Met office report

[Bobafet]

Hopefully this is the right place, interesting report regarding climate on the BBC news website.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46064266

[tablet]

what the BBC have done in the above article is commonly known as a " Chop-job " , taking sections of the report for dramatic effect , but leaving out any section that are less certain

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/about/state-of-climate

the graphs below are from the Met office's own website

the BBC state the hottest days are getting hotter

it was hot this year ,but it was exceptional ,  the graph shows that the last 10 years generally are no where near 1975,1976,1990,1995,2003 and 2006

 their graphs also show that the number of " Hot " days is declining

it also shows that droughts are declining

and the very strange statement about " Tropical nights "  , nights above 20 degrees , if you look at the Met office map

I think it's very likely that they are recording the urban heat island effect , the BBC also don't report sections that talk about dry spells , the 1960's to the 1990's is known to scientists as a " flood poor period "

the quote " the longest dry spell of the year for the UK is typically of the order of 20 days , ranging from approximately 17 in the north of Scotland to 24-25 in East England . there is some evidence of a decline of 13 per cent in dry spell duration since the 1980's . however it should be acknowledged that for all the precipitation indices the period 1961 to present is relatively short for diagnosing variability . trends in the UK precipitation are not well represented by a linear trend . the most recent decade has recorded an average longest dry spell for the UK of 18 days compared to the 1981-2010 average of 19.9 days and 20.5 days for the 1961-1990 . in 2017 western areas had shorter dry spells than average , for example 12.7 days for Wales compared to a 1981-2010 average of 19.3 , in contrast some parts of south England coast and central belt of Scotland were above average "

I would be careful what I believed from the BBC now their policy has changed towards climate reporting , they can now say anything they like without offering a balanced viewpoint

the BBC's recent article on sea level rise is another gem , using Skipsea  in North Yorkshire as an example ,,, unfortunately , costal erosion is not sea level rise , so only the hard of thinking would believe that whopper  

[Methuselah]

How convenient that not one of those graphs shows 2018? And what if they are recording the urban heat-island effect? There's no reason why major conurbations like London should be warming whilst everywhere else (allegedly) isn't...

Your penchant for seeing imaginary (usually political) conspiracies, in anything you don't want to hear, is becoming rather tedious, though.

[Weather-history]

35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

How convenient that not one of those graphs shows 2018?

The report itself only goes up to 2017. It covers 2008-2017.

 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The report itself only goes up to 2017. It covers 2008-2017.

Of course...So why bother pointing-out that 2018 has so far been so exceptional? Anyway, the report says what it says; with or without the need to invoke conspiracies and hidden agendas?

[Weather-history]

I posted a thread on extremes from 2006-15 and and looked at how many months were in the top 10.

 

[Weather-history]

6 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Of course...So why bother pointing-out that 2018 has so far been so exceptional? Anyway, the report says what it says; with or without the need to invoke conspiracies and hidden agendas?

I would be interested to see what the 10 year period previous (1998-2007) was and compare that against those 1961-90 norms because I get the feeling that was actually warmer overall than (2008-17). 

[Jo Farrow]

On 02/11/2018 at 09:02, Bobafet said:

Hopefully this is the right place, interesting report regarding climate on the BBC news website.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46064266

This is the latest part of the report, a supplement to the existing state of the UK climate https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/uk-climate/state-of-the-uk-climate/soc_supplement-002.pdf 

 

Edited November 3, 2018 by Jo Farrow
making hyperlink

[Jo Farrow]

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9223-met-office-climate-extremes-higher-temperatures-torrential-rain-and-tropical-nights 

Edited November 3, 2018 by Jo Farrow
making hyperlink

[tablet]

8 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Of course...So why bother pointing-out that 2018 has so far been so exceptional? Anyway, the report says what it says; with or without the need to invoke conspiracies and hidden agendas?

the report in question doesn't cover 2018 ,,,,, did you not bother reading it , or are you just having a go again ?

 

[tablet]

just in case people thought I was joking about the BBC changing their stance on climate reporting ( in case it is some kind of fake conspiracy.

please just try a search online

Edited November 4, 2018 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Methuselah]

Childish personal insults will get you precisely nowhere, tablet...

