SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[lawrenk]

3 minutes ago, Dami said:

saying we might have cold spells in january surely is akin to saying you might get heat in July?

Maybe but, knowing how hysterical the media are these days, the MO don’t start suggesting snow that far out unless confidence is fairly high. The dreaded “Wintery Showers” is usually the best we get!

[Dami]

Their forecast saying it could be mild it could be cold, they might as well say it might be dry it might be wet.  

100 days of snow walls ahead.

[lassie23]

A lot of cliched claptrap being posted in the MOD thread. Anyone would think a cold spell is 100 percent certain to happen in January.

Edited December 18, 2018 by lassie23

[Tom Quintavalle]

CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Here is the fifth report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t168), seen through the eyes of the GFS 12z run.See z500 chart below:

This run sees High Pressure building N.W./S.E, across the North of the U.K. A light Easterly drift across the south of the U.K. but it should be dry with sunny spells, perhaps feeling on the chilly side but not unduly cold. Temps. probably around average.

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

A rather ambivalent SAMMY, yet again.  Consigned to a "whatever will be, will be", expression on his face!! Having looked at the equivalent ECM run, which seemed pretty similar synoptically, perhaps a little milder with more of a southerly component to the flow, there seems to be a growing consensus amongst the Models of High Pressure building in, close to the U.K.

Should this be correct then Christmas Day is likely to be dry. Perhaps we are more likely to see some of these -

(as it's Christmas, in blankets of course) , than some of these -

But good luck if you can find a Bookmaker silly enough to lay you a price about a flying pig in blanket.

SAMMY is also quite content because he heard the rather bullish METO update for early January. Could the atmosphere be "prepping" itself for a wintry blast, as we enter the New Year. Now where are those Betting Odds for a White New Year?

NEXT UPDATE: GFS 12z, FRI. 21st DEC(t96). I will also comment on the ECM and UKMO, for the same timescale. Should there be any interesting developments in the next couple of days from the Forecast Models, I will comment on these too.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just a quick heads up to you "thunder freaks", who live close to our southern coastline. We are in a similar situation to where we were a few weeks ago. Very unstable air flowing over relatively high SST's, in the English Channel. Charts for tomorrow show showers running on to the Kent/Sussex coast, in an unstable S.W. flow. Those areas could see some heavy, squally and perhaps thundery showers, tomorrow. Charts show some CAPE, out in the Channel.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Zak M]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Just a quick heads up to you "thunder freaks", who live close to our southern coastline. We are in a similar situation to where we were a few weeks ago. Very unstable air flowing over relatively high SST's, in the English Channel. Charts for tomorrow show showers running on to the Kent/Sussex coast, in an unstable S.W. flow. Those areas could see some heavy, squally and perhaps thundery showers, tomorrow. Charts show some CAPE, out in the Channel.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why is it alwayyssss in the channel 

[Tom Quintavalle]

6 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Just a quick heads up to you "thunder freaks", who live close to our southern coastline. We are in a similar situation to where we were a few weeks ago. Very unstable air flowing over relatively high SST's, in the English Channel. Charts for tomorrow show showers running on to the Kent/Sussex coast, in an unstable S.W. flow. Those areas could see some heavy, squally and perhaps thundery showers, tomorrow. Charts show some CAPE, out in the Channel.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Woke up really early, to the sound of raindrops and a painful wisdom (what wisdom, you cry??) tooth, giving me "gip".

I see those heavy and squally showers (with some sferics popping off), are closing in on our region.

http://meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=lightning

Regards.

Tom. 

[Sparky68]

The January forecast is a blessing and nitemare for me at the same time. The commute is hell in the snow but , who doesnt love snow

[lassie23]

It has been raining off and on for hours now but the temperature hasn't dropped below 9c all night.

[Matty88]

3 hours ago, Sparky68 said:

The January forecast is a blessing and nitemare for me at the same time. The commute is hell in the snow but , who doesnt love snow

The forecasts look positive yes but approach with caution fella - no guarantee for significant snow for our region just yet, could even get through January without a snowflake - nobody knows. Likelihood is - its winter so its highly probable! But significant snow for our region? Less so. We'll only know a few days before it happens

Next 2 weeks = Average, no snow for us. Next 3-4 Weeks = 50/50 chance. All hopes seem to be on this SSW... I'll believe it when I see it

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, Sparky68 said:

The January forecast is a blessing and nitemare for me at the same time. The commute is hell in the snow but , who doesnt love snow

Same for me, working for an airline means any snow at Heathrow is an absolute nightmare (unless I’m on days off, in which case, bring it on!)...

[Froze were the Days]

MetO latest is a bit of a downgrade today (couldn't get any more bullish for cold in the New Year over the last couple of updates) and even so they haven't been that accurate over the last month and have had little confidence, so of course the odd poster in the MAD thread has almost had a breakdown!...:)

Edited December 19, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[lassie23]

16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

MetO latest is a bit of a downgrade today (couldn't get any more bullish for cold in the New Year over the last couple of updates) and even so they haven't been that accurate over the last month and have had little confidence, so of course the odd poster in the MAD thread has almost had a breakdown!...:)

Well their updates seem to always cover all basis, a mild, wet, windy, cold, dry, sunny, foggy month ahead lol

[yamkin]

 

 

[lassie23]

So by skimming through the MOD thread, this is how things stand at the moment, there was a downgrade and the downgrade got downgraded further, but this later got upgraded and yesterday the upgrade got upgraded only to be downgraded this morning. Only certainty out of all that is that it will not snow over Christmas.

[yamkin]

 

 

[LightningLover]

On-and-off heavy convective rain today, with some instances of overflowing/blocked drains around Hastings.

[yamkin]

#MetO have indicated a very high chance of #SSW & increased likelihood of #colder weather in #January

Edited December 19, 2018 by yamkin

[LightningLover]

Just went under a sudden line of squally showers in Hastings.

[Stroudley]

A total of 16.4mm of rain today - nearly all of it in the form of very heavy showers.

[Donna3397]

I’m so bored of rain and puddles and cold (not the fun cold) 

[bluebell]

Ho ho ho for a white Christmas, the nearest so far a few hail pellets have just buzzed through... more please but of the snow flake variety, come on weather you know you can do it... pretty please. Right begging over , bed time early start tomorrow to Hove for 0930hrs !

[Wimbledon88]

19 hours ago, lassie23 said:

So by skimming through the MOD thread, this is how things stand at the moment, there was a downgrade and the downgrade got downgraded further, but this later got upgraded and yesterday the upgrade got upgraded only to be downgraded this morning. Only certainty out of all that is that it will not snow over Christmas.

I haven't had a look in there in a while, been rather sozzled since late pm yesterday, Christmas works 'party'. Is there much coffee snow sniffing and block building? 

7c and sunny in Wimbledon right now. Its even difficult getting a frost this winter never mind snow!

[MAF]

Morning All. Seems like I am the only person in work today :o St James's is currently part cloudy and 7° C but not much breeze so feeling pleasant this morning.

[Froze were the Days]

Valium is needed in the MOD thread currently - some dire output particularly as we go towards the New Year (against all SSW beliefs)/