SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Tom Quintavalle]

14 hours ago, lassie23 said:

lol that thread is ridiculous, should be put in the lounge

Hi Lassie,

Yes, I'd like to use stronger words than "ridiculous" but obviously can't. I know I keep "banging the drum" about this but it is worth stressing!! I'm 63 years of age and in that time, I've not seen much pre-Christmas snow at all!! And as per usual, was totally misquoted when mentioning the 1962/63 Winter. As we all know the snow started on Boxing Day but in no way was I implying that we are in for a repeat performance, this Winter. Just another example of snowfall, coming post-Christmas. It really is pointless posting on that thread, sometimes.

I've only experienced a couple of White Christmases, probably 1970 the best:

I was 15  and although I didn't realise it, at the time, was witnessing a "Thames Streamer". About 3 to 4 inches of snow, where I lived in Bromley, N.W.Kent/S.E.London., including huge crash of thunder in the early hours of Christmas morning. Even 1981 wasn't technically a White Christmas, as no snow fell on the day, but we had around 3 to 4 inches on the ground, from pre-Christmas snowfalls. 

The Model thread really is a strange place, a lot of very depressing, "half-empty" type posts!! Regardless of the Stroke I suffered 3 years ago, by the time I've finished reading the early morning posts commenting on the overnight runs, I feel drained!!

Had an interesting exchange of posts with Kirkcaldy Weather (Callum), from the Scottish thread. 

 

Quote: (From Stuart Rampling (Glacier Point), on the Stratosphere thread.

"We are currently at the end of downwelling signal for the autumn in the troposphere,AO set to bounce around as per late November to mid December 1984".

I was living in Lincolnshire at the time with my first wife Jackie and our two children, Antony was 3 and Hayley was a year old. We moved to Lincolnshire after my Mother-In Law committed suicide in April 1983. Jackie was pregnant with Hayley at the time and it destroyed her, poor thing!! We lived around the corner from my Mother-In-Law and Jackie couldn't face walking past her front door, every day. So we decided to move to where her Aunt/Uncle lived, just north of Lincoln but I couldn't find any work there. So we decided to move back to S.E.London and I found a job eventually with the C.W.S, in their accounts dept. I mention this because on the day we moved back south was 27th DEC.1984. We'd been under High Pressure, just after Xmas and that day was very cold with fog and frost lasting all day, in Lincoln. It was very foggy when we got back to S.E.London, on that Tuesday night. We unloaded the removal van in the dark and "shoved" all the furniture in our recently acquired Maisonette. I locked up and went over to my Parents in nearby Bromley, where my wife, Antony and Hayley were staying. We returned to Anerley, S.E.London, a few days later,  to move in and organise all the furniture. 

             XMAS DAY.1984

Not a very inspiring chart, I think you'll agree. Plenty of "purples" to our N.W., with a pretty active Atlantic!! Just a glimmer of hope, from that mid-Atlantic ridge. Then by the day of the move, 27th, the Atlantic hit a brick wall!!

                  27th DEC.1984.

About a week later it was snowing, with 2 to 3 inches on the ground, from an Easterly.!! A great welcome back to S.E.London.

These quotes taken from Trevor Harley's excellent, Dundee Weather Website. 

"January - 1985 Very cold (0.8C CET) with frequent snow in the first three weeks. There was heavy snowfall in Kent on the 5th (25 cm of snow around Ramsgate and Margate), with maxima of -4C. The 7th was a cold day, with temperatures beneath freezing over much of the country; -16 at Jubilee Corner (Kent) on the morning of the 8th. As the cold air retreated temporarily to the continent, temperatures rose for a while, but the cold soon returned with a vengeance around the 13th. Some very low maxima on the 16th, which was one of the coldest days of the century in parts of southern Britain: -6C at Brighton and in Kent on the 16th and Shrewsbury and Wittering on the 17th. 20cms of snow over much of the south. Thaw from the 19th, preceded by a blizzard over the Highlands. There was a minimum of -19C on the 25th, rising to only -9, and a minimum of -22.4 at Aviemore on the 27th, and -23C at Braemar.

