SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I thought it was a goat lol but looks a bit donk, maybe a goatkey

Oh thats alright then. 

I thought it might have been one of your goats that you dressed up all festive for a school nativity play or for Santa's Christmas grotto. Looks really cute though that goatkey.

[Methuselah]

Just now, lassie23 said:

potpoodle, oh weather info, errrrr a cloudy daze here today

I bet that's pronounced po-pudlay, around Mayfair?

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

potpoodle, oh weather info, errrrr a cloudy daze here today

Cloudys deed, accident with  the new dyson hair dryer ,heavy lifting equipment was needed

[Mokidugway]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

potpoodle, oh weather info, errrrr a cloudy daze here today

Cloudys deed, accident with  the new dyson hair dryer ,heavy lifting equipment was needed poor so killed twice

Edited December 4, 2018 by Mokidugway

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Cloudys deed, accident with  the new dyson hair dryer ,heavy lifting equipment was needed poor so killed twice

OMG sounds nasty....Is everyone ok?

[Tom Quintavalle]

Amazing ECM run tonight.

That middle chart is virtually identical to Jan.12th 1987 but obviously, not the depth of cold, as it's a month earlier. 

**IF**, ECM have called this correctly we could be looing at some heavy, wintry showers (possibly definite snow)!!

Worth bookmarking the website, attached to the link below:

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/southend-on-sea.htm

With SST's at around 11c/12c off the coast at Southend and with ECM forecasting 850 temps of between -6c/-7c, most of the criteria will have been met for the triggering of some pretty heavy wintry (possibly snow) showers. Also the likelihood of shower "trains", "streamers" forming.

Obviously, the caveat being that ECM have called this correctly, at that range!! 

Regards,

Tom. 

[bluebell]

3 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

Cloudys deed, accident with  the new dyson hair dryer ,heavy lifting equipment was needed

WTF...?!! Whichever way sounds nasty! 

[weathergeek]

Models looking tasty!! I wonder if we'll all be in here next week, chasing our first snow?!x

[Tom Quintavalle]

Awoke very early, to the sound of rain and the tell-tale "swish" sound of isolated traffic on the South Circular, close by. Now downstairs with a cuppa, having just watched a recording of MeteoGroup's, "Weather For The Week Ahead", Darren "at least it will be mild" Bett!!

Darren started his forecast with the following statement, "Easterly winds are set to make a return in the outlook and that's never a good sign". Really, Darren?? No wonder he's such a legend with MOST members on NW. I've highlighted MOST, as I got into trouble in the Summer for suggesting heat and humidity wasn't necessarily a "quote" win-win situation, for all members. I was accused of laying down, "guilt trips". NO, just offering a sense of balance  to some of the over zealous musings of certain individuals, on the Model thread. By the same token, we should all be aware that an onset of any cold, wintry weather, won't necessarily be a "win-win" situation for all members again. It's not all members, "cup of tea". For the great majority, it will be of course, should it occur. Just wanted to offer a sense of balance again, before I continue!!

Wednesday dawns, having seen rain associated with a warm front, clearing through the east of our region. The cold front waiting in the "wings", to our west. The rain, associated with this cold front should clear the region, during the afternoon. Max. temps. for the London area around, a  mild 13c today. Another mild day on Thursday, around 14c, with a spell of rain crossing the region. On Friday, a cold front associated with a Low over Scotland, eventually clears our region, taking rain away with it. Max. temps. still mild at14c. Saturday begins dry, as by this time we'll be sitting under a small ridge of High Pressure. Max. temps down a little at 11c. This next weather system, coming through on Sunday, will slip away south eastwards across the country and will be the catalyst for allowing colder air, to move south. We're likely to see a spell of rain, across our region, max. temps around 10c. 

The new working week begins, with High Pressure building in for a while before the centre of the High quickly migrates north-eastwards and settles down over Scandinavia. According to Darren, "fronts out west, never really make it into the country", as they run up against this strong block and an easterly wind, emanating from Russia. Perhaps, frost and fog to begin with. Then the easterly wind starts to strengthen and we'll "really notice the difference then". It will be cold enough for some wintry showers, with sleet and snow most likely over hills. Most of the showers, in the east.

Oh dear Darren, "at least it WON'T be mild"!! 

That's my interpretation of how the weather will impact our region, through the week ahead, seen through the eyes of MeteoGroup.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited December 5, 2018 by TomSE12

[Sparky68]

Beautiful morning yesterday , will take those cold icey starts over this wet miserable crap anyday!

