SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Christmas will be the usual i reckon, 10c sunny morning cloudy afternoon

And a dark evening ! 

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And a dark evening ! 

and stuffed and asleep by 5 pm lol

[Froze were the Days]

Jeez! just popped into the MAD thread...UKMO is now not very good at a certain range for our part of the world as of course it's not showing what they want and yes GEM is the best model at a certain range (currently showing colder conditions)...laughable at times!

[Dami]

Been busy all day doing stuff but I could see it was blowly out. Had a few showers of rain while I was sorting out some more christmas decs, so I now have some candles lit, a glass of bubbles and hubs has dinner in.  Slowly looking more christmasy, just add sleet.

 

[Daniel*]

Not feeling very festive this year not just weather sprained my ankle quite badly, oh well could be much worse. Looks much more seasonal next week still a flicker some of us could see white stuff. 

[Daniel*]

22 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

More Atlantic crud today with a soaking wet drive to work, temps mild at 11c 

Ground bogged and fields flooded here. 

No cross model agreement of a dry out/ colder weather in the foreseeable either. 

Very autumnal rather than winter. 

Hopefully January brings more settled seasonal weather! 

 

It seems like it’s rained every sodding day since meteorological winter started hopefully not a sign of things to come through winter, January should be interesting maybe even tailend of Dec. I’d love to see core wintry weather feature in midwinter it’s been a long while since there has been something really historic.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Daniel*

[Ben Lewis]

24 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It seems like it’s rained every sodding day since meteorological winter started hopefully not a sign of things to come through winter, January should be interesting maybe even tailend of Dec. I’d love to see core wintry weather feature in midwinter it’s been a long while since there has been something really historic.

Wishing you all the best for that sprain. Its painful, went through it last year after a game of football. 

I know, when I was reading posts this summer crying for rain, I always said it was balance out - Days upon days of rain and it’s only 8th December. Never understood those wishing for rain during a dry spell in one of the wettest countries in Europe. 

[Froze were the Days]

Amazing how most in the south east today managed a max of 11c+ in a modified Pm air mass!...a few decades ago this would never of happened, warmer SST's etc. must being play a part.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[snowrye]

Well,after the long,warm,dry and beautiful summer for our part of the world,the last few weeks has certainly bought the water levels up,thought today was supposed to be ok,been raining most of the day,still,my boys won,city lost,hoping for some winter weather soon,wind and rain can take a back seat

[Lauren]

Feels like it's been blowing a hooligan for the last 24 hours but the wind gusts don't seem to match up with what it feels like.

[moogyboobles]

29 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Feels like it's been blowing a hooligan for the last 24 hours but the wind gusts don't seem to match up with what it feels like.

I was thinking the same, especially in the last hour or so. 

[Mokidugway]

4 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

I was thinking the same, especially in the last hour or so. 

Love your avi you look like my former partner  when I lived in the US

[Matty88]

Well been watching contently this last few weeks as the charts have been all over the shot. Despite all the bods in the chart discussion hunt for cold thread rather excitable it never looked to me like the cold weather would come off and now looks like a relatively mild and stormy week for us lot next week.

Will be another 10 days before any chances of the white stuff come knocking I reckon, or early Jan. Oh well -  at least won’t have to worry about defrosting the car! 

Edited December 9, 2018 by Matty88

[Katrine Basso]

Earlier in the morning, the sunshine was so bright that it looked liked I had light on.  This did not last and it clouded over again.  It is windy day with very light rain.  The sun is coming out again filling the room with light.  The temperature is 9° but feels more like 6° . The average wind speed is 16 miles per hour with gusts of 27 miles per hour.

[lassie23]

12 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

Love your avi you look like my former partner  when I lived in the US

it's not her is it?

[yamkin]

 

 

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

 

 

needs to happen soon because of the two week lag in the effect it has on the weather, otherwise we will have a white new year lol

[yamkin]

The following is in Fantasy Island mode, but it is nice to see GFS in the 'run up to' Xmas mood 

[Froze were the Days]

28 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

needs to happen soon because of the two week lag in the effect it has on the weather, otherwise we will have a white new year lol

I'd take it whether when ever it and if it happens as long as it's before February!...optimal time would be late December or early January, have to keep fingers crossed as without one we really struggle to get any noteworthy cold air to our shores and even then a 2 in 3 chance but certainly better than zilch which seems to be happening currently.