Then we had some decent snowfall in February, as well: 

February - 1985 Overall, anticyclonic, dry, and cool (2.1C CET). The first week was mild. There was a very cold spell starting on the 7th, with heavy snow in the south on the 8th and 9th. Then strong easterly winds brought beneath-freezing temperatures. In some parts of the south from the 9-13th the highest temperature was -4C. In some parts of the country the temperature only climbed above freezing on the 19th. It was sunny at the end of the month."

Not saying that this Winter will turn out like this but when Glacier Point mentioned 1984/85, it struck a chord with me!!

Sorry, it's a bit "War and Peace" but just wanted to share that with you.

Regards,

Tom. 

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Lassie,

Yes, I'd like to use stronger words than "ridiculous" but obviously can't. I know I keep "banging the drum" about this but it is worth stressing!! I'm 63 years of age and in that time, I've not seen much pre-Christmas snow at all!! And as per usual, was totally misquoted when mentioning the 1962/63 Winter. As we all know the snow started on Boxing Day but in no way was I implying that we are in for a repeat performance, this Winter. Just another example of snowfall, coming post-Christmas. It really is pointless posting on that thread, sometimes.

I've only experienced a couple of White Christmases, probably 1970 the best:

I was 15  and although I didn't realise it, at the time, was witnessing a "Thames Streamer". About 3 to 4 inches of snow, where I lived in Bromley, N.W.Kent/S.E.London., including huge crash of thunder in the early hours of Christmas morning. Even 1981 wasn't technically a White Christmas, as no snow fell on the day, but we had around 3 to 4 inches on the ground, from pre-Christmas snowfalls. 

The Model thread really is a strange place, a lot of very depressing, "half-empty" type posts!! Regardless of the Stroke I suffered 3 years ago, by the time I've finished reading the early morning posts commenting on the overnight runs, I feel drained!!

Had an interesting exchange of posts with Kirkcaldy Weather (Callum), from the Scottish thread. 

 

Quote: (From Stuart Rampling (Glacier Point), on the Stratosphere thread.

"We are currently at the end of downwelling signal for the autumn in the troposphere,AO set to bounce around as per late November to mid December 1984".

I was living in Lincolnshire at the time with my first wife Jackie and our two children, Antony was 3 and Hayley was a year old. We moved to Lincolnshire after my Mother-In Law committed suicide in April 1983. Jackie was pregnant with Hayley at the time and it destroyed her, poor thing!! We lived around the corner from my Mother-In-Law and Jackie couldn't face walking past her front door, every day. So we decided to move to where her Aunt/Uncle lived, just north of Lincoln but I couldn't find any work there. So we decided to move back to S.E.London and I found a job eventually with the C.W.S, in their accounts dept. I mention this because on the day we moved back south was 27th DEC.1984. We'd been under High Pressure, just after Xmas and that day was very cold with fog and frost lasting all day, in Lincoln. It was very foggy when we got back to S.E.London, on that Tuesday night. We unloaded the removal van in the dark and "shoved" all the furniture in our recently acquired Maisonette. I locked up and went over to my Parents in nearby Bromley, where my wife, Antony and Hayley were staying. We returned to Anerley, S.E.London, a few days later,  to move in and organise all the furniture. 

             XMAS DAY.1984

Not a very inspiring chart, I think you'll agree. Plenty of "purples" to our N.W., with a pretty active Atlantic!! Just a glimmer of hope, from that mid-Atlantic ridge. Then by the day of the move, 27th, the Atlantic hit a brick wall!!

                  27th DEC.1984.

About a week later it was snowing, with 2 to 3 inches on the ground, from an Easterly.!! A great welcome back to S.E.London.

These quotes taken from Trevor Harley's excellent, Dundee Weather Website. 

"January - 1985 Very cold (0.8C CET) with frequent snow in the first three weeks. There was heavy snowfall in Kent on the 5th (25 cm of snow around Ramsgate and Margate), with maxima of -4C. The 7th was a cold day, with temperatures beneath freezing over much of the country; -16 at Jubilee Corner (Kent) on the morning of the 8th. As the cold air retreated temporarily to the continent, temperatures rose for a while, but the cold soon returned with a vengeance around the 13th. Some very low maxima on the 16th, which was one of the coldest days of the century in parts of southern Britain: -6C at Brighton and in Kent on the 16th and Shrewsbury and Wittering on the 17th. 20cms of snow over much of the south. Thaw from the 19th, preceded by a blizzard over the Highlands. There was a minimum of -19C on the 25th, rising to only -9, and a minimum of -22.4 at Aviemore on the 27th, and -23C at Braemar.

