SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Kentspur]

On 07/11/2018 at 07:03, shotski said:

Some much needed rain this morning for the southeast of England. Hopefully more to come later this week as well

Funny how times change so quickly were wishing anything but rain now a month later!

[lassie23]

14 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

You having met lassie23 then

lol i've only flirted with 50 percent of the females on netweather

[Dami]

and the rest, lass. 

yay. So not only are those last years snow pic depressing, I have thick boring fog. 

So yay.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

The 00z overnight runs all produced a very good looking t72 chart:

UKMO

ECM

GFS

But unfortunately the Atlantic powered up a notch more and the Scandinavian High Pressure, couldn't resist that low anymore. It does now look like the Atlantic will break through, by the weekend. Scandy High packed it's bags and "sulked" off, eastwards.

Good news for Sammy Snowman and as Daniel alluded to last night, the GFS 00Z has brought back a much colder option for Xmas Day, again:

Very interesting and much more like it but obviously these charts are likely to chop and change, on the run up to Xmas Day. Hopefully when I come to do my 2nd CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN report TUES.11th DEC.GFS 12z (t336), the Xmas Day chart will look very similar and Sammy Snowman will be able to breathe a huge sigh of relief!!

I will report back, later today.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Edited December 11, 2018 by TomSE12

[Donna3397]

It’s so nice to have a cold sunny morning, it’s so good to see the sun even if it is cold.    It’s about time we have some calm weather. It would’ve been  nice have a cold run up to Christmas but the charts are saying otherwise. It would be nice to see a white Christmas (I know I’m dreaming) but hopefully it will like today and that would  be my second choice. Hope everyone is enjoying the nice weather as much as me

Edited December 11, 2018 by DonnaThw

[Optimistic]

Luton Hoo this morning. Sunrise and freezing fog. I love winter!

[Matty88]

2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

The 00z overnight runs all produced a very good looking t72 chart:

UKMO

ECM

GFS

But unfortunately the Atlantic powered up a notch more and the Scandinavian High Pressure, couldn't resist that low anymore. It does now look like the Atlantic will break through, by the weekend. Scandy High packed it's bags and "sulked" off, eastwards.

Good news for Sammy Snowman and as Daniel alluded to last night, the GFS 00Z has brought back a much colder option for Xmas Day, again:

Very interesting and much more like it but obviously these charts are likely to chop and change, on the run up to Xmas Day. Hopefully when I come to do my 2nd CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN report TUES.11th DEC.GFS 12z (t336), the Xmas Day chart will look very similar and Sammy Snowman will be able to breathe a huge sigh of relief!!

I will report back, later today.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

I've learnt over the years to ignore these kind of 'one off' runs. Its a positive sign, but as you say, its just as likely that the GFS will throw out a mild South Westerly solution for Christmas day by this eve! 

The key will be if the cold solution run above sticks for a good few days... can't deny its a glimmer of hope though, buts its way too early to get excited just yet. Good to keep an eye on it though - there'll be a lot doing that over the next week or so!! 

The above N'Easterly set-up certainly favours our region though in terms of white stuff when they occur. Lets hope we get a set up like this at some point this winter 

[Froze were the Days]

No frost here surprise surprise!...slight cloud cover and a minima of 3.9c overnight - only once this Autumn/Winter have I woken up to a slight ground frost!

Looking forward to the snow on Xmas day Tom!...no chance you little tease!

[JennyJane1]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

lol i've only flirted with 50 percent of the females on netweather

only 50 percent, as low as that?

[lassie23]

19 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

3 hours ago, Dami said:

and the rest, lass. 

yay. So not only are those last years snow pic depressing, I have thick boring fog. 

So yay.

only 50 percent, as low as that?

 

lol never been good at maths. BBC going for an Atlantic victory in the punch-up.

[Dami]

If it snows on xmas day in beddy I will go out naked and sing jingle bells in it.

[Wimbledon88]

2 minutes ago, Dami said:

If it snows on xmas day in beddy I will go out naked and sing jingle bells in it.

*saves message for future reference *

[Dami]

1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:

*saves message for future reference *

never had snowfall on that day for 46 years so i think i'm pretty safe.

[SMU]

Just looking at temps for Fri -

4pm on the FV3 with -8c uppers-

Very chilly with odd snow flurry in the East

[Dami]

nah. It is mild out there. no chill in the air.

[lassie23]

this cold spell is over before it began, better luck next year although the OFI says no way

[Zak M]

I really miss summer here. The heatwave, humidity and most of all, convection and thunderstorms 

[Ben Lewis]

Watching Look east weather forecast just now as I did yesterday.

Still no ‘S’ word mentioned - so the wait continues. 

Milder and Atlantic driven weather by the weekend, however at least no major rainfall according to them, so a chance for a short lived dry out from the Atlantic bore fest, before the Atlantic muck sets in next week. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by Ben Lewis

[Dami]

1 hour ago, zmstorm said:

I really miss summer here. The heatwave, humidity and most of all, convection and thunderstorms 

where abouts are you? barely had a clap of thunder yet alone a proper storm.

