SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

[Wimbledon88]

4 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Had the MO forecasters been on the wine at lunch when they wrote Friday’s forecast?

Yes, just seen their video forecast. Quite different from the bbc/Meto group one. Met forecasting a bit of a washout. 

Who will be right I wonder? 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Up early to share breakfast with my wife, before she started her 12 hour shift. Poor Colette is struggling with her own health issues at the moment but she's battling on to "bring home the bacon", as I am unable to do now!!

Have just digested the latest musings from MeteoGroup, in their early morning W.F.T.W.A forecast, Darren Bett again on duty. 

He started by stating that they now have growing confidence, in the longer range forecast. Also, there's about to be a significant change in weather type. A strong "Jet" propagating across the Atlantic will carry some milder air, towards us. 

Remaining quite cloudy today, with an easterly breeze but certainly feeling milder than yesterday, temps. back up to 10c. Should be frost free overnight, as cloud and some rain, mainly south of the M4, enters our region. Max. temps again around 10c . Rain should then move away southwards on Sunday, as high pressure builds down from the north, dragging down slightly colder air. Max. temps down a notch, at 9c. Still quite a cold feel on Monday, with that light easterly drift, max. temps around 9c again. Perhaps a bit of frost around on Monday night, if cloud breaks. Tuesday still dry, with a little sunshine and max. temps around 8c, after a coldish start. But changes are afoot, in the west.

We will then start to see low pressure have more of an influence, on our weather. Fronts and rain  will track across our area, from the west, by mid-week. Another are of low pressure then moves up from the S.W, dragging more rain with it. Then a brief ridge of high pressure settles things down, temporarily. Then another low moves towards us, from the Atlantic, with attendant rain. 

He then finished by stating that it will become more unsettled and with a flow from the S/S.W, it will be milder, than of late and stressed that it won't feel that mild.(Mind you it is Darren Bett, we're talking about!! Looked pretty mild, to me.) Some brief incursions of colder air at night. With the winds coming in from the S./S.W, remaining mild. With the models now converging, MeteoGroup have more confidence in this outcome. 

And that's pretty much how the weather is looking for us, according to MeteoGroup, in the extended outlook.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

As a footnote to my post about "Snow Streamers", of a few days ago, that sometimes affect southern portions of our region(mainly Kent). I would like to post up some archive charts, showing the synoptic pattern, that led to these events.

I'll start with the "Thames Streamer" (ENE flow.)

25th DEC. 1970

One of the few true White Xmases, I've witnessed!! I can remember listening to the Shipping Forecast at about 12.30, Xmas morning, as huge "saucer"-sized flakes fluttered down in front of my parents kitchen window, highlighted by light from a lamppost, at the foot of our garden. Two huge cracks of thunder accompanied the snow. I didn't realise it, at the time but I was experiencing a Thames Streamer, in all it's glory. More snow showers during the day gave an Xmas Day covering of around 3 to 4 inches, at my home in Bromley (N.W.Kent/S.E.London border.) A very Festive looking Xmas.

2nd FEB.2009

Certainly the most potent "Thames Streamer", I've witnessed. If memory serves, very well forecast by the Meto. They had the tell-tale "convergence" trough, stretched along the Thames Corridor, on the Fax Charts, a few days before the event. Snow showers began on the Sunday evening and lasted well into Monday morning. The snow showers at their heaviest were accompanied by a few, huge cracks of thunder. Gave around 4 to 5 inches of snow here in Lee, an appreciable fall for this location.

Now for the East Kent Streamer (N/NNE flow)

7th FEB.1983

I can remember Philip Eden(R.I.P.) mentioning the copious amounts of snow that had fallen in E.Kent from this event, on his weather slot on L.B.C. radio. He particularly mentioned a place called, Capel-le-Ferne, which lies high on a clifftop,over looking the English Channel between Folkestone and Dover. Promptly booked the day off work and went looking for the "white gold". Unbelievable scenes at Capel, with snowdrifts up to the eaves of the many bungalows around the village. Speaking to some of the locals, the snow showers were virtually continuous for 36 hours with lots of lightning/thunder. In fact, many properties were struck by lightning along that part of the East Kent coast. Capel quickly became my favourite "snow-chasing" location, in this kind of synoptic set-up.

