SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[greenhithe]

White christmas anyone looks like with the snow risk great in the southeasr

[Coopsy]

16 minutes ago, greenhithe said:

White christmas anyone looks like with the snow risk great in the southeasr

I put a tenner on London to have a white Christmas last month - 7/1. Fingers crossed

Reports of snow in West Malling at the moment - not sure how accurate that is

Edited December 14, 2018 by c00ps

[throwoff]

Lovely FI chart for xmas day

[Reefseeker]

Well that's my snow thirst quenched for the winter then....;)

[Blazerblue]

and yet more sleety crud for the evening walk, why does it happen when I have to go out!! Supposedly freezing rain tomorrow afternoon evening, there’s something to look forward to 

[lassie23]

it's too far out weatherwise to get your hopes up, i will give it five days

[Wimbledon88]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

it's too far out weatherwise to get your hopes up, i will give it five days

Very true that, but looking at the MET'S extended outlook, something is definitely brewing. 

I'm off to Kiev for Christmas so I dare say it will be rather chilly and snowy there.

[Kentspur]

11 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

it's too far out weatherwise to get your hopes up, i will give it five days

With our weather history 5days won't be enough sometimes our only forecast is just by looking out the window . Hopefully several decent frontal snowfall events will be in the forecast by 5 days time then we may have more chance of at least one of these verifying on the big day 

[stainesbloke]

Very nice winters day here with plenty of sunshine and a chilly maximum temperature of 3C. Good to get a break from grey skies and rain.

[snowray]

19 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Very true that, but looking at the MET'S extended outlook, something is definitely brewing. 

I'm off to Kiev for Christmas so I dare say it will be rather chilly and snowy there.

Never been to the Ukraine, is that a good place to visit right now?

[lassie23]

Be nice to be snowed in at Christmas, i could spend the day roasting my nuts by an open fire

[Bogman]

Had to go to one of our sites at Milton, Oxon earlier. Boy was it F*@"ing cold.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Bogman

[stainesbloke]

14 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Be nice to be snowed in at Christmas, i could spend the day roasting my nuts by an open fire

They rioting in Wembley again?

[lassie23]

19 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

They rioting in Wembley again?

lol hasn't been one for a few days

[steveinsussex]

Travelling from sussex to Cambridge tomorrow morning, no black ice please ....

[Stuie]

Well folks, pick the bones out of these charts. The icon the only chart showing which i presume will be freezing rain. Whatever happens it will be a interesting mess!

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Here is my 3rd report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t264), seen through the eyes of the GFS 12z run.See z500/850hPa charts below:

On this run, heights have been rising for a few days over Greenland, which has had the effect of forcing lows on a more southerly trajectory. By Christmas Day, we see colder 850 temps seeping down across the country, from the N.E. See chart below:

VERY HAPPY -  (35% - 50% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 15/8 to EVENS

SAMMY SNOWMAN, is a very happy bunny tonight, or should I say, an Arctic Hare. IF and it's a big IF, these charts come to fruition, I think our region would be very unlucky not to see some falling snow.

Obviously, Christmas Day is still 11 days away and there will still be a lot of chopping n' changing from the Forecast Models, during this time. This is in no way should be taken as a definitive forecast, I'm only basing this positive news on the charts GFS, has churned out this afternoon. IMO, the pattern they're depicting, is reminiscent of how the cold and wintry Winter of 1978/79 started. I won't post up any charts from that Winter but have a look at the link, below:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1978&maand=12&dag=23&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

Tomorrow, I will report on the ECM 12z (t240) chart, the first appearance of Christmas Day, on their radar. 

Next GFS 12z report - SUN.16th DEC. (t216).

Regards,

Tom.  

 

[Wimbledon88]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Never been to the Ukraine, is that a good place to visit right now?

Yeah, Kiev is fine,safe. Further east is a bit problematic. We ll be keeping an eye on the situation.

Beer at 50p a pint which is a bonus. 

Bitter cold mind, they've had a very cold start to winter there with a lot of snow already. 

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Yeah, Kiev is fine,safe. Further east is a bit problematic. We ll be keeping an eye on the situation.

Beer at 50p a pint which is a bonus. 

Bitter cold mind, they've had a very cold start to winter there with a lot of snow already. 

Cheers. I might go some day.

[snowray]

So any chance of a little slett or mushy wet snoe tomorrow then? I been a bit busy to keep up to date with things, I'd settle for freezing rain though at a push as long as it turns white for 5 seconds!

Edited December 14, 2018 by snowray

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Anyone for a riddle

Moki's got one planned for 5 a. m.!

[E17boy]

Hi people

Hey how is everyone? Hope you all are ok. I haven't posted for a while now but here I am again and my favourite time of the year.

well it's been rather cold day here in Walthamstow rather cloudy to end with, I was hoping to catch sight of any odd wintry bits that may have fallen but nothing caught my eyes. As far as tomorrow is concerned I think we will be lucky to see anything wintry most of what is going to fall will be the horrible cold rain. This is then the start to a mixed weather pattern for next week. 

I know there are some hints of cold weather by Christmas but a big question mark at the moment. The good news is that the BBC are sniffing something, just watched the extended forcast at the end it did say possibility of cold weather in time for Christmas something they will be keeping an eye on. 

So out journey goes on we await the Siberian Express. Who knows what time it's scheduled to stop here.

our search for our winter wonderland continues. 

Taje care for now people 

kind regards

[James Gold]

Anyone feeling optimistic about snow tomorrow? That event in November gave me some when I wasn’t expecting it to get to my low level above sea, so maybe still some hope?

[Daniel*]

Would say that’s of note Euro4 with accumulative snow Essex/Suffolk border. All cold rain for our region something tells me otherwise I think I’ll see all rain!

[Daniel*]

Plot thickens 18Z ECM gives snow in SE England! With 850hPa temps above freezing peculiar times, I seem to remember I think it was in 2016 in an otherwise unremarkable winter we had some pretty cold weather, so near continent was cold wind veered from south with +2C 850hPa temps managed an ice day even in London, the only one of the winter, and there was snow grains seem quite widely. 

Edited December 15, 2018 by Daniel*