[jethro]

Personally speaking, I wish the METO wouldn't make these reports public, and I particularly wish the media didn't report them. I've no problem with them analysing what's happened in the past tense, but as soon as that info gets extrapolated into 'what we can expect in the future' I lose the will to live. The general population just read the headlines and for me, as a gardener, it causes endless headaches. My job is still dealing with the headlines of 'we're going to have Mediterranean summers' 'plant drought resistant plants' nonsense that was issued by the METO in one of these reports. Still to this day explaining to clients why Olive trees and Lavender hedges aren't the best idea if you live in the soggy South West, and still replacing dead planting schemes that they insisted on having, based on these METO reports.

A little bit of knowledge rarely pays off, I wish these reports were limited to academic circles. 

[Devonian]

5 minutes ago, jethro said:

Personally speaking, I wish the METO wouldn't make these reports public, and I particularly wish the media didn't report them. I've no problem with them analysing what's happened in the past tense, but as soon as that info gets extrapolated into 'what we can expect in the future' I lose the will to live. The general population just read the headlines and for me, as a gardener, it causes endless headaches. My job is still dealing with the headlines of 'we're going to have Mediterranean summers' 'plant drought resistant plants' nonsense that was issued by the METO in one of these reports. Still to this day explaining to clients why Olive trees and Lavender hedges aren't the best idea if you live in the soggy South West, and still replacing dead planting schemes that they insisted on having, based on these METO reports.

A little bit of knowledge rarely pays off, I wish these reports were limited to academic circles. 

Interesting view.

If I were to go out into our field (remember, I live on extra soggy east Dartmoor) and dig a hole I am confident that about two feet down I will find dust - it was like that two weeks ago and we've had diddly squat rain since then.

Around here this year has, in some respects, been Mediterranean.

[jethro]

4 minutes ago, Devonian said:

Interesting view.

If I were to go out into our field (remember, I live on extra soggy east Dartmoor) and dig a hole I am confident that about two feet down I will find dust - it was like that two weeks ago and we've had diddly squat rain since then.

Around here this year has, in some respects, been Mediterranean.

Behave. One extreme year, does not a climate make. If we took 'the coldest winter in a 100 years' we had a few years ago and applied your theory, we'd be looking at perma frost by now.

[Devonian]

3 minutes ago, jethro said:

Behave. One extreme year, does not a climate make. If we took 'the coldest winter in a 100 years' we had a few years ago and applied your theory, we'd be looking at perma frost by now.

Thank you but I did say 'this year' for a reason...

I made no claim about climate - actually I'd argue you did so in your post when you dismissed what the Met O say as 'nonsense' and generally dismissed the idea the climate is changing. Lets be open minded

 

[jethro]

1 minute ago, Devonian said:

Thank you but I did say 'this year' for a reason...

I made no claim about climate - actually I'd argue you did so in your post when you dismissed what the Met O say as 'nonsense' and generally dismissed the idea the climate is changing. Lets be open minded

 

Thanks for so quickly and succinctly reminding me why I can't be bothered with this part of the forum anymore. Express an opinion (stated as a personal opinion) and there's always someone here ready to leap on it, twist it and put their own spin on it and then argue just for the sake of arguing. I'm never entirely sure whether it's an accidental way of responding, or whether it's a determined effort to keep the circle of views in this area as a tiny group, excluding and deterring anyone else who ventures in. Either way, thank you for saving me from wasting my time and reminding me life really is too short.

[Devonian]

13 minutes ago, jethro said:

Thanks for so quickly and succinctly reminding me why I can't be bothered with this part of the forum anymore. Express an opinion (stated as a personal opinion) and there's always someone here ready to leap on it, twist it and put their own spin on it and then argue just for the sake of arguing. I'm never entirely sure whether it's an accidental way of responding, or whether it's a determined effort to keep the circle of views in this area as a tiny group, excluding and deterring anyone else who ventures in. Either way, thank you for saving me from wasting my time and reminding me life really is too short.