Interestingly the last time our part of the world even had a cold or just a frosty end to the Year into the New Year was way back in 2009/10...since then nadda!!

Edited December 9, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[lassie23]

31 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I'd take it whether when ever it and if it happens as long as it's before February!...optimal time would be late December or early January, have to keep fingers crossed as without one we really struggle to get any noteworthy cold air to our shores and even then a 2 in 3 chance but certainly better than zilch which seems to be happening currently.

Interestingly the last time our part of the world even had a cold or just a frosty end to the Year into the New Year was way back in 2009/10...since then nadda!!

It's beyond grim these days, need the strat to fry just to get two days of cold

[LightningLover]

Hello! Feeling festive atm, as we have just put our tree and decorations up. There were some fairly large waves along Bexhill seafront earlier, as well as some considerable swell. I really hope we get cold weather in time for Christmas!

[Dami]

As much as I would like some snow, I think i'll keep to the day by day forecasts and not the fishing for likes thread. Honestly just a load of wind up. 

Boring weather wise, hubs put some lights out front of house and we now are watching Dr who which is pretty awful.

more decs been ordered as I said we need more lights. \o/

 

Edited December 9, 2018 by Dami

[Tom Quintavalle]

CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Here is the first report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t384), seen through the eyes of the GFS 12z run.See z500 chart below:

An area of low pressure has moved S.E. from Iceland, to be over Denmark/S.Sweden. by Noon on Christmas Day. A period of rain looks to move south over our region to clearer, colder air behind a cold front. Looking at that chart, it wouldn't be out of the question to see some "back edge wintriness, as colder air moves south into our region. Certainly looks like being a White Xmas for higher parts of Scotland, on the basis of this chart.

Have chosen the rather ambivalent "Sammy", although getting wet initially, he can look forward to a colder evening once the ppn, clears away, southwards.

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

Certainly no guarantee of seeing some of the "white stuff" but an interesting first glimpse of Xmas Day and the "potential", is there. A blowtorch south-westerly, it aint!! 

Next update: TUES.11th DEC. (t336) GFS 12z.

No reason to be despondent then but of course 16 days is out in F.I. And just as "a week is a long time in Politics", 48 hours is a very long time, in the world of Forecast Models.

Regards,

Tom. .

 

[shotski]

16 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Here is the first report on the likely conditions at Noon, on Christmas Day (t384), seen through the eyes of the GFS 12z run.See z500 chart below:

An area of low pressure has moved S.E. from Iceland, to be over Denmark/S.Sweden. by Noon on Christmas Day. A period of rain looks to move south over our region to clearer, colder air behind a cold front. Looking at that chart, it wouldn't be out of the question to see some "back edge wintriness, as colder air moves south into our region. Certainly looks like being a White Xmas for higher parts of Scotland, on the basis of this chart.

Have chosen the rather ambivalent "Sammy", although getting wet initially, he can look forward to a colder evening once the ppn, clears away, southwards.

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

Certainly no guarantee of seeing some of the "white stuff" but an interesting first glimpse of Xmas Day and the "potential", is there. A blowtorch south-westerly, it aint!! 

Next update: TUES.11th DEC. (t336) GFS 12z.

No reason to be despondent then but of course 16 days is out in F.I. And just as "a week is a long time in Politics", 48 hours is a very long time, in the world of Forecast Models.

Regards,

Tom. .

 

Thanks Tom, as always a great read.

[Ben Lewis]

Despite the slight excitement over on ‘hunt for cold thread’ regarding UKMO latest run.

Just watched Countryfile week ahead with Schaffer’s. Predominately dry week coming up with temps creeping down to 5c-6c - no rain at least with a cool south easterly wind setting in holding off the Atlantic muck. 

Atlantic muck due thereafter though with Him confirming more unsettled weather to come post weekend from Atlantic. Oh joy - more wind and rain. 

I’m still in the opinion we’ll see snow falling in our region in 2019 if at all. 

*remembering that epic snowfall this time last year on 10th December - 5 inches and a total white out that spread further south than forecast. Great pre crimbo weather  

Edited December 9, 2018 by Ben Lewis