SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi Shotski,

Thanks for your kind words. That word "potential" again but certainly interesting, even at this range!!

Regards,

Tom.  

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Here is the first report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t384), seen through the eyes of the GFS 12z run.See z500 chart below:

An area of low pressure has moved S.E. from Iceland, to be over Denmark/S.Sweden. by Noon on Christmas Day. A period of rain looks to move south over our region to clearer, colder air behind a cold front. Looking at that chart, it wouldn't be out of the question to see some "back edge wintriness, as colder air moves south into our region. Certainly looks like being a White Xmas for higher parts of Scotland, on the basis of this chart.

Have chosen the rather ambivalent "Sammy", although getting wet initially, he can look forward to a colder evening once the ppn, clears away, southwards.

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

Certainly no guarantee of seeing some of the "white stuff" but an interesting first glimpse of Xmas Day and the "potential", is there. A blowtorch south-westerly, it aint!! 

Next update: TUES.11th DEC. (t336) GFS 12z.

No reason to be despondent then but of course 16 days is out in F.I. And just as "a week is a long time in Politics", 48 hours is a very long time, in the world of Forecast Models.

Regards,

Tom. .

 

Good job you haven't based it on the new GFS para model - horrendous! - odds will have gone up to 100-1 and up probably 5-1 at William Hill

BBC week ahead forecast as ever very underwhelming but to be honest over the last couple of days has hardly ever looked like a wintery nirvana, going as low as 5-6c by Thursday/Friday which is laughable but at least it looks like being dry! (crumbs of comfort), I remember a brief easterly at the beginning of November back in the 90's and temps got no higher than 5c!

[Methuselah]

6 hours ago, lassie23 said:

It's beyond grim these days, need the strat to fry just to get two days of cold

If we're really lucky, lass, we could get 6 hours' wind-driven ice pellets...Happy days, eh?

[snowray]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If we're really lucky, lass, we could get 6 hours' wind-driven ice pellets...Happy days, eh?

Yes I'm thinking flurries and Ice pellets too for late next week, might accumulate over night to give us a magical sprinkling of fairy dust by the early morning.

Edited December 9, 2018 by snowray

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Annnnnnnnnd I think im coming down with Flu.. 

Started as a sore throat and cough last week and coughing up blood yesterday and now today im really in pain.. 

Really really really Tut me off when people go to the doctors with a cold or minor bug to try and get antibiotics.

I know, flu is virial .. but if I have a chest infection and need antibioticts the likely hood is now they wont work... 

I dont get the flu jab... Total unfair system when someone that actually needs it suffers.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

On a more happy note... cold and snow anyone?
 

 

[Dami]

Not going to snow.

 

[Wimbledon88]

4 hours ago, Dami said:

Not going to snow.

 

Nope, afraid not, never was on the cards anyway... Well only on Christmas cards. 

Looks wet and wild from end of the week onwards. At least it ll be vaguely interesting unlike the next few days of zzzzzzness. 10c and cloudy in December is a poor show. 

Bring on the wind rain and gales.At least there will be some interest.  

 

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Wimbledon88

[Matty88]

Agreed - a wet and mild Christmas is looking more and more likely. The charts have indicated a northerly dive towards Christmas this last few days but its hit and miss - I'd say its a 20% chance right now, and even if it did happen it wouldn't guarantee snow as North/North Westerlies are never a favourite for us.  

Looking at how the Jet and heights are behaving I personally have a feeling that we will need to hold out until early-mid January for anything of significance. There's also a very slim (15%) chance that we could get some transient white stuff Friday/this weekend if everything goes in our favour - it seems like a big ask though. 

That said - I could well be wrong and have been caught out in the past! I will keep things crossed   

[username home]

On 08/12/2018 at 23:07, Mokidugway said:

Love your avi you look like my former partner  when I lived in the US

wow. seriously creepy behaviour.....

[Mokidugway]

23 minutes ago, username home said:

wow. seriously creepy behaviour.....

You having met lassie23 then

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, Matty88 said:

Agreed - a wet and mild Christmas is looking more and more likely. The charts have indicated a northerly dive towards Christmas this last few days but its hit and miss - I'd say its a 20% chance right now, and even if it did happen it wouldn't guarantee snow as North/North Westerlies are never a favourite for us.  

Looking at how the Jet and heights are behaving I personally have a feeling that we will need to hold out until early-mid January for anything of significance. There's also a very slim (15%) chance that we could get some transient white stuff Friday/this weekend if everything goes in our favour - it seems like a big ask though. 

That said - I could well be wrong and have been caught out in the past! I will keep things crossed   

One thing for sure it wouldn’t be mild! And I do not know where you are getting that impression from Xmas day itself has only come into range of GFS in trusty FI... and from what I’ve seen cooler and wetter around the period seems more likely than very mild SW’ly winds definitely seems seasonable weather won’t be far.  