No examples come to mind of the Mid-Kent to East Sussex "Snow Streamer" (NE flow). But I'm sure those of you that live in that "landing zone", have witnessed many such events. Would love to hear of members experiences with some accompanying archive charts, please.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Wimbledon88]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

As a footnote to my post about "Snow Streamers", of a few days ago, that sometimes affect southern portions of our region(mainly Kent). I would like to post up some archive charts, showing the synoptic pattern, that led to these events.

I'll start with the "Thames Streamer" (ENE flow.)

25th DEC. 1970

One of the few true White Xmases, I've witnessed!! I can remember listening to the Shipping Forecast at about 12.30, Xmas morning, as huge "saucer"-sized flakes fluttered down in front of my parents kitchen window, highlighted by light from a lamppost, at the foot of our garden. Two huge cracks of thunder accompanied the snow. I didn't realise it, at the time but I was experiencing a Thames Streamer, in all it's glory. More snow showers during the day gave an Xmas Day covering of around 3 to 4 inches, at my home in Bromley (N.W.Kent/S.E.London border.) A very Festive looking Xmas.

2nd FEB.2009

Certainly the most potent "Thames Streamer", I've witnessed. If memory serves, very well forecast by the Meto. They had the tell-tale "convergence" trough, stretched along the Thames Corridor, on the Fax Charts, a few days before the event. Snow showers began on the Sunday evening and lasted well into Monday morning. The snow showers at their heaviest were accompanied by a few, huge cracks of thunder. Gave around 4 to 5 inches of snow here in Lee, an appreciable fall for this location.

Now for the East Kent Streamer (N/NNE flow)

7th FEB.1983

I can remember Philip Eden(R.I.P.) mentioning the copious amounts of snow that had fallen in E.Kent from this event, on his weather slot on L.B.C. radio. He particularly mentioned a place called, Capel-le-Ferne, which lies high on a clifftop,over looking the English Channel between Folkestone and Dover. Promptly booked the day off work and went looking for the "white gold". Unbelievable scenes at Capel, with snowdrifts up to the eaves of the many bungalows around the village. Speaking to some of the locals, the snow showers were virtually continuous for 36 hours with lots of lightning/thunder. In fact, many properties were struck by lightning along that part of the East Kent coast. Capel quickly became my favourite "snow-chasing" location, in this kind of synoptic set-up.

No examples come to mind of the Mid-Kent to East Sussex "Snow Streamer" (NE flow). But I'm sure those of you that live in that "landing zone", have witnessed many such events. Would love to hear of members experiences with some accompanying archive charts, please.

Regards,

Tom.  

Great post as ever Tom. Nice one.  

[yamkin]

 

 

[Southender]

Is it time to come out of hibernation yet?

Southender signing in for another winter of snow chasing...

How we all doing?
 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Thanks for those kind comments, W88.

Just want to comment on a couple of memorable snow events for our region. The upper air temps (850's), were so low that "Streamers" merged into a great Ocean of snow, that affected all of our region, eventually.

JAN.1987

Probably the most enjoyable snowfall event, I've experienced. And certainly some of the coldest upper air temperatures, that I've seen over our region. With a temperature differential of more than 25c, the atmosphere became very conducive to great swathes of snow, tracking east over our region. Villages and towns in the east of our region, became cut off. Transport links were very badly affected. Parts of the Bromley area received in the region of 9 to 10 inches of level snow. Depths were much greater further East, with huge drifts. The first chart is still my "screensaver", to this day.