Then we had some decent snowfall in February, as well: 

February - 1985 Overall, anticyclonic, dry, and cool (2.1C CET). The first week was mild. There was a very cold spell starting on the 7th, with heavy snow in the south on the 8th and 9th. Then strong easterly winds brought beneath-freezing temperatures. In some parts of the south from the 9-13th the highest temperature was -4C. In some parts of the country the temperature only climbed above freezing on the 19th. It was sunny at the end of the month."

Not saying that this Winter will turn out like this but when Glacier Point mentioned 1984/85, it struck a chord with me!!

Sorry, it's a bit "War and Peace" but just wanted to share that with you.

Regards,

Tom. 

Plus there is an SSW which always confuses the weather models.

[stainesbloke]

Unpleasant day here with plenty of cloud and a nasty howling wind. Nice charts next week, if it was summer. Unfortunately, it ain’t summer but it might be dry for a while, at least. Still think it’ll get much colder in a few weeks. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Here is the sixth report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t96), seen through the eyes of the GFS 12z run.See z500 chart below:

       GFS (t96), CHRISTMAS DAY

The ECMWF, also at (t96) on Christmas Day

Have also included the UKMO (t96) on Christmas Day

As we can see, all the "big" three are singing from the same hymn sheet, now. High Pressure centred close to the south of the U.K.. Christmas Day then, looks to be dry with sunny spells, perhaps feeling quite chilly after an overnight frost but with light winds. Should be very pleasant for a post Christmas dinner walk. But if you're dreaming of a White Christmas, you may have to make do with a touch of "faux cold". Any initial "whiteness", due to any overnight frost. Barring the all "mother" of backtracks from the Forecast Models, IMO inversion cold is the best we can hope for!!

 

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.( Although, looking at the expected Synoptic set-up, I don't think I'd be tempted by 33/1.)

Have still given SAMMY the ambivalent expression, as with some inversion cold present he shouldn't suffer from any melting.

I see Bookmaker's have lengthened the Odds for London (Heathrow) out to 10/1, still way short of being tempting!! Bookmaker's will tell you, as they've already taken plenty of money on a London White Christmas, they can't offer bigger than 10/1. They also know, that average "Joe Public" will be only too happy to take 10/1. My advice, keep your hard earned "dosh", in your pocket.

NEXT UPDATE: GFS, ECMWF and UKMO: SUN.23rd DEC.12z (t48).

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited December 21, 2018 by TomSE12

[Wimbledon88]

58 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Here is the sixth report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t96), seen through the eyes of the GFS 12z run.See z500 chart below:

       GFS (t96), CHRISTMAS DAY

The ECMWF, also at (t96) on Christmas Day

Have also included the UKMO (t96) on Christmas Day

As we can see, all the "big" three are singing from the same hymn sheet, now. High Pressure centred close to the south of the U.K.. Christmas Day then, looks to be dry with sunny spells, perhaps feeling quite chilly after an overnight frost but with light winds. Should be very pleasant for a post Christmas dinner walk. But if you're dreaming of a White Christmas, you may have to make do with a touch of "faux cold". Any initial "whiteness", due to any overnight frost. Barring the all "mother" of backtracks from the Forecast Models, IMO inversion cold is the best we can hope for!!

 

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.( Although, looking at the expected Synoptic set-up, I don't think I'd be tempted by 33/1.)

Have still given SAMMY the ambivalent expression, as with some inversion cold present he shouldn't suffer from any melting.

I see Bookmaker's have lengthened the Odds for London (Heathrow) out to 10/1, still way short of being tempting!! Bookmaker's will tell you, as they've already taken plenty of money on a London White Christmas, they can't offer bigger than 10/1. They also know, that average "Joe Public" will be only too happy to take 10/1. My advice, keep your hard earned "dosh", in your pocket.

NEXT UPDATE: GFS, ECMWF and UKMO: SUN.23rd DEC.12z (t48).

Regards,

Tom. 

Interesting piece again Tom. Cheers. 

