SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[lassie23]

Raining heavily here but much milder than yesterday.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Although I didn't want to do another ECM report until Tuesday, thought I'd post up their latest offering for Christmas Day. It also shows, a toppling ridge but there would be just enough time before it topples to give our region a chance of something wintry, falling out of the sky, on Christmas Day.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Paul1968]

Chucking it down at the moment and is sadly set to stay this way over the next week or so.If you are expecting a white x-mas then sorry it ain't happening,hopefully something more favourable as we move into the new year though 

 

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Paul1968 said:

Chucking it down at the moment and is sadly set to stay this way over the next week or so.If you are expecting a white x-mas then sorry it ain't happening,hopefully something more favourable as we move into the new year though 

 

2nd week of January maybe

[Ben Lewis]

Yet more Atlantic gunk falling outside. 

Rain, rain and more rain. 

@Wimbledon88 you must be in your element? 2 days minimum of dry weather and you are bored. 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

17 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

2nd week of January maybe

Yes Lassie,

We need Jerry Jet Stream to be sedated at the moment, he's way too hyper or perhaps, driven further south!! 

Regards,

Tom. 

[abruzzi spur]

Very mild now at 6.9c.  A mostly decent day but heavy rain arrived about 5:30 just after i got back from a competitive squash match vs my youngest son.  Nearly 16 and he's becoming annoyingly good.  History repeating itself, same thing happened with eldest who's now nearly 22 and started beating me around the same age.  Thankfully my daughter doesn't play otherwise she'd be the same.

Anyway, looks like a mild week ahead, some rain around.  Called in at Denbies to buy some wine around lunchtime and it was pretty soggy out in the Surrey Hills but I've seen it s lot worse.  On a domestic note hoping the roofers can finish on our house by Friday, at least we're now watertight again.

[essexweather]

8C at 3AM never good but still hopeful temperatures will trend down by Christmas. Really dislike mild Christmases

[snowfish1]

Usual crap Atlantic dross. Hate it. Americans annoy me they take all the snow and send low after low like a double insult to us poor sods 

[stainesbloke]

Very nice morning here, clear skies and 5C with light winds. Enjoy it while it lasts

[Wimbledon88]

14 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

Yet more Atlantic gunk falling outside. 

Rain, rain and more rain. 

@Wimbledon88 you must be in your element? 2 days minimum of dry weather and you are bored. 

 

Yes indeedy. 

Thoroughly enjoying this unsettled spell, rain one day, sunny the next, showery next etc etc. Fresh. 

One great thing about not minding wet windy changeable weather is that I'm rarely disappointed.  

 

 

[Kent Blizzard]

17 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

 

- SAMMY is reasonably content as there would be a chill in the air, after a pretty chilly night. He shouldn't suffer too much, from melting. But there would be little chance of anything white falling out of the sky. Knowing Bookmaker's and their reluctance to offer inflated Odds about Novelty wagers, I wouldn't expect Odds to be greater than those that I've quoted.

We really need the Jet Stream to quieten down, coming out of North America!!

Next updates: GFS - TUES 18th DEC. (t168). ECM - TUES 18th DEC. (t168)

Regards,

Tom.  

Then on Boxing Day  at the Pub and back to reality.....after an overnight melt due to milder air pushing in 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Kent Blizzard

[lassie23]

OFI is holding up well so far this winter.

[yamkin]

 

 

[yamkin]

Have you seen the MetO's latest update for January 

They have really beefed up their forecast with very cold conditions from the East with  in the equation.

Here's their update:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

Updated: 01:09 on Mon 17 Dec 2018 GMT

[Wimbledon88]

Yes, the MET are certainly going for it now.

They tracked last Feb/March cold spell from way way out(with a few blips on the way that had folk despairing) but we got there in the end. Looking good for end of the month onwards. 

[yamkin]

47 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Yes, the MET are certainly going for it now.

They tracked last Feb/March cold spell from way way out(with a few blips on the way that had folk despairing) but we got there in the end. Looking good for end of the month onwards. 

Last week, the MetO scientist Jeff mentioned about the SSW forming and said he believed this would take place by the end of Dec or 1st week of Jan

[lassie23]

do people really have to comment on every single run in the MOD thread

[Jimmyh]

3 hours ago, yamkin said:

Have you seen the MetO's latest update for January 

They have really beefed up their forecast with very cold conditions from the East with  in the equation.

Here's their update:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

Updated: 01:09 on Mon 17 Dec 2018 GMT

Yamkin i love your updates including this one. My concern is the point underlined. And until everything is on board i think ultra caution is needed

[Lauren]

34 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

do people really have to comment on every single run in the MOD thread

I don't know how people don't end up bursting a blood vessel to be honest.

[lassie23]

14 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I don't know how people don't end up bursting a blood vessel to be honest.

It's just plain boring now lol

[Ben Lewis]

This time next week we’ll all be tucking in to a few glasses of wine and gammon. Well I will anyway 

Flying out to Montreal Friday for Christmas and the new year for a couple of weeks to see the family 

Snow lying on the ground there with temps around -4c by day and -12c by night. 

Snow and cold fix guaranteed.

Hopefully return home to deep cold and easterly winds   

Snow when away is all good, but can’t beat it falling outside your own home. 

[yamkin]

 

 

[shotski]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

This time next week we’ll all be tucking in to a few glasses of wine and gammon. Well I will anyway 

Flying out to Montreal Friday for Christmas and the new year for a couple of weeks to see the family 

Snow lying on the ground there with temps around -4c by day and -12c by night. 

Snow and cold fix guaranteed.

Hopefully return home to deep cold and easterly winds   

Snow when away is all good, but can’t beat it falling outside your own home. 

Sounds great, very jealous. Enjoy ?

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

This time next week we’ll all be tucking in to a few glasses of wine and gammon. Well I will anyway 

Flying out to Montreal Friday for Christmas and the new year for a couple of weeks to see the family 

Snow lying on the ground there with temps around -4c by day and -12c by night. 

Snow and cold fix guaranteed.

Hopefully return home to deep cold and easterly winds   

Snow when away is all good, but can’t beat it falling outside your own home. 

at least in Canada, they don't need an SSW to fry the northern hemisphere just to get two days of sleet lol