 I was behaving I simply gave may view! For that I get the above...

 

Edited November 4, 2018 by Devonian

[Methuselah]

53 minutes ago, jethro said:

Personally speaking, I wish the METO wouldn't make these reports public, and I particularly wish the media didn't report them. I've no problem with them analysing what's happened in the past tense, but as soon as that info gets extrapolated into 'what we can expect in the future' I lose the will to live. The general population just read the headlines and for me, as a gardener, it causes endless headaches. My job is still dealing with the headlines of 'we're going to have Mediterranean summers' 'plant drought resistant plants' nonsense that was issued by the METO in one of these reports. Still to this day explaining to clients why Olive trees and Lavender hedges aren't the best idea if you live in the soggy South West, and still replacing dead planting schemes that they insisted on having, based on these METO reports.

A little bit of knowledge rarely pays off, I wish these reports were limited to academic circles. 

I agree with you, Jethro...

The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that the report itself doesn't really say anything, anyway - it has all the hallmarks of a gratuitous 'look what I've done' exercise?

One can choose any two decades and compare them. But, so what? We can do that already...

 

[JeffC]

Strikes me. Someone at the Met Office was late with their year 12 assignment and was given a task to produce this report instead of writing "I must do my homework on time" 1000 times. Then somebody accidentally pressed "publish"... 

Skim read it and as has been observed its a copy and paste and edit job which justifies itself only insofar as it brings together various other reports....more of a report on a lit search? 

That's not to denigrate anyone at MetO, for whom I have high regard, it just seems a bit PhD rather than real information? 

Edited November 4, 2018 by JeffC
Qualification

[Devonian]

14 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Strikes me. Someone at the Met Office was late with their year 12 assignment and was given a task to produce this report instead of writing "I must do my homework on time" 1000 times. Then somebody accidentally pressed "publish"... 

Skim read it and as has been observed its a copy and paste and edit job which justifies itself only insofar as it brings together various other reports....more of a report on a lit search? 

That's not to denigrate anyone at MetO, for whom I have high regard, it just seems a bit PhD rather than real information? 

Well, if I were to say to you your work was a 'year 12 assignment' and that you 'must do your homework on time' and it was a 'copy and paste job' I don't think it would be seen by you as a compliment?

Would it?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm curious about this whole Mediterranean summer thing, I've heard it a few times.

Is it another case of a projection being made for later this century, but people call it false because it isn't happening now? Like the usual "we should all be under water by now, according to the experts" or similar with ice free Arctic projections.

[parrotingfantasist]

15 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I'm curious about this whole Mediterranean summer thing, I've heard it a few times.

Is it another case of a projection being made for later this century, but people call it false because it isn't happening now? Like the usual "we should all be under water by now, according to the experts" or similar with ice free Arctic projections.

And usually the experts go by the names of "Al Gore" and the Tabloid Media! 

[JeffC]

2 hours ago, Devonian said:

Well, if I were to say to you your work was a 'year 12 assignment' and that you 'must do your homework on time' and it was a 'copy and paste job' I don't think it would be seen by you as a compliment?

Would it?

Your point being? 

I expressed an opinion that wasn't overly dissimilar to others.. 

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, jethro said:

Personally speaking, I wish the METO wouldn't make these reports public, and I particularly wish the media didn't report them. I've no problem with them analysing what's happened in the past tense, but as soon as that info gets extrapolated into 'what we can expect in the future' I lose the will to live. The general population just read the headlines and for me, as a gardener, it causes endless headaches. My job is still dealing with the headlines of 'we're going to have Mediterranean summers' 'plant drought resistant plants' nonsense that was issued by the METO in one of these reports. Still to this day explaining to clients why Olive trees and Lavender hedges aren't the best idea if you live in the soggy South West, and still replacing dead planting schemes that they insisted on having, based on these METO reports.

A little bit of knowledge rarely pays off, I wish these reports were limited to academic circles. 

One of Dr David Viner's famous predictions made in March 2000.

""We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time,"

Are you kidding me? Snow has always caused chaos in this country!!!!