SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Badgers01]

15 minutes ago, weathertoski said:

That's an evil little squall line developing!

imagine it is pretty wild under it - wonder if it will sustain itself or peter out as it gets to the east of the isle of wight like they always seem to !!

[Mark wheeler]

Absolute filth out there this morning , can clearly see that nasty squall line near the back of the band , hopefully it clears through sharpish .

[Methuselah]

Really is left-trouser-legging-it-down out there! But, at least the windows'll be nice and clean for viewing Sunday's 'major snow event'?

[Tom Quintavalle]

Many years ago, under the guise of TOMSE20, I can remember exchanging posts with a member called Terminal Moraine. We were discussing a piece of Weather Lore (for want of a better phrase.), attributed to Weatherman Colin Finch(R.I.P.), entitled the 38F rule. Colin Finch used to have a weather slot on Radio London, many moons ago and espoused his 38F theory, during that time, after doing some exhaustive research.

It came to mind, after reading an exchange of posts, between Crewe Cold and Weather History. C.C.. was stating that he's not a fan of very mild December's being a favourable sign for cold, wintry weather in Jan/Feb. W.H., I think was suggesting that December's weather didn't have much bearing on the rest of Winter and quoted some examples. But I must admit, I'm with Crewe Cold on this. I'm not a fan of very mild December's leading on to decent wintry spells in Jan/Feb, either. 

I thought members would like to read of the theory and make their minds up for themselves. It certainly offers, food for thought. See link to article below:

https://wansteadmeteo.com/2014/12/07/weatherlore-colin-finchs-38f-rule/

Regards,

Tom.  

 

[Nick F]

Bit of a line squall passing through here in south London atm, brief intense spell of rain within general rain this morning

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Bit of a line squall passing through here in south London atm, brief intense spell of rain within general rain this morning

Yes Nick, going through here in Lee, right now. Quite a racket outside!!

Regards,

Tom. 

[Wimbledon88]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Really is left-trouser-legging-it-down out there! But, at least the windows'll be nice and clean for viewing Sunday's 'major snow event'?

Yeaaahh. Sunday's snow event back on again???  Models sniffing the coffee then. 

 

[Dami]

It's quite depressing that last year that this rain *could* of been snow. It is also quite depressing that people in my Village didn't show any Christmas spirit other to be rude but that's another story.

Anyways not one to worry about rain and wind, living on the coast for 30 odd years does that to a girl. You just buy boots and a raincoat and off you pop. However It is stopping us sorting out the garden for bubs and the front of house lights. Hubs wants to get some more lights but thats *if* there is any now left as the shops seem very eager to get Christmas out of the way.

watching trading places while bubs is at school it is then.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Many years ago, under the guise of TOMSE20, I can remember exchanging posts with a member called Terminal Moraine. We were discussing a piece of Weather Lore (for want of a better phrase.), attributed to Weatherman Colin Finch(R.I.P.), entitled the 38F rule. Colin Finch used to have a weather slot on Radio London, many moons ago and espoused his 38F theory, during that time, after doing some exhaustive research.

It came to mind, after reading an exchange of posts, between Crewe Cold and Weather History. C.C.. was stating that he's not a fan of very mild December's being a favourable sign for cold, wintry weather in Jan/Feb. W.H., I think was suggesting that December's weather didn't have much bearing on the rest of Winter and quoted some examples. But I must admit, I'm with Crewe Cold on this. I'm not a fan of very mild December's leading on to decent wintry spells in Jan/Feb, either. 

I thought members would like to read of the theory and make their minds up for themselves. It certainly offers, food for thought. See link to article below:

https://wansteadmeteo.com/2014/12/07/weatherlore-colin-finchs-38f-rule/

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Thanks for posting that. Tom. And, yes, I also remember a number of days' rain/sleet/wet snow (cold zonality?) during the Decembers of the late 1960s - of which, the rain>sleet>snow event of Xmas Eve 1968 was a prime example; I can even recall watching soggy sleet start falling at, you've guessed it, 38F!

[LightningLover]

Squall line wasn't exactly felt in Hastings, However the rain has been moderate-heavy and very steady for a couple of hours now. It's just beginning to clear now. Wind has been fairly gusty, too.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Have just been speaking to local weatherman Ian Currie, who lives down in Storrington, West Sussex. This morning has been very wet down there. He's recorded around 20 mms of rain, in the last 24 hours and nigh on 100 mms(around 4 inches) since 27th November.

He thinks this unsettled spell will last, with a short break around mid-month, up until Christmas. When I mentioned very mild December's not being a good signal for cold and wintry spells for the rest of Winter, he pretty much poo-pooed the theory!! He quoted a pretty mild Dec.1954, which led to a very cold Feb 1955. Also, a very mild Dec.1985, which led to the 2nd coldest Feb. of 20th Century 1986, with a C.E.T of -1.1c. There were frequent light snowfalls.  I remember Feb.1986 well, not a great deal of snow cover but what did fall, stuck.  It certainly was bitterly cold, in S.E.London.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

 

[Methuselah]

Squall-line just passing through. Biblical rain!

