books, on this thread and on a thread I started on the "onset of the severe, wintry spell in January 1987", in the Historic Weather thread.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

This photo, again taken during the severe, wintry spell of Jan,1987, shows commuters disembarking a train at Gillingham Station.

.

This photo is taken from Ian Currie's, Kent County Weather book:

 

 

The above photo was taken outside Mr.Currie's former property in Rickman Hill in Coulsdon, just south of Croydon Surrey. Again in January 1987. The photo appears in his Surrey County Weather book.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Edited January 5, 2019 by TomSE12

[shotski]

34 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

This photo, again taken during the severe, wintry spell of Jan,1987, shows commuters disembarking a train at Gillingham Station.

.

This photo is taken from Ian Currie's, Kent County Weather book:

 

 

The above photo was taken outside Mr.Currie's former property in Rickman Hill in Coulsdon, just south of Croydon Surrey. Again in January 1987. The photo appears in his Surrey County Weather book.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Great photos

looks like Naania 

[Matty88]

Cold med/Turkey always signals mild for us, last year Turkey and med region had a very mild and relatively less snowy winter - likewise the Caucus Mountains in south Russia - last year had a terrible ski season but this year it’s been fantastic. All signals point towards dull, mild and frankly disappointing winter for us. I suspect we’ll see a snow event or two (brief 2-3 day events) but I have low hopes for any beast from the east style event this year, there’s nothing to support the sustained deep cold easterly intrusion at the moment 

Hope I can eat my words later though! got everything crossed! 

 

[Paul Sherman]

1987 was a truly memorable winter but for longevity wasnt noted as it was all over by the 18th and only 1 week long, my school did close for 2 weeks though due to failed heating in the 2nd week due to bursting pipes and snowdrifts 15ft high in the first week, later that year another 2 week closure caused by the 1987 October storm where we had 3 weeks off with the timing of half term that year. I blame those weeks on me screwing up my GCSE's 

Hoping the 2nd half of January and February can crack my Top 3 in my lifetime winter spells, here's hoping

1. 1987

2. 1991

3. 2010

C'Mon 2019 you can do it!!

Great Pictures Tom and say thanks to Ian for allowing those on here, wish I could find the one with people skiing down the A127 but have not seen it online for  a few years

[shotski]

11 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Cold med/Turkey always signals mild for us, last year Turkey and med region had a very mild and relatively less snowy winter - likewise the Caucus Mountains in south Russia - last year had a terrible ski season but this year it’s been fantastic. All signals point towards dull, mild and frankly disappointing winter for us. I suspect we’ll see a snow event or two (brief 2-3 day events) but I have low hopes for any beast from the east style event this year, there’s nothing to support the sustained deep cold easterly intrusion at the moment 

Hope I can eat my words later though! got everything crossed! 

 

We always seem to get cold Turkey this time of year, seems to be a pattern