FEB.1991

Again, some very cold upper air, less than -16c, cause a huge swathe of snow for our region. It's known as the infamous, "Wrong type of snow" event. The South-East region of British Rail had just purchased a new fleet of trains. The very low temps meant that the snow was very fine and powdery. Driven on by very strong Easterly winds, the very fine snow entered the engines of this new fleet of trains and "blew", the electrics. See link to full explanation, below:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/9891089/From-the-archive-British-Rail-blames-wrong-type-of-snow-for-delays.html

Now a pet "gripe" from me. I often read on the Model thread, members use the term, "Channel Low". They seem to give any depression that wonders into the body of water, adjacent to our southern coastline, that "handle", irrespective of the time of year. Since I've been interested in Meteorology, in my understanding, the term is used when an area of low pressure tries to make inroads into the UK, with very mild air on its southern flankbut drawing in bitter air from the E/N.E, on its northern flank. To paraphrase Steve Murr, these phenomenon, are as "rare as hen's teeth"(apologies Steve!!). I havn't experienced that many in my lifetime but far and away the Daddy of them all occurred at the end of Dec.1978. See charts below:

30th/31st DEC.1978.

As you can see from these charts, we were so close to receiving just rain but fortunately, stayed on the cold side of the low!! This event was the best/(worst) combination of snow and wind, I've ever witnessed. Got back home to Bromley, after a night out with colleagues in East Dulwich, S.E.London. Our front garden was unrecognisable, so severe was the drifting of the snow. I couldn't make out the pathway to our front door and that wasn't due to alcohol consumption!! 

The following day, New Years Eve was bright and sunny but the very strong easterly wind continued. It was one of the only times I'd seen snow ploughs, on the main road, a little way from our front garden. They were battling in vain to keep the road open, as the strong wind blew huge billows of snow off of rooves and cars, completely covering our main road, time after time. 

So, "Channel Low" is an oft, misused term!! I doubt very much if I will ever see such a fine example, again. Thanks for the trip down "memory lane".

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

[Dami]

I can remember as a child travelling to Kent over Christmas and seeing snow on the ground, the first time I had ever seen it at that time of year and last until 2010 when there still snow in our garden on Christmas day. Christmas on the coast was either frosty but sunny or mild and wet.  I would happily have a December like last year though. 

Today was like yesterday, just not as cold and we haven't had any rain. 

 

 

[Methuselah]

I'm glad that yesterday's gloom-laden muck has passed; BT Openzone doesn't handle such conditions at all well...

[yamkin]

 

 

[Laurence Hill]

You got a whiteout Yamkin?

sorry, your message eventually came through!

Edited November 23, 2018 by Sharpedge

[yamkin]

4 hours ago, Sharpedge said:

You got a whiteout Yamkin?

sorry, your message eventually came through!

A little here and there, but nothing to write home about............At least it snowed for a while!!

[yamkin]

 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Up early again to have breakfast with my wife before she set off for work. Poor Colette's taken on another shift today, to help keep the wolf from the door and won't return home until 7.30 PM. Have told her not to get talked into working tomorrow, as she's struggling with her own health issues at the moment

Just digested another early morning recording of MeteoGroup's, W.F.T.W.A, yet again with Darren Bett, our own "bete noire"", bless him!! He's certainly putting in a shift this week!!(Yes, I know it's recorded.)

Started with, "This cold weather will have lasted about a week" but it's about to change. His "propagating" Jet Stream heading our way to turn the weather unsettled but milder. Then teased us with, "Will this unsettled weather last into the beginning of December?" 

Fairly chilly start (according to D.B.) today, with still that light easterly drift. Mainly cloudy  with a few showers for southern portions of our region. Max.temps in the London area, around 9c. Tonight remaining cloudy, so little chance of frost. Still some showers in the south and a change to recent forecasts, with some more organised rain arriving from the south later. Min. temps around 6c, for the London area. Sunday looking wetter than was originally thought, with some persistent rain, for our "neck of the woods". Max.temps for the London area, again around 9c.

