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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I don't know whether Jethro keeps up with all things horticultural but 2017 saw a record number of vineyards open in the UK and again this year popular gardening media was advising we look to the drought and flood resistant plants for our 1/4 acre plots?

I believe around the same time as the vineyard/med plkanting report was out we had some MetO chappie telling us that we were to expect a 'slowdown' in warming rates over that coming decade but that this period would terminate with as super nino and warming rates rising faster than their peak values over the past warming spurt.

Throughout the noughties I oft repeated this forecast and , guess what came to pass?

Since 2014 the planet has been in a warming spurt that does not seem to want to abate?

Of course with Asia reducing its dimming and now the Pacific side of the Arctic catching up to the Atlantic side in its amounts of seasonal open waters we now have plenty of energy not available in the last warming spurt.......... and , of course, we have much more of those pesky heat trapping gasses in the atmosphere these days too!

As for our UK weather?

Well we saw a run of 'washout summers' linked to a trough out in the Atlantic allegedly driven by low ice over the Arctic.

With the opening of the Pacific side of the Arctic basin that Jet pattern has been augmented and so has edged toward the opposite of that which fed us our 'Washout Summers' with this past summer being our first glimpse of this new 'stable' pattern. If this assessment is 'in the ball park' then why should we not expect this pattern to persist until the next major drop in ice cover over the Arctic ?( and the new jet pattern this allows to develop?)

Another 3 summers like the last one will see our Gardeners wishing to have gardens that do not die each summer or to plan gardens which do not flood every extreme rain event that passes over.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

One of Dr David Viner's famous predictions made in March 2000.

""We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time,"

Are you kidding me? Snow has always caused chaos in this country!!!! 

With an atmosphere carrying ever more moisture I do not find this statement a problem Data?

We have seen the polar night Jet become ever more dysfunctional this past 2 decades so 'polar plunges' can now provide extreme cold ever further south ( balanced by the heat/moisture we now see flood the basin over the dark winter months bringing above freezing temps into the high Arctic these past few years?).

Our Valley ( not far from Irlam by the way ) has seen just what our new atmosphere can provide in the way of precipitation, any such 'atmospheric rivers' running into cold on the ground will give us feet of snow from a single event........ and it will bring chaos to our new levels of traffic esp. if the snow falls over a work day.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
26 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

With an atmosphere carrying ever more moisture I do not find this statement a problem Data?

 

Dr David Viner said snow was going to be a rarer sight over the coming years, so when it did occur, we will get caught out and it will cause chaos as a result. That is what he was suggesting, 

Snow has always caused chaos, we have always been caught out. I know the history, I have read articles from decades ago of snow causing chaos, that once again we were ill-prepared etc.

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
2 hours ago, JeffC said:

Your point being? 

I expressed an opinion that wasn't overly dissimilar to others.. 

My point being you said "That's not to denigrate anyone at MetO" when you'd spent the preceding two paragraphs doing just that

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Dr David Viner said snow was going to be a rarer sight over the coming years, so when it did occur, we will get caught out and it will cause chaos as a result. That is what he was suggesting, 

Snow has always caused chaos, we have always been caught out. I know the history, I have read articles from decades ago of snow causing chaos, that once again we were ill-prepared etc.

This is very true. I've seen contemporary documentaries about the Winter of 1962/63 for example and even then it was presented as a chaotic event that infrastructure was struggling to cope with. Truth is with the exception of more upland areas snow has always been a bit rare in the UK. It's not as if this country has ever really been famous for cold and snowy Winters and if anything it's always been better known for the opposite of relatively mild and often wet ones. Sure there have been times in the past when snow has been more frequent, often in the form of clusters that have waxed and waned (the last such was the period in the years from 2008-13 and at this stage for all we know last Winter might have marked the beginning of a new one). But as you say we have always been unprepared for it simply because unlike some parts of the world we can't guarantee much of it every single Winter that comes. Also even in the rarer Winters we do get a lot they are more often characterized by individual spells rather than many weeks or even months of sub zero temperatures and constant snow cover, which is what made that rather small bunch of more famous Winters in the 20th century even more incredible.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
49 minutes ago, Devonian said:

My point being you said "That's not to denigrate anyone at MetO" when you'd spent the preceding two paragraphs doing just that

Not specifically, I was merely suggesting that the output wasn't really what one would expect of the Met O as a government agency. But then again...

