SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Yet you get the same posters who are in denial picking cold charts that will never happen and trying to convince everyone else that they know best

Folks love being told what they want hear...Even when it's usually a pile of roadblocks!

We should just take it as it comes - warts and all:

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Folks love being told what they want hear...Even when it's usually a pile of roadblocks!

We should just take it as it comes - warts and all:

  yes at the moment it's goat ugly for cold and snow lovers

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

  yes at the moment it's goat ugly for cold and snow lovers

Time to move north, I think...? Goatsmon!

[lassie23]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Time to move north, I think...? Goatsmon!

At least you are guaranteed sleet oop norf

[SLEETY]

anyone think our region will have a decent covering of snow before the end of the month?

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just checked on the latest Odds for a White Christmas in London. I've seen quotes from three Bookmakers, ranging between 4/1 and 13/2 (6 and a half to one.) That really is tantamount to daylight robbery!! In my estimation, the true Odds should be between 16/1 and 20/1, at the moment.

Evidently, London had 7 White Christmases in the 20th Century. So around 1 year in 14, was white.

Once the models, namely the GFS, homes in on Christmas Day ( at t384), 9th Dec., I will post up what I feel should be the true Odds for a White Christmas in London. Once the ECM model comes into range  (at t240), 15th Dec, that will give me two models, to base my Odds on. 

Bookmaker's are quoting Odds for London based on Heathrow Airport being the recording station. As we are aware Heathrow, with it's west of London location, is hardly a very snowy locale!!

I will produce my Odds accompanied by a Snowman, as follows:

  HAPPY -   (30% - 40% Chance) - ODDS: 9/4 to 6/4.

AMBIVALENT -  (10% -29% Chance) - ODDS: 9/1 to 5/2.

SAD -  (9% or LESS Chance) ODDS -  11/1 or more.

I hope that's ok with the Forum hosts!! I plan to update these Odds a few times a week, on the run up to Christmas Day.

So with Odds of between 4/1 and 6 and a half to 1, on offer at the moment, I would strongly advise S.E. members, to keep their hard earned cash in their pockets.

Regards,

Tom.       

Edited December 6, 2018 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

Looking at today's CFSv2 for NOON on Christmas Day (t462), a White Christmas looks highly unlikely for London.

 

 

(9% or LESS Chance - ODDS -  11/1 or more.)

But I only plan to use the GFS and ECM models when Christmas Day, comes into range.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited December 6, 2018 by TomSE12

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Even my advent calender is getting touchy.. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Missed this.. Could be quite a nasty feature this tomorrow morning.. 

Wind chart not for the same time as its not out or got an error

 

[lassie23]

6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

anyone think our region will have a decent covering of snow before the end of the month?

It's looking soggy to me

[Zak M]

Looking at all the radars from every possible website, it looks like we all could get something nasty tomorrow morning. Very high wind gusts, 50mph+ possibly, very heavy rain, perhaps an odd rumble of thunder and even hail is possible.

[Zak M]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Missed this.. Could be quite a nasty feature this tomorrow morning.. 

Wind chart not for the same time as its not out or got an error

 

It looks like a mini squall line through all that band of rain. Don't know what's happening there in Northern Ireland... 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, as28 said:

Looking at all the radars from every possible website, it looks like we all could get something nasty tomorrow morning. Very high wind gusts, 50mph+ possibly, very heavy rain, perhaps an odd rumble of thunder and even hail is possible.

Better than today's rubbish, then?

 

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Better than today's rubbish, then?

 

What rubbish? 

[Zak M]

This is going to be my last post of the day.

Looking at what I posted and what everyone has posted, I'm kind of excited tomorrow.

All I like is thunder and lightning really, although I think I could catch a storm or something. I have got no idea why I think this, it's just a weird thought in my head that I wanted to spill out.

However, even if the storms come within 100 miles of my location, I can still see them. I live on a hill, and I can see thunderheads all the way to the English Channel. Is this normal? 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Woken up really early, by birdsong. As Katrine B., reported from S.Essex the other day, here in S.E.London, we have had a sudden increase in birds singing this early, as well. The Dawn Chorus, was especially loud during late Spring and throughout Summer but died to virtual silence in the Autumn. I have just googled, about this. It seems the main culprits are likely to be, Blackbirds or Robins. But just before I came downstairs, the "offenders" were struggling to be heard against the background noise, of a rising wind. That squally cold front, mentioned above, about to impact our region.

Regards,

Tom. 

[tinybill]

looking very wet soon  here and windy   could be trouble with the bridges in our area soon!!

[Sparky68]

Horrible commute to work that A421 is the worst road to drive in the rain. It's a bit gusty here in MK but rain is fairly light.

[lassie23]

Typical UK December grot outside. Wind, rain, windy and grotty, it's about time Christmas card snow was replaced grot for some realism, happy grotsmess everyone

[Lauren]

What an absolutely delightful day out there

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 hour ago, tinybill said:

looking very wet soon  here and windy   could be trouble with the bridges in our area soon!!

Today not a problem only issue maybe squall line that is starting to develop now on the back of the main rain band.. 

Saturday night into Sunday looks more iffy wind wise could be some quite big gusts even inland 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hope Forum Hosts don't mind, going to return to the White Christmas post, I put up yesterday. Have decided to call the item, CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN with SAMMY SNOWMAN, a crafty bit of alliteration there!! Hope I don't get into trouble if Channel 4 are about to broadcast a festive edition of there long-running, word game show!!

Have decided to "tweak" the Odds that I posted yesterday and add another Snowman.

VERY HAPPY -  (35% - 50% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 15/8 to EVENS

.

CONTENT - (20% - 34% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 4/1 to 2/1.

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

SAD - (9% or less PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 10/1 or more.

I will next post on the chances of a White Christmas for our region, when the "big day" comes onto the radar of the GFS, at t384 on Sunday 9th.

I hope the Forum Hosts and Regional members are ok with this. If there are any problems, could you please let me know by PM. Thank you.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Edited December 7, 2018 by TomSE12

[bluebell]

I’m bell ringing for a wedding in Rye this afternoon, poor devils i don’t think they’ll be having any photos outside! ?

[SLEETY]

I’ll offer odds of 10/1 we get a white christmas now,looking at this mornings output.

And odds of 1/5 on we don’t get a white xmas 

[weathertoski]

That's an evil little squall line developing!