High Pressue to our north, starting to extend down over the U.K, in the early part of the new week. Bit more of an easterly breeze on Monday, so likely to feel on the chilly side. Dry by this time, if pretty cloudy with temps. maxing out at around 8c. Winds falling light on Monday night and if cloud breaks, likely to be some frost around. Tuesday likely to be "transition" day. High Pressure relaxes its grip, as fronts move in from the west. Perhaps an early frost for us and still feeling on the chilly side, at around 8c. Rain and mild S.W. winds extend over our area, as we move into Wednesday. Max. temps back up to a mild, 12c. Rain clearing during Weds, with perhaps a few residual showers. 

For the rest of the week, lows will be moving to the N.W. of the U.K and their attendant fronts will sweep eastwards, across our region, bringing bands of rain, as they do so. Perhaps, Tropical Maritime air starting to dominate over the U.K. 

Likely to stay mild and unsettled, as we head into December, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, perhaps accompanied by strong winds.

And that's pretty much how the weather is looking for us, according to MeteoGroup, in the extended outlook.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Edited November 24, 2018 by TomSE12

[LightningLover]

If that ‘channel low’ didn’t occur, do you think those extremely cold uppers would have made inroads?

[Dami]

crikey. rinse and repeat day. Dull, cool a bit of rain.

And awaiting man with van no 3. Christmas presents.

Can't beat a bit of Disney at Chrimbo.

Edited November 24, 2018 by Dami

[Wimbledon88]

Perfect winter's day for the allotment. Digging out some weeds with mug of hot tea listening to the footy on the radio. Some rain about too. 

Looks like the Atlantic kicking into gear from Tuesday for several weeks. Plenty of wind and rain. 

All the talk of a bitter cold easterly spell of weather gone for a burton. Only November still, plenty of time yet. 

 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

While I was putting together that post about "Snow Streamers" that affect southern portions of our region, it got me thinking as to where I first heard that term. In the depths of my memory, I seem to remember Francis Wilson using the phrase on BBC Breakfast, one morning. A very light snow shower train was tracking into the London area and I'm show he used the term, "streamer"

I really rated Francis, as  Forecaster/Presenter For those of you to young to remember him, Francis started as a Weatherman on Thames TV, then joined BBC Breakfast Time and finally became head of Sky News' Weather Dept. He had a "camp", chatty style of presentation and I think he wasn't taken that seriously. A very solid forecaster though and certainly knew his subject. 

I was thinking who are my favourite forecasters, down the year. I've put together this list of 5:

1, Rob McElwee.2. Michael Fish. 3.Jack Scott. 4. Francis Wilson. 5.Helen Willette.

1. A bit of legend on Netweather and seemingly a "coldie". Who can forget his "And then there's Monday" forecast, during the 2010 Winter. Eyebrows twitching and a glint in his eye!!

2. Our own Mr.Fish!! A very solid forecaster and much maligned for that "Hurricane" forecast, which as we know, he was quite right about. I prefer to remember Michael fondly for a forecast, when he had trouble with the metallic letters, spelling Fog. The F, kept falling off the chart.  At the end of the forecast Michael apologised and innocently said, "Sorry about the F in FOG!! I'm sure a lot of drivers are often weary about the bleep bleep FOG!!  Think it was Michael but could have been, Ian McCaskill??

3. Have to mention one of the old guard. Being 63, I go back a long way and remember J.S., Bert Foord, Bernard Davey  Graham Parker, Bill Giles, etc and of course the first female forecaster, that the Met Office used, Barbara Edwards. Barbara made her first appearance in, Jan 1974. Ten or so years later, Bobby Charlton's daughter Suzanne, started to make a name for herself, as a BBC Forecaster.

4. As I stated above, really rated Francis Wilson. He showed a real passion for his subject and had a real "chatty" style of presentation, with talk of "fluffy bits", etc.