[Tom Quintavalle]

I see Dec. 1995 has been quoted as a reference to the projected cold snap next week, on the Model thread. It's a fairly good example, synoptically One important difference though, being the upper air temp. in 1995, was quite a bit colder than what's being forecast, for next week. See Dec. 1995 charts, below:

I was living over at Anerley, S.E.London with my ex. then and remember that day, vividly.  Some members may remember me as TOMSE20, in those days.That day, my girlfriend and myself took our cat over to a Vet's in Beckenham, to be neutered. We left around 9 AM, with a distinct chill in the air. On arriving in Beckenham, could already make out some large cumulus clouds away to the N.E. We dropped our cat off and on the way back to Anerley, a few miles to the west, we experienced a light snow shower. The clouds were starting to grow larger and take on that distinctive whiteish-grey hue, seen before snow. Around lunchtime, we started to experience some a heavier snow shower, which laid down a slight covering. We then had a few more snow showers, each succeeding shower, heavier than the previous. By the time we had to go and collect our cat about an inch of snow had settled. Our Red Tabby (spitting image of the Go-Cat, cat) wasn't at all impressed, being exposed to the bitter air after waking up with the anaesthetic wearing off, poor chap!!

I also remember, Philip Eden (R.I.P), flagging up that cold snap and the likelihood of snow showers for the S.E., during his weather slot, on L.B.C. radio, at the end of the preceding week. He also mentioned the incoming cold snap in his excellent in that week's, Sunday Telegraph. 

Of course, these 850's may well start to come down for next week, as we get closer to the event. At the moment, I think MeteoGroup's assertion of "wintry showers" with sleet and snow on hills, looks about right. But who knows. Hopefully, quite a few of us, may get lucky!!

Although Steve M., has already seen some snow at his elevation, he's no doubt licking his lips at the sight of this morning's charts, along with Scrat and Snowbob, over at Biggin Hill!!

Regards,

Tom.  

 

[LightningLover]

Very dark and dingy this morning in Hastings. Fairly mild too.

[Sparky68]

47 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

I see Dec. 1995 has been quoted as a reference to the projected cold snap next week, on the Model thread. It's a fairly good example, synoptically One important difference though, being the upper air temp. in 1995, was quite a bit colder than what's being forecast, for next week. See Dec. 1995 charts, below:

I was living over at Anerley, S.E.London with my ex. then and remember that day, vividly.  Some members may remember me as TOMSE20, in those days.That day, my girlfriend and myself took our cat over to a Vet's in Beckenham, to be neutered. We left around 9 AM, with a distinct chill in the air. On arriving in Beckenham, could already make out some large cumulus clouds away to the N.E. We dropped our cat off and on the way back to Anerley, a few miles to the west, we experienced a light snow shower. The clouds were starting to grow larger and take on that distinctive whiteish-grey hue, seen before snow. Around lunchtime, we started to experience some a heavier snow shower, which laid down a slight covering. We then had a few more snow showers, each succeeding shower, heavier than the previous. By the time we had to go and collect our cat about an inch of snow had settled. Our Red Tabby (spitting image of the Go-Cat, cat) wasn't at all impressed, being exposed to the bitter air after waking up with the anaesthetic wearing off, poor chap!!

I also remember, Philip Eden (R.I.P), flagging up that cold snap and the likelihood of snow showers for the S.E., during his weather slot, on L.B.C. radio, at the end of the preceding week. He also mentioned the incoming cold snap in his excellent in that week's, Sunday Telegraph. 

Of course, these 850's may well start to come down for next week, as we get closer to the event. At the moment, I think MeteoGroup's assertion of "wintry showers" with sleet and snow on hills, looks about right. But who knows. Hopefully, quite a few of us, may get lucky!!

Although Steve M., has already seen some snow at his elevation, he's no doubt licking his lips at the sight of this morning's charts, along with Scrat and Snowbob, over at Biggin Hill!!

Regards,

Tom.  

 

Hi Tom

 

How far up our region is the cold snap likely to affect ?

[Katrine Basso]

I woke unusually early this morning at 5:20 am and heard the combination of rain and the lovely sound of the dawn chorus which I have not for a long time.  The temperature is 11°C but feels more like 9°C.  When I lived in Scotland the early 90's the winters were very frosty and if they were not frosty there was hail (heavy showers) making everything look white.  The frosts in Scotland were so severe that they made the washing look as though they had been heavily starched and as I was living with my parents and sister in a stone cottage, the inside of the windows were also covered in frost.  I have never experienced a severe frost like that even when I moved to Northumberland in the mid 90's or during the last severely cold winters.

[lassie23]

4 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Awoke very early, to the sound of rain and the tell-tale "swish" sound of isolated traffic on the South Circular, close by. Now downstairs with a cuppa, having just watched a recording of MeteoGroup's, "Weather For The Week Ahead", Darren "at least it will be mild" Bett!!

Darren started his forecast with the following statement, "Easterly winds are set to make a return in the outlook and that's never a good sign". Really, Darren?? No wonder he's such a legend with MOST members on NW. I've highlighted MOST, as I got into trouble in the Summer for suggesting heat and humidity wasn't necessarily a "quote" win-win situation, for all members. I was accused of laying down, "guilt trips". NO, just offering a sense of balance  to some of the over zealous musings of certain individuals, on the Model thread. By the same token, we should all be aware that an onset of any cold, wintry weather, won't necessarily be a "win-win" situation for all members again. It's not all members, "cup of tea". For the great majority, it will be of course, should it occur. Just wanted to offer a sense of balance again, before I continue!!

