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Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond


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EC clusters continue the slightly more progressive theme

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/11/05/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018110500_240.png

Still some sort of block to the east, but all that's likely to do is keep our winds south of west, with uncertain amounts of precipitation and wind

 

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Thanks knocker. Useful to come over to this thread for a dose of reality rather than seeing P14 of the 18z GFS run which shows cold weather at 300 hours, when we all know that it's standard wet, windy

Hi Malcolm, I just saw your post after doing mine above. Yes this thread seems under used which is a shame.The idea of this one as you probably know is for any members to post what hopefully

Finally getting time to check how the 500 mb anomaly charts have been over the past week. They have not consistently but generally gone from suggesting trough domination to one that now has ridging as

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Definitely seems like a much more unsettled week than we've been use to for a long time with the Atlantic low pressure systems taking turns to try and push that block further east but only very slowly.. plenty of rain for western parts..

GFS..

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_48.thumb.jpg.e0179c1a3a1fb965c868d7fbc561e028.jpg

GFS ECMWF and GEM all going for a rather deep low on Friday with an active frontal system pushing swiftly from the West giving a spell of gales and heavy rain.

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_108.thumb.jpg.37262593031943d0f6d0de4128b75955.jpg

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My take on the next 2 weeks

Monday 5 November

Ec-gfs and the ec has dropped the ridge extension towards Greenland, keeping the marked trough much as above, well pretty well, gfs has also klost the ridge towards Greenland and has a trough much as ec, not a closed one as above. This pattern has been evolving on them both over the past few days, so they do seem both to be suggesting an altantic, fairly strong, flow out of the trough over the e’ern states into the trough, west of the uk on ec, almost over the uk on gfs, and it looks diffluent so the probability of surface lows tending to deepen as they get into the trough is there.

Noaa idiffers from the other 2 in keeping the ridge into Greenland from northern norways and shows a marked trough, as it has done for several days, over/just w of the uk and into Europe.

So not total agreement although, unusually, I do suspect noaa tending more towards the other 2 over the next 2-3 days. Its 8-14 shows a w’ly with a rounded trough over/w of the uk

Overall I think we are heading for a spell of atlantic dominated weather in the 6-14 day time frame. What happens after that is not somewhere I usually go but the MJO may shed some light on the probable 500 mb anomalies a week or so beyond that. (can’t find my link for this at the moment).

500 mb links below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

ps If anyone can give me the current link to MJO and probable 500 mb anomaly charts that would be very kind?

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11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

My take on the next 2 weeks

Monday 5 November

Ec-gfs and the ec has dropped the ridge extension towards Greenland, keeping the marked trough much as above, well pretty well, gfs has also klost the ridge towards Greenland and has a trough much as ec, not a closed one as above. This pattern has been evolving on them both over the past few days, so they do seem both to be suggesting an altantic, fairly strong, flow out of the trough over the e’ern states into the trough, west of the uk on ec, almost over the uk on gfs, and it looks diffluent so the probability of surface lows tending to deepen as they get into the trough is there.

Noaa idiffers from the other 2 in keeping the ridge into Greenland from northern norways and shows a marked trough, as it has done for several days, over/just w of the uk and into Europe.

So not total agreement although, unusually, I do suspect noaa tending more towards the other 2 over the next 2-3 days. Its 8-14 shows a w’ly with a rounded trough over/w of the uk

Overall I think we are heading for a spell of atlantic dominated weather in the 6-14 day time frame. What happens after that is not somewhere I usually go but the MJO may shed some light on the probable 500 mb anomalies a week or so beyond that. (can’t find my link for this at the moment).

500 mb links below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

ps If anyone can give me the current link to MJO and probable 500 mb anomaly charts that would be very kind?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Hi feb

Thank you, perhaps the 2nd link is the nearest to what I used to have bookmarked, thanks

 

I used to as well but Lorenzo game me the third link a couple of years ago, i cant remember why, must have been a chart that wasnt available on the raliegh one, could have been to do with ENSO i would have thought.

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Its a very slow moving pattern, atlantic locked in place by the stubborn heights to our east, hence a predominantly unsettled trough dominated outlook for the foreseeable, the milder uppers will slowly be lifted out as the trough inches ever so slowly further eastwards. Ripe territory for secondary low formation - cyclonic conditions, some heavy rainfall in places  - generally a poor outlook for sunshine and fine weather.

Longer term - jetstream profile looks buckled and amplified and there is every chance we may see pressure rises over and near the UK as we move further through middle of the month opening up the chance to something colder from the north later on.