5. I must include one of the ladies here and IMO, Helen Willetts is the finest. Apologies to our own Jo Farrow!! 

I'd like to mention a few others outside of my list. John Kettley, I could've quite easily included. In my local news area, always found that Peter Cockcroft, spoke a lot of sense. Of the younger brigade, Tomasz Hackensacker (Sorry Tom but your forecasts are sometimes a bit Marx Brotherish!!) but I must admit Mr. Schafernaker, is growing on me.  Daniel Corbett, a latter day Francis Wilson ("If you're thinking of taking Granny for a walk in the park, she'll need an extra jumper today"!!) and his ("today's finishing numbers will be".), was always good for a laugh!! Oh Mr.Corbett, half expected Sooty and Sweep to turn up on one of his forecasts!! Must give a mention to Laura Tobin, who I think is the finest forecaster, outside of the BBC. My favourite forecaster on the radio, was Phillip Eden (R.I.P). Always enjoyed his weather slots on London's L.B.C and Radio 5. I have a folder of cut-outs, from his weather column, in the Sunday Telegraph, always worth a read. 

The most annoying weather presenter I've ever seen must be the young lady that used to present the weather after Channel 5 News. All blonde hair and teeth Everything that fell from the sky, was a few showers!! She obviously hadn't heard of frontal rain. Obviously chosen by Channel 5 for other "assets", aside from Meteorological knowledge!! I see Lara is now presenting a programme called "Click", on News 24. Apologies to Ms. Lewington.

Would love to hear from other S.E.Region members of your favourite Weather Forecasters.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2018 by TomSE12

[Laurence Hill]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

While I was putting together that post about "Snow Streamers" that affect southern portions of our region, it got me thinking as to where I first heard that term. In the depths of my memory, I seem to remember Francis Wilson using the phrase on BBC Breakfast, one morning. A very light snow shower train was tracking into the London area and I'm show he used the term, "streamer"

I really rated Francis, as  Forecaster/Presenter For those of you to young to remember him, Francis started as a Weatherman on Thames TV, then joined BBC Breakfast Time and finally became head of Sky News' Weather Dept. He had a "camp", chatty style of presentation and I think he wasn't taken that seriously. A very solid forecaster though and certainly knew his subject. 

I was thinking who are my favourite forecasters, down the year. I've put together this list of 5:

1, Rob McElwee.2. Michael Fish. 3.Jack Scott. 4. Francis Wilson. 5.Helen Willette.

1. A bit of legend on Netweather and seemingly a "coldie". Who can forget his "And then there's Monday" forecast, during the 2010 Winter. Eyebrows twitching and a glint in his eye!!

2. Our own Mr.Fish!! A very solid forecaster and much maligned for that "Hurricane" forecast, which as we know, he was quite right about. I prefer to remember Michael fondly for a forecast, when he had trouble with the metallic letters, spelling Fog. The F, kept falling off the chart.  At the end of the forecast Michael apologised and innocently said, "Sorry about the F in FOG!! I'm sure a lot of drivers are often weary about the bleep bleep FOG!!  Think it was Michael but could have been, Ian McCaskill??

3. Have to mention one of the old guard. Being 63, I go back a long way and remember J.S., Bert Foord, Bernard Davey  Graham Parker, Bill Giles, etc and of course the first female forecaster, that the Met Office used, Barbara Edwards. Barbara made her first appearance in, Jan 1974. Ten or so years later, Bobby Charlton's daughter Suzanne, started to make a name for herself, as a BBC Forecaster.

4. As I stated above, really rated Francis Wilson. He showed a real passion for his subject and had a real "chatty" style of presentation, with talk of "fluffy bits", etc.

5. I must include one of the ladies here and IMO, Helen Willetts is the finest. Apologies to our own Jo Farrow!! 

I'd like to mention a few others outside of my list. John Kettley, I could've quite easily included. In my local news area, always found that Peter Cockcroft, spoke a lot of sense. Of the younger brigade, Tomasz Hackensacker (Sorry Tom but your forecasts are sometimes a bit Marx Brotherish!!) but I must admit Mr. Schafernaker, is growing on me.  Daniel Corbett, a latter day Francis Wilson ("If you're thinking of taking Granny for a walk in the park, she'll need an extra jumper today"!!) and his ("today's finishing numbers will be".), was always good for a laugh!! Oh Mr.Corbett, half expected Sooty and Sweep to turn up on one of his forecasts!! Must give a mention to Laura Tobin, who I think is the finest forecaster, outside of the BBC. My favourite forecaster on the radio, was Phillip Eden (R.I.P). Always enjoyed his weather slots on London's L.B.C and Radio 5. I have a folder of cut-outs, from his weather column, in the Sunday Telegraph, always worth a read. 

