SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[SMU]

ppn not far away

Temp rooted to -0.2c

[abruzzi spur]

Here in Reigate at 110m the temperature has recently started steadily rising, currently 1.2c.  Dewpoint also on the up albeit still below 0c. Nicely illustrated on this graph

Rain is pretty close now.

Edited December 15, 2018 by abruzzi spur
Wrong graph

[NO LONGER POSTING]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ppn not far away

Temp rooted to -0.2c

Temp here in North Surrey 0c and almost within touching distant of PPN will let you know how goes... Not expecting anything other than a few flakes mixed in

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Temp here in North Surrey 0c and almost within touching distant of PPN will let you know how goes... Not expecting anything other than a few flakes mixed in

Morning, I think you may get a dusting before it turns to rain/freezing rain. Probably flooding will be the concern here.

Edited December 15, 2018 by Jayfromcardiff

[SMU]

Looking at the uppers - the 1c line @850 comes through around 11am

The dewpoint 0c line comes through ~ 4pm , currently around -3.

850 thickness is 1290 till about 11 & the 0c WBPT line is around 100M all morning-

So snow me thinks for us - surface level maybe an hour, > 100M 2 hours

maybe a covering over >200M

Im at 150M so.......

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

41 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Morning, I think you may get a dusting before it turns to rain/freezing rain. Probably flooding will be the concern here.

Yes expect so... Flooding maybe 

[Blessed Weather]

There's two fronts coming through today and the arrival of the first occluded front this morning looks like offering the best chance of seeing some flakes falling. The second front expected this evening likely to be all-rain for us. It's very tempting to jump in the car and book into the Tan Hill Inn in the Yorkshire Dales - it will be quite an evening up there.

Turning to sleet on leading edge at 07.15 this morning:

The high res model 'take' on the next 24 hours (red = snow):

Arpege    Hirlam

[FlightlessWings]

(A few) Snow flakes falling on the top of Box Hill!

[SMU]

Good stuff 

tan hill 285 miles from here

0.1c here-

[SMU]

1 minute ago, FlightlessWings said:

(A few) Snow flakes falling on the top of Box Hill!

Good stuff - the top of box hill is 225M IIRC 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

What about evaportive cooling?> some of that PPN is very heavy.. 

[FlightlessWings]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Good stuff - the top of box hill is 225M IIRC 

Still falling sporadically to 100 metres (we are walking the dogs).

[snowspotter]

First post of the winter from me. Early morning cuppa looking outside back door and a few snowflakes blowing past 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

well i never.. its snowing 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Steve rckon we can hold the colder temps till that heavier stuff arrives?

[SMU]

hum... 50-50

I would think so- somewhere in there is the transition zone, remember its really about the 0c isotherm > once thats gone through about 11 then its pretty marginal so 2 hours 2 go...

Temp here 0.3c  WK probs -0.2 ish extra 100 M up.

 

Edited December 15, 2018 by Steve Murr

[lassie23]

Cold gone from the models this morning according to the MOD thread. I was going to give it another 5 days before I got excited but didn't expect it all to vanish after 24 hours 

[Radiating Dendrite]

1.5c and slowly rising here.

 

[Stuie]

Going to throw the Arome in for later this afternoon. Added that model to my thumbs up list.

 

[Stuie]

Maybe interesting. Not sure how you can have back edge snow if the cold air is pushed away.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Maybe interesting. Not sure how you can have back edge snow if the cold air is pushed away.

 

From what I saw in the MOD thread yesterday its a mild "sector" with colder air pushing in behind it so some wet snow/flakes mixed in cant be ruled out..

 

[summer blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Maybe interesting. Not sure how you can have back edge snow if the cold air is pushed away.

 

The bit at the front never sees snow because of the flow off the sea. This is where a surface undercut hurts the very east and brings me into play.

[jethro]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

There's two fronts coming through today and the arrival of the first occluded front this morning looks like offering the best chance of seeing some flakes falling. The second front expected this evening likely to be all-rain for us. It's very tempting to jump in the car and book into the Tan Hill Inn in the Yorkshire Dales - it will be quite an evening up there.

Turning to sleet on leading edge at 07.15 this morning:

The high res model 'take' on the next 24 hours (red = snow):

Arpege    Hirlam

Seriously, don't do it. The worst service ever, booked and paid for a room on-line, drove from Somerset got there at 9.30pm (as agreed via phone) they didn't have a room for us, denied us ever booking despite having the receipt. They put us in a grotty bunk room, one bathroom between guests and staff, and it just went downhill from there. Had to stay that night as no chance of finding anything else, left the next day with the landlady following us outside screaming and hurling abuse at us for leaving, Very unpleasant lady.

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The bit at the front never sees snow because of the flow off the sea. This is where a surface undercut hurts the very east and brings me into play.

Well the same model does show snow at the front but this mild sector must be from the channel right not the North sea.

Doubt any model has it completely nailed and will be a case of just look out the window/lamppost...

[snowfish1]

It could all be rain.... 

It could all be snow (don't be silly)