[lassie23]

I thought the Atlantic was supposed to be dead, i'm going to rustle up some eggs so people can put them on their faces

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If the GFS 12z is to be believed... 

We is going to be needing a very big boat... 

[Ben Lewis]

More Atlantic crud today with a soaking wet drive to work, temps mild at 11c 

Ground bogged and fields flooded here. 

No cross model agreement of a dry out/ colder weather in the foreseeable either. 

Very autumnal rather than winter. 

Hopefully January brings more settled seasonal weather! 

 

Edited December 7, 2018 by Ben Lewis

[Zak M]

Saw an evil-looking cumulonimbus at 3pm this afternoon. The cloud came to my area and produced hail.

[John Stevens]

2 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

More Atlantic crud today with a soaking wet drive to work, temps mild at 11c 

Ground bogged and fields flooded here. 

No cross model agreement of a dry out/ colder weather in the foreseeable either. 

Very autumnal rather than winter. 

Hopefully January brings more settled seasonal weather! 

 

Whilst the models aren't necessarily ALL in agreement, there world certainly appear to be more positive movement back towards the possibility of cold next weekend.... Given what the Mod thread is talking about this evening there's still possibly much to look forward to later next week..... All is not lost for cold and

[tinybill]

morning  all  off to work  i know it will not happen   ,but get down to the bookies !

[Tom Quintavalle]

Awoke early again, around about 3.30 AM. A combination of a howling wind and very shrill birdsong (evidently, Blackbirds or Robins.)

Just want to post up the timetable I'll be applying for the White Xmas item I'll be posting up, entitled CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN with SAMMY SNOWMAN. The first report will be after the GFS 12Z, tomorrow. The timetable will be as follows:

SUN.9th DEC. (t384) GFS 12z, TUES.11th DEC. (t336) GFS 12z, FRI.14th DEC. (t264) GFS 12Z,

SUN.16th DEC. (t216) GFS12z, TUES 18th DEC. (t168) GFS 12z, FRI. 21st DEC. (t96) GFS 12z.

SUN.23rd DEC (t48). 

Once Xmas Day appears on the ECM radar, I will also update my report with their data, as follows:

SAT.15th DEC (t240) ECM 12z, TUES 18th DEC. (t168) ECM 12z, FRI.21st DEC. (t96) ECM 12z,

SUN.23rd DEC (t48).

I will post up the accompanying z500 Synoptic chart plus the appropriate SAMMY SNOWMAN and my estimation of % probability and betting odds, for a White Xmas. Obviously, I'm living in S.E.London but hopefully my updates will give all S.E.Regional members, a general idea of conditions on Xmas Day, around our region.

Just want to post up those SAMMY SNOWMEN again, in various states of emotion:

VERY HAPPY -  (35% - 50% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 15/8 to EVENS

.

CONTENT - (20% - 34% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 4/1 to 2/1.

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

SAD - (9% or less PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 10/1 or more.

I will post up the first report around about early evening tomorrow, after the GFS 12z comes out with accompanying t384 chart.

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited December 8, 2018 by TomSE12

[Lauren]

The big old fir tree in the garden is leaning .  Been strong gusts all night.

[Tom Quintavalle]

I commented the other day about the ludicrous Odds of 4/1 about a White Xmas at Heathrow Airport. Crazy!!

Evidently, London had 7 White Christmases, in the 20th Century. Around 1 year in 14, was white. In my estimation, that should give Odds of 14/1 to 16/1. I even feel that's conservative. As I stated the other day, they are using Heathrow as the recording station, just west of London is hardly a snowy location.

I found these Odds on Oddschecker, a Betting Odds comparison website. They were attributed to Irish Bookmaker, Paddy Power. Also, they were highlighted in blue, which signifies that they have taken money, for that outcome.

Where did that money come from? I wonder if it came from a Professional Meteorologist, perhaps Darren (at least it will be mild), had the Bett (sic)!! 

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

 

 

[Katrine Basso]

It is very sunny  with a clear blue sky and it is very blustery in South Ockendon and the trees look like are waving their branches, making them look like they are dancing.  There are gusts of 31 miles per hour and the average wind speed is 21 miles per hour.  The temperature is 9° but feels more like 5°.

[Froze were the Days]

Nice to see the sun out today though it's being accompanied by a blustery westerly breeze - but STILL effin' mild!!!!!! 11c currently, at least it looks like next week we'll see more seasonal and dare say it slightly below temperatures.

By the way totally agree with TomSE12 about the white xmas odds!...ridiculously short.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[lassie23]

Christmas will be the usual i reckon, 10c sunny morning cloudy afternoon

[Mokidugway]

Hot and sunny 24c somewhere