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

Just to illustrate the point I was making, I'd like to quote this article that was published in 'The Glasgow Herald' all the way back on the 8th December 1879.

"Whatever be the reason we have sets of mild Winters and sets of cold ones. At times so many mild seasons come together that people begin to speculate about "change of climate" and to lament over the "degeneracy of modern Winters" only to be reminded soon by a year such as last that we are still in the neighbourhood of the Arctic circle. It is more than likely therefore that before gliding into the next mild "cycle" we may have two or three Winters of more than average intensity."

The fact this was written nearly 140 years ago is incredible and really reminds you that even back then people were talking about the weather in much the same way as some posters on this forum do now.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
32 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Not specifically, I was merely suggesting that the output wasn't really what one would expect of the Met O as a government agency. But then again...

...this...

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
33 minutes ago, tablet said:

for the IPCC report to be correct , the world temperature records must be correct , here is a video ( that will probably be removed , as the last one was ) called " Is The Global Temperature Record Credible? "  by Tony Heller

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0l3tymEagc

Mr Heller analyses NASA's 2000 temperature records , against the 2018 temperature record from NASA

He's just a (often abusive and dishonest) bloke who posts videos to you tube that pick at imaginary nits to make mountains out of sand grains. As far as I can tell he has no formal education in a relevant science.

If you believe Heller you're saying specialist education is pointless. Do you really want us to go back to the dark ages?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield
20 hours ago, Devonian said:

He's just a (often abusive and dishonest) bloke who posts videos to you tube that pick at imaginary nits to make mountains out of sand grains. As far as I can tell he has no formal education in a relevant science.

If you believe Heller you're saying specialist education is pointless. Do you really want us to go back to the dark ages?

 

but it's quite obvious that NASA are changing their past temperature readings making it appear warmer now that it would have had they left them unaltered

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, tablet said:

but it's quite obvious that NASA are changing their past temperature readings making it appear warmer now that it would have had they left them unaltered

And you know that (and can prove that) how, exactly?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

here is a NASA graph from 2000

2.thumb.JPG.d72f6cc3c39a785eb861e3aafe4616de.JPG

and here is the same graph from 2017

1.thumb.JPG.3704c4b0ffe2027d2899faf85f892829.JPG

NASA have added about  1 degree C , why would they alter past , historical temperature records ? except it does make it look warmer now

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Was that the one from a well-known denier site?

And as I've already said to you: no number of silly insults will ever add-up to a scientific argument...

he's pointing out altered graphs , so Tony Heller is altering graphs ? or is he just showing graphs that have been altered ?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
8 minutes ago, tablet said:

I posted a video clip showing how that very fact stoner , but it's been removed ( again )

If you search online you can find a video or article to support any crazy idea or conspiracy. Thus links to random articles and videos isn't suitable in a scientific debate, especially known conspiracy nuts like Heller (aka Steven Goddard).
That's why we tend to use peer reviewed expert research as evidence. It's not a perfect system, but it has been carried out by true experts and has numerous checks and standards.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

if Tony Heller is lying about NASA altering graphs , or he were altering them himself , it would be easy to prove , and could therefore be discounted .

but I think the link was removed because his evidence is quite compelling as to historical data being corrupted

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
13 minutes ago, tablet said:

here is a NASA graph from 2000

2.thumb.JPG.d72f6cc3c39a785eb861e3aafe4616de.JPG

and here is the same graph from 2017

1.thumb.JPG.3704c4b0ffe2027d2899faf85f892829.JPG

NASA have added about  1 degree C , why would they alter past , historical temperature records ? except it does make it look warmer now

But that would make the current warming curve appear less steep than it actually is. Why would they do that, if they were in the business of exaggerating global warming?