Early-mid November is a very uninspiring period of the year I feel - I can't remember the last time we had either a colder than average first half, or a mostly settled fine foggy cold one - a long time ago. 

Ode to November -

No fun, no sun November!

lots of adjectives beginning with letter d as well -

dark, dank, dismal, dreary, dull, drizzly, drab...

 

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A continuation of unsettled weather, with temps around average, in the 5-10 period. However towards the end, as indicated by the ecm, the cross polar flow and the increased amplification over North America, with a very cold trough down the eastern half. does also initiate some amplification downstream. Thus we have some trough deconstruction to the west of the UK and some rebuilding of the ridge and temps on the up over the UK

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_9.thumb.png.79e65e9f77017d6c3a0c4b156e0bcaa4.png1314788305_t192850.thumb.png.16c3086f20417f762f8ad5199e625952.pngtemp.thumb.png.4774d0a09ad227213590deea41b7c301.png

Edited by knocker
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Looking a this morning's GEFS and EPS mean anomalies, along with last night's NOAA, they show no indication of any significant change in the medium term. With twin vortex lobes Franz Joseph/norther Canada and associated trough down the eastern/central Atlantic a strong westerly upper flow is maintained which is modified somewhat in the vicinity of the UK, courtesy of the ridge to the east. Thus remaining unsettled but with a NW/SE bias over the UK with temps generally around average.

9-14.thumb.png.e95ddd1d6efc3f3171e7837e220f1cc0.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_59.thumb.png.3c30d74d043d9f9f264454d80555f320.png814day_03.thumb.gif.ca94882cde31d105eb59c8b49a2dd14e.gif

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Yes it looks like an increasingly Atlantic influenced setup for us going into the coming week as the block to the east loses it's grip.

We see at day 5 on all 3 main charts the low pressure parked nearby with a brisk westerly flow and rain bands moving across.

ECH1-120.GIF?06-12UN120-21.GIF?06-06gfsnh-0-114.png?6

Looking further on no sign of anything untowards by day 10 on the mean charts.

EDH1-240.GIF?06-12gensnh-21-1-240.png

Low pressure towards Greenland extending a trough southwards and the usual Euro heights but now with the jet running much further east across Scandinavia.Thus an ongoing broad westerly pattern with temperatures around or just above average with some rain moving in at times.

 

Edited by phil nw.
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10 hours ago, knocker said:

A continuation of unsettled weather, with temps around average, in the 5-10 period. However towards the end, as indicated by the ecm, the cross polar flow and the increased amplification over North America, with a very cold trough down the eastern half. does also initiate some amplification downstream. Thus we have some trough deconstruction to the west of the UK and some rebuilding of the ridge and temps on the up over the UK

 

This morning....................and now

gfs_z500a_nh_33.thumb.png.c5a5da4e3de736d15342eb87b92a63ee.pnggfs_z500a_nh_39.thumb.png.f402aea01de310ac9d5bf35e7c53d37a.png

Edited by knocker
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The ecm is partly similar but has the downstream amplification further west and thus the deconstruction of the trough allows the ridge to build north over the UK. The EPS in general supports this and going forward into the ext period the high cell strengthens to the east, as the Atlantic trough retrogresses, and becomes more influential over the UK

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_9.thumb.png.44bcafd930b6a11457c39cc3fc180d4c.pngindex.thumb.png.960144a33a4e2a41629830b7ea7b7fc5.png

 

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59 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm is partly similar but has the downstream amplification further west and thus the deconstruction of the trough allows the ridge to build north over the UK. The EPS in general supports this and going forward into the ext period the high cell strengthens to the east, as the Atlantic trough retrogresses, and becomes more influential over the UK

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_9.thumb.png.44bcafd930b6a11457c39cc3fc180d4c.pngindex.thumb.png.960144a33a4e2a41629830b7ea7b7fc5.png

 

Certainly will be having a look at the clusters later ......

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 Evening All...! A normal November start to be honest.... Quiet start , mild stormy , and then the weather has a rest...! Those people who say this is Climate change please take a look at the period charts.....

afterx.png

after.png

afterxx.png

6759504-The_Lighthouse-Porthcawl.jpg

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12 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

 Evening All...! A normal November start to be honest.... Quiet start , mild stormy , and then the weather has a rest...! Those people who say this is Climate change please take a look at the period charts.....

afterx.png

after.png

afterxx.png

6759504-The_Lighthouse-Porthcawl.jpg

And why would anyone having an understanding of climate put one or two warm days down to climate change? Another straw man perhaps, AW?