[SMU]

Updated upper air for Friday from the ECM!

definite light flurries along the thames

[Ben Lewis]

Just watched Look East forecast for the week.

Mainly dry week ahead a feeling much more seasonal with temps around 5c by Friday before the Atlantic fed air returns by Saturday and temperatures back up to 9c with possible rain showers about. 

Chance for a little ground dry out at least from the recent weeks of soaking. 

[Angel Wings]

Well been lurking in the background over the summer months , now we are in my favourite season , let’s hope for something very much like the end of 17 and the beginning of 18 to end 18 and enter 19 , looking forward to many of your informative posts over the winter period

[shotski]

40 minutes ago, Angel Wings said:

Well been lurking in the background over the summer months , now we are in my favourite season , let’s hope for something very much like the end of 17 and the beginning of 18 to end 18 and enter 19 , looking forward to many of your informative posts over the winter period

Probably get more sense in here than on the MAD thread. Hopefully a busy and white winter

[Tom Quintavalle]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

One thing for sure it wouldn’t be mild! And I do not know where you are getting that impression from Xmas day itself has only come into range of GFS in trusty FI... and from what I’ve seen cooler and wetter around the period seems more likely than very mild SW’ly winds definitely seems seasonable weather won’t be far.  

Not sure I agree with that Daniel. My next full Xmas Day report, will be tomorrow after the GFS 12z. But today's 12z for noon, Xmas Day (t360), wasn't good and poor Sammy Snowman, would've become a "slush puppy".

  = SAD

(9% or less PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 10/1 or more.

The 12z GFS runs in between my reports on SUN, TUES and FRI, I'm keeping a record of. Yes, of course it's F.I and there will be much chopping and changing, before Xmas Day itself but certainly, today's wasn't good.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by TomSE12

[Wimbledon88]

15 minutes ago, shotski said:

Probably get more sense in here than on the MAD thread. Hopefully a busy and white winter

Would'nt venture into the MAD thread just now, there's alot of angst and anger in there.  

[Daniel*]

18 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Not sure I agree with that Daniel. My next full Xmas Day report, will be tomorrow after the GFS 12z. But today's 12z for noon, Xmas Day (t360), wasn't good and poor Sammy Snowman, would've become a "slush puppy".

  = SAD

(9% or less PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 10/1 or more.

The 12z GFS runs in between my reports on SUN, TUES and FRI, I'm keeping a record of. Yes, of course it's F.I and there will be much chopping and changing, before Xmas Day itself but certainly, today's wasn't good.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

A misunderstanding in reference to northerly airstream GFS has been consistently showing a northerly airstream with a ridge to w, in fact that is the first run I’ve seen go for a mild Christmas.

[Angel Wings]

30 minutes ago, shotski said:

Probably get more sense in here than on the MAD thread. Hopefully a busy and white winter

To be honest I have been in there for the last month watching the banter but also seeing a lot of dummies being thrown out of prams , it’s very hard as a novice , even tho I been on this forum for a few years to make out what exactly is going on from one day to the next with everyone’s different views on the weather.

i just sit back and watch (mainly grown men) throwing there testosterone around like snowballs , to me being female it is hilarious and I take it all with a pinch of salt and just try to fathom out what’s actually in the charts etc by reading between the lines  

[shotski]

31 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Not sure I agree with that Daniel. My next full Xmas Day report, will be tomorrow after the GFS 12z. But today's 12z for noon, Xmas Day (t360), wasn't good and poor Sammy Snowman, would've become a "slush puppy".

  = SAD

(9% or less PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 10/1 or more.

The 12z GFS runs in between my reports on SUN, TUES and FRI, I'm keeping a record of. Yes, of course it's F.I and there will be much chopping and changing, before Xmas Day itself but certainly, today's wasn't good.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Extended EPS anomaly charts would appear to back up above, temperatures around average. But if we’re looking at the more reliable time frame, 4-5 days, things certainly look of some interest. The more cold we can get into mainland Europe this week the better our chances going forward. 

[shotski]

A year ago today

[Angel Wings]

This was my area this day last year ! Wow how time flies , sadly my beautiful German shepherd passed away end March this year so this was his last winter but he loved snow so makes me happy he got to be in it before he crossed over rainbow bridge

[LightningLover]

1 hour ago, Angel Wings said:

This was my area this day last year ! Wow how time flies , sadly my beautiful German shepherd passed away end March this year so this was his last winter but he loved snow so makes me happy he got to be in it before he crossed over rainbow bridge

Sorry to hear that. Losing a beloved pet sucks, and i've been there; Our cat Robbie passed away last year with a blood clot in has paw, but he lived until the grand old age of 19!

[Sparky68]

Cambs to MK commute ranged from 1c to 3c and more fog the closer to MK I got.