Oh, sorry tablet - they've (allegedly) subtracted one degree. Even more bizarre.

All we ask is that you provide proper peer-reviewed evidence that backs-up your claims. That's all.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield
22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But that would make the current warming curve appear less steep than it actually is. Why would they do that, if they were in the business of exaggerating global warming?

Oh, sorry tablet - they've (allegedly) subtracted one degree. Even more bizarre.

All we ask is that you provide proper peer-reviewed evidence that backs-up your claims. That's all.

if you make it appear colder in  the past , the present will come out warmer.

Edited by Mapantz
No need for personal insults.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
19 minutes ago, tablet said:

if you make it appear colder in  the past , the present will come out warmer.

But, according to you, NASA have added one degree to past temperatures...?

Edited by Mapantz
Editing the offending quoted post
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But that would make the current warming curve appear less steep than it actually is. Why would they do that, if they were in the business of exaggerating global warming?

Oh, sorry tablet - they've (allegedly) subtracted one degree. Even more bizarre.

All we ask is that you provide proper peer-reviewed evidence that backs-up your claims. That's all.

I think what tablet is trying to point out is that the original graph  shows a fairly stable period with peaks and troughs over a 1oo year or so period  .  the later graph  shows a huge increase over that period

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
11 minutes ago, tablet said:

if Tony Heller is lying about NASA altering graphs , or he were altering them himself , it would be easy to prove , and could therefore be discounted .

but I think the link was removed because his evidence is quite compelling as to historical data being corrupted

The data updates are all explained and published by NASA and other groups that monitor station data. They even provide a web page where you can view the changes to the temperature record using graphs and such.
For a group with billions in funding and employing thousands of the brightest minds on the planet, they sure are terrible at covering up their corruption /s


Even the UAH satellite temperature data, ran by 2 creationist AGW disbelievers, gets regular updates which alters past data. It's a completely normal thing to do, across the board.
If we never learned, changed and improved how we do things, we wouldn't be human!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Something else we can do to check the temperature record is compare with other surface records.
In the graph below we have the NASA data (red), Met Office data (green) and the Berkeley Earth data (blue) created by former climate "sceptic" Richard Muller 

tempcomp.thumb.png.125ae917b8e9a7cebbeb9cdf0837d5b7.png

They all line up pretty well, don't you think?
Either it means that using different methods, they've all come to the same conclusion - a common occurrence in science which helps to validate the results.
Or.
There a global multi-level conspiracy, the likes of which the world has never seen, of scientists and scientific organisations working together to corrupt the global temperature data records

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

@tablet

There's no need for personal jibes & insults. I understand that these types of threads can generate heat between users, but insults and sniping are not tolerated.

Keep it friendly. Thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield
8 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The data updates are all explained and published by NASA and other groups that monitor station data. They even provide a web page where you can view the changes to the temperature record using graphs and such.
For a group with billions in funding and employing thousands of the brightest minds on the planet, they sure are terrible at covering up their corruption /s


Even the UAH satellite temperature data, ran by 2 creationist AGW disbelievers, gets regular updates which alters past data. It's a completely normal thing to do, across the board.
If we never learned, changed and improved how we do things, we wouldn't be human!

I find it difficult to believe you can alter temperature records like these  :

7.thumb.JPG.21d35f778877d8fe6d8025d75aeb8711.JPG

same graph 18 years later

8.thumb.JPG.aa37ddab9e283da936ad1e46f6a7ab55.JPG

 and come up with a good response for the alterations , and saying " oh , we're human , we make mistakes " just isn't convincing , as you say the number of people these organisation's have and the hardware at their disposal  makes me question these adjustments

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield
Just now, Mapantz said:

@tablet

There's no need for personal jibes & insults. I understand that these types of threads can generate heat between users, but insults and sniping are not tolerated.

Keep it friendly. Thank you.

to what are referring ?

 

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