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19 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

 Evening All...! A normal November start to be honest.... Quiet start , mild stormy , and then the weather has a rest...! Those people who say this is Climate change please take a look at the period charts.....

 

Lets take a look at the global temperature anomaly charts shall we...

ANOM2m_mean_equir.png Ah yes, global temperatures 0.6C above the 1981-2010 climatological average, UK well above average, just normal stuff...

Back on topic a rather static pattern in the next few days. Low pressure stationed to our NW but staying in the same place. Not zonal like a few others in the other thread have said.

GFSOPEU12_96_1.png Could be notably wet in exposed areas, mild in the west, some cooler weather at times for Ireland

GFSOPEU12_222_1.png Then things turn very mild with uppers notably warm for a SSE'ly.... I wonder why that may be? +ve anomalies over Africa?

GFSOPEU12_300_1.png And then even with an easterly we still get more in the way of warm uppers...

Funny how we are seeing above average temperatures for a variety of circulation types isn't it?

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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13 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Lets take a look at the global temperature anomaly charts shall we...

ANOM2m_mean_equir.png Ah yes, global temperatures 0.6C above the 1981-2010 climatological average, UK well above average, just normal stuff...

Back on topic a rather static pattern in the next few days. Low pressure stationed to our NW but staying in the same place. Not zonal like a few others in the other thread have said.

GFSOPEU12_96_1.png Could be notably wet in exposed areas, mild in the west, some cooler weather at times for Ireland

GFSOPEU12_222_1.png Then things turn very mild with uppers notably warm for a SSE'ly.... I wonder why that may be? +ve anomalies over Africa?

GFSOPEU12_300_1.png And then even with an easterly we still get more in the way of warm uppers...

Funny how we are seeing above average temperatures for a variety of circulation types isn't it?

Uppers can be misleading to what actually occurs on the surface once you get into November - the last chart would bring a slack airstream ripe for fog formation which would be slow to clear suppressing temperatures I would imagine. We can develop homegrown cold pools by mid November under high pressure, the opposite occurs in May when we can develop very warm homegrown pools.

 

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8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Uppers can be misleading to what actually occurs on the surface once you get into November - the last chart would bring a slack airstream ripe for fog formation which would be slow to clear suppressing temperatures I would imagine. We can develop homegrown cold pools by mid November under high pressure, the opposite occurs in May when we can develop very warm homegrown pools.

 

This can be the case although I think that the last chart would still be mild as Europe still hasn't seen a decent cold shot of air by this point. Very mild uppers would be circulating around central Europe for at least 10 days with little frost or snow. As a result the temperatures for that period are still pretty mild because there is little cold air at the surface to tap into from Europe, but that may change closer to the time.

GFSOPUK12_312_48.png GFSOPUK12_324_48.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Certainly will be having a look at the clusters later ......

Without in any way being definitive, the clusters in the ext period are certainly not against the last round of amplification initiating retrogression of the main Atlantic trough amplification of the HP in the vicinity of the UK. Await what today brings

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No real sign to be honest of anything cold even at the surface in the next 10 days, though it looks like next week we will see things become drier after what appears to be a rather poor weekend with wind and rain.

EDM1-144.GIF?06-0   EDM1-192.GIF?06-0   EDM1-240.GIF?06-0

High pressure and a southerly feed could result in very mild conditions if skies stay clear. 

To be honest in terms of seeing an amplified pattern bear fruit further down the line, perhaps reference is needed to November 2014 which had persistent heights to our East/North east which didn't really have an impact  in the rather underwhelming winter that followed, so honestly from that one viewpoint alone I am unconvinced, that was also a year where a lot of factors did support a cold than average winter would be incoming.

The morning runs so far again show a trough diging a long way south at the start of week 2, supporting the southerly idea.

GFS/GEM day 7

gfs-0-168.png   gem-0-168.png?00

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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The cold Arctic plunge down N. America later next week and the subsequent amplification downstream with the deconstruction and retrogression of the trough does seem to be gaining some traction but whether it's transitional is the $64,000 question

gfs_z500a_nhem_31.thumb.png.e94e703814d6e4ed302bf0aa147c7a3f.pnggfs_z500a_nhem_37.thumb.png.957bbfbfcc8e67ff53d3c9e76c38c6fa.png

The GEFS anomaly

gfs-ens_z500aNormMean_nhem_7.thumb.png.4d75fd727cf39b78387551627a3da657.png

Edited by knocker
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Through the beginning of next week the unsettled weather continues in the brisk westerly, interspersed with some brief ridging, according to the ecm. And then it also goes through the motions