[slater]

So frustrating reading the “ hunt for cold “ thread every year before Christmas they are throwing their toys out of the pram. They are all looking for snow two weeks ahead, and sulk when it disappears. This is the UK we are surrounded by the sea you cannot and I repeat cannot know where snow is going to fall 48 hrs ahead in some cases. 

Today in Norwich it’s been a lovely winters day 5c frost all day in the shade but no they aren’t happy with that.

Rant over!!!!

[Dami]

13 minutes ago, slater said:

So frustrating reading the “ hunt for cold “ thread every year before Christmas they are throwing their toys out of the pram. They are all looking for snow two weeks ahead, and sulk when it disappears. This is the UK we are surrounded by the sea you cannot and I repeat cannot know where snow is going to fall 48 hrs ahead in some cases. 

Today in Norwich it’s been a lovely winters day 5c frost all day in the shade but no they aren’t happy with that.

Rant over!!!!

I wouldn't say that. More like licking a certain posters bum every time they post.

[Tom Quintavalle]

CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Here is the second report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t384), seen through

the eyes of the GFS 12z run.See z500 chart below:

Complex area of Low Pressure is situated to the East of Iceland, a ridge extending N.E, from an area of High Pressure, near  The Azores. Rain associated with a cold front, has moved through overnight. Based on the above chart, Christmas Day would be mainly dry ( just the chance of an isolated shower.) Quite windy but with some decent sunny spells. Relatively mild with max. temps. of around 8c to 10c.

Have chosen the rather ambivalent "Sammy" again. Very little chance of snow, so "probability"

closer to 10%, rather than 19% and Betting Odds, should be at least 9/1. It could've been worse and

at least the flow, isn't a blowtorch S.W. 

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

Next update: FRI.14th DEC. (t264) GFS 12Z,

Still no reason to be despondent then and of course 14 days, is out in F.I. The model could well

switch back to a colder scenario again but this is my interpretation of what the weather would be like

at that time, based on the chart above. It's not meant to be a definitive forecast. 

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited December 11, 2018 by TomSE12

[Ben Lewis]

28 minutes ago, slater said:

So frustrating reading the “ hunt for cold “ thread every year before Christmas they are throwing their toys out of the pram. They are all looking for snow two weeks ahead, and sulk when it disappears. This is the UK we are surrounded by the sea you cannot and I repeat cannot know where snow is going to fall 48 hrs ahead in some cases. 

Today in Norwich it’s been a lovely winters day 5c frost all day in the shade but no they aren’t happy with that.

Rant over!!!!

I think it’s best to stick to Meto forecasts or TV forecasts if it frustrates you that much. 

The ‘hunt for cold thread’ is a daily mixture of emotions with ups and downs, one could call it fairly entertaining.

They are doing what makes them happy, their hobby - each to their own. They enjoy the ride and I have learnt to sit back and enjoy the ride for entertainment purposes when one day it shows blizzards and two days later it’s all but vanished. 

A crazy bunch but with level headed knowledgeable members offering different opinions it makes a good read. 

Stick with joe public on time reliable weather forecasts and dip into ‘hunt for cold’ on possible outcomes without judgement and you’ll be just fine. 

[slater]

3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I think it’s best to stick to Meto forecasts or TV forecasts if it frustrates you that much. 

The ‘hunt for cold thread’ is a daily mixture of emotions with ups and downs, one could call it fairly entertaining.

They are doing what makes them happy, their hobby - each to their own. They enjoy the ride and I have learnt to sit back and enjoy the ride for entertainment purposes when one day it shows blizzards and two days later it’s all but vanished. 

A crazy bunch but with level headed knowledgeable members offering different opinions it makes a good read. 

Stick with joe public on time reliable weather forecasts and dip into ‘hunt for cold’ on possible outcomes without judgement and you’ll be just fine. 

Completely agree, makes me laugh they get so excited and lose sleep when any sign that snow has gone. Charts 2 weeks ahead in winter will never be reliable.

this weekend prime example!! 

[shotski]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

I think it’s best to stick to Meto forecasts or TV forecasts if it frustrates you that much. 

The ‘hunt for cold thread’ is a daily mixture of emotions with ups and downs, one could call it fairly entertaining.

They are doing what makes them happy, their hobby - each to their own. They enjoy the ride and I have learnt to sit back and enjoy the ride for entertainment purposes when one day it shows blizzards and two days later it’s all but vanished. 

A crazy bunch but with level headed knowledgeable members offering different opinions it makes a good read. 

Stick with joe public on time reliable weather forecasts and dip into ‘hunt for cold’ on possible outcomes without judgement and you’ll be just fine. 

Totally agree with this, there’s some fantastic posters on there but you need to be careful not to get sucked into the hype.