The most annoying weather presenter I've ever seen must be the young lady that used to present the weather after Channel 5 News. All blonde hair and teeth Everything that fell from the sky, was a few showers!! She obviously hadn't heard of frontal rain. Obviously chosen by Channel 5 for other "assets", aside from Meteorological knowledge!! I see Lara is now presenting a programme called "Click", on News 24. Apologies to Ms. Lewington.

Would love to hear from other S.E.Region members of your favourite Weather Forecasters.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good subject, Francis Wilson was very good, unfortunately I don’t think he was given enough airtime on Sky, always seemed to be cut off mid flow.  That’s always been the problem, other than BBC, the other TV channel wx forecasts seem to concentrate more on the presenters (mainly female) and the wx seems to be an afterthought.

[bluebell]

2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Would love to hear from other S.E.Region members of your favourite Weather Forecasters.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

I am a big Thomaz Schafenacker fan, a bit of a maverick; there was the occasion when he was caught on camera doing a rude finger gesture to a news reader who made a joke about him that he didn’t appreciate, and then when he had to stop reading the weather on Radio 4 Today programme as he was about to vomit. Rumour had it that he was totally hung over from the staff Christmas party the night before, but the official line was that he’d got a nasty bug!  

I was born in 1977 so just about old enough to remember the stick on weather symbols, I recall Ian Mckaskell, having terrible trouble with a sunshine that kept slipping from Aberdeen down the Home Counties, I think he handled it well and cracked a joke to get through it. 

More recent favourites include Nick Miller who progressed up from regional BBC southeast to national weather forecast. 

Apologies for spelling names wrong! 

[Lauren]

The rain that has been forecast all day is yet to show.

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, Lauren said:

The rain that has been forecast all day is yet to show.

Hi Lauren,

Yes a big fail from MeteoGroup, they were forecasting a pretty wet day over our region.

Regards,

Tom. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

 

Hi bluebell,

Yes Thomasz, is certainly a bit of a maverick but he's certainly grown on me. At least he has a bit of personality. Ah, middle fingergate!! He's always "joshing" with Simon McCoy, on News 24. I remember another forecast "faux pas" he made. He pointed at the West of Scotland and whether he'd forgotten what the area was called, made a comment suggesting that the area wasn't important anyway. I think he got into serious trouble for that with the Met Office. He was demoted downstairs to the Meto's version of Room 101 and that was before the middle finger, incident. 

Nick Miller seems to be another competent Forecaster, along with Chris Fawkes. Of the female Forecasters, also like Louise Lear and I see Susan Powell is back on our screens. Also like Isobel Lang. I see a lot of Forecasters seem to graduate from Reading University. It certainly seems to be the Weather career Uni. More information about TV Forecasters, here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:BBC_weather_forecasters

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited November 24, 2018 by TomSE12

[Reefseeker]

The rain reserved itself for the west country it seems, as the drive across Salisbury Plain to my mother in Midsomer Norton/Radstock, just outside of Bath, was pretty persistently wet with plentiful puddles and spray over the roads. The temperature remained a resolute 6 degrees against steely skies and a bit of a lazy breeze in very damp conditions that made me appreciate the hat I bought in Wells market. A beautiful poppy display remained in the Bishops Palace gardens.

Edited November 24, 2018 by Reefseeker

[Donna3397]

Today has been pretty warm (I think) it’s been dull and drizzling on and off most of the day till this evening. 

Ive been having a peep at the cold thread and trying hard to learn from the charts and people’s comments, I have to say I have a feeling nobody really has an idea about when or if the cold will arrive(please let me know if I have this wrong) I enjoy the mod threads because of Everyone’s comments and how much I learn from the different charts.