Wednesday dawns, having seen rain associated with a warm front, clearing through the east of our region. The cold front waiting in the "wings", to our west. The rain, associated with this cold front should clear the region, during the afternoon. Max. temps. for the London area around, a  mild 13c today. Another mild day on Thursday, around 14c, with a spell of rain crossing the region. On Friday, a cold front associated with a Low over Scotland, eventually clears our region, taking rain away with it. Max. temps. still mild at14c. Saturday begins dry, as by this time we'll be sitting under a small ridge of High Pressure. Max. temps down a little at 11c. This next weather system, coming through on Sunday, will slip away south eastwards across the country and will be the catalyst for allowing colder air, to move south. We're likely to see a spell of rain, across our region, max. temps around 10c. 

The new working week begins, with High Pressure building in for a while before the centre of the High quickly migrates north-eastwards and settles down over Scandinavia. According to Darren, "fronts out west, never really make it into the country", as they run up against this strong block and an easterly wind, emanating from Russia. Perhaps, frost and fog to begin with. Then the easterly wind starts to strengthen and we'll "really notice the difference then". It will be cold enough for some wintry showers, with sleet and snow most likely over hills. Most of the showers, in the east.

Oh dear Darren, "at least it WON'T be mild"!! 

That's my interpretation of how the weather will impact our region, through the week ahead, seen through the eyes of MeteoGroup.

Regards,

Tom.  

It's winter Darren it's supposed to get cold, so SW winds and flooding is a good sign, he is a bit of a plonker, isn't he? Well according to the MOD thread it looks like it will definitely snow next week maybe

[Dami]

Played the 'get bubs into school before it rains' game this morning and won. However, I got soaked again coming home. very mild out.  

After a category one strop, I got all 5 bags and 6 boxes of Christmas decorations out of the loft . Bubs dressed the tree and sorted out her christmas soft toys. I still have 2 bags and 5 boxes to sort. ho hum. House looks like a bomb has gone off. 

Gimme a snow shower. Not feeling very festive atm even with seeing Santa yesterday. 

[Sparky68]

A few good heavy frosts would do me at the moment , kill the bugs off!

[Tom Quintavalle]

9 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

A few good heavy frosts would do me at the moment , kill the bugs off!

Hi Sparky,

Finally got the time to answer your question, from earlier. If MeteoGroup and the ECM, think the METO are coming on board now too, have called this cold snap correctly, then the whole of our region will be affected. Although, I'm sure you don't have much elevation at your location, you are of course a long way from the coast. Any showers that make it over to you, could well be wintry.

Do I spy an Arsenal cannon firing at a Spurs cockerel, in your avatar photo? Are you a Gooner, like my son and daughter?  If so, congratulations on your North London Derby win on Sunday!! Thoroughly deserved, if I may say so. Felt unwell on Sunday afternoon, so went and laid down, to listen to it. But after such a bright start, felt I was jinxing the Gunners and turned off ay half-time. Pleasantly surprised when I turned back on with ten minutes to go, to find Arsenal 4-2 ahead. 

Just got one more thing to say but won't shout too loud, in case that chap in Suffolk hears me!! COYG,(Come on you Gunners.) 

Regards,

Tom.  

[Sparky68]

Yes Tom , the kerb outside my house is probably the largest elevation change for quite a way but , we do sometimes catch a couple of the streamers. Yes you are correct , the Mighty Arsenal shooting down the Scum again 

[Allezwasps.]

29 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Yes Tom , the kerb outside my house is probably the largest elevation change for quite a way but , we do sometimes catch a couple of the streamers. Yes you are correct , the Mighty Arsenal shooting down the Scum again 

Mighty ?

 

[stainesbloke]

Very dreary here today, overcast and gloomy with plentiful drizzle and spells of rain. Hopefully some clearer, colder weather to come, soon. Snow showers would be an added bonus, though would rather have any proper snowfall after Christmas.

[Wimbledon88]

12.2c in a damp dreary south west London. Unlikely to improve either in the short term. 

[lassie23]

judging from the latest model output, the october fog index moves into a 4 -0 lead

Edited December 6, 2018 by lassie23

[Wimbledon88]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

judging from the latest model output, the october fog index moves into a 4 -0 lead

Yes indeed. Rain and wind look like the form horse. 

I had a look in the cold mad thread earlier. It was like a war zone in there.  

Gone tits up..... again.  

 

 

[lassie23]

30 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Yes indeed. Rain and wind look like the form horse. 

I had a look in the cold mad thread earlier. It was like a war zone in there.  

Gone tits up..... again.  

 

 

Yet you get the same posters who are in denial picking cold charts that will never happen and trying to convince everyone else that they know best