I wonder how many folk even at this late stage would bet on a white Christmas in London? 

Surely people are not that stupid?!! Then again..... /:

 

 

[Zak M]

4 Lightning strikes reported 40 miles North West with heavy precipitation. Currently got my DSLR out the window to see if I can catch anything.

[Katrine Basso]

It's a lovely sunny morning with 11^°C but feels more like 8^°C.

[lassie23]

has game of drones finished at gatwick

[Scandinavian High.]

I would love see something like this in January again..

 

[lassie23]

10 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I would love see something like this in January again..

 

agreed they should definitely bring back Ian

[Wimbledon88]

45 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

agreed they should definitely bring back Ian

That might be a bit tricky mate.  

Though I dare say the divine beings on the MAD thread could have a go. 

[lassie23]

Just now, Wimbledon88 said:

That might be a bit tricky mate.  

Though I dare say the divine beings on the MAD thread could have a go. 

I thought he was still with us

[Wimbledon88]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

I thought he was still with us

No, he moved on sadly about 2 years ago.

 

[Badgers01]

3 hours ago, abbie123 said:

I would love see something like this in January again..

 

the best single spell of wintry weather perhaps of the 20th century for low land southern England - and no SSW was required ..!!?

[Badgers01]

5 hours ago, abbie123 said:

I would love see something like this in January again..

 

also I can still remember watching the farming forecast by John kettley on the previous Sunday I would love to see that again it was the most exciting forecast ever !!

[Snipper]

I am wondering if therapy is needed in the mad thread. Here as well?

Too be honest not a bad day here. Might be a bit chillier next week but not bad enough to have central heating on though. 

[abruzzi spur]

1 hour ago, Snipper said:

I am wondering if therapy is needed in the mad thread. Here as well?

Too be honest not a bad day here. Might be a bit chillier next week but not bad enough to have central heating on though. 

I'd like to hope that even in this weird world we're all still ok to make our own decisions about when to put on the heating 

Very mild today here in the Surrey Hills, been out and about including a visit to Denbies vineyard and the farm shop.  Great place for some last minute top up presents including local cheeses and really fab English sparkling wine.

The MAD thread is a bizarre place for sure, like much of social/soshallow media, I would much rather go out in all and any weathers than sit around looking at charts.  Can you imagine:  'what did you do in January 1987 Dad?   Well, son/daughter, I sat in my bedroom and looked at the internet.  But, Dad, did you go out and enjoy it?  No, far too cold, I just speculated miserably about the possible breakdown so I could moan about it'.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2018 by abruzzi spur
thai po

[Snipper]

11 hours ago, abruzzi spur said:

I'd like to hope that even in this weird world we're all still ok to make our own decisions about when to put on the heating 

Very mild today here in the Surrey Hills, been out and about including a visit to Denbies vineyard and the farm shop.  Great place for some last minute top up presents including local cheeses and really fab English sparkling wine.

The MAD thread is a bizarre place for sure, like much of social/soshallow media, I would much rather go out in all and any weathers than sit around looking at charts.  Can you imagine:  'what did you do in January 1987 Dad?   Well, son/daughter, I sat in my bedroom and looked at the internet.  But, Dad, did you go out and enjoy it?  No, far too cold, I just speculated miserably about the possible breakdown so I could moan about it'.

 

 

Ho Ho!  Very good. 

[lassie23]

Everything seems to be out in F1 too, getting pushed further and further back, November and December are already in the can. Makes me laugh when the models spew out mild charts and people think it's a step in the right direction for cold and are optimistic because one rogue run shows cold.

[stainesbloke]

Another gorgeous winter morning here

[lassie23]

Christmas shopping is done and half of it is arriving in January, what will come first, snow or my presents.

[Froze were the Days]

Utterly miserable weather! compounded by losing my father yesterday in the early hours...

[EWS]

16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Utterly miserable weather! compounded by losing my father yesterday in the early hours...

I'm so sorry for your loss 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Utterly miserable weather! compounded by losing my father yesterday in the early hours...

Very sorry to hear this, sending a big hug

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Christmas shopping is done and half of it is arriving in January, what will come first, snow or my presents.

http://newsthump.com/2018/12/21/christmas-ruined-as-chris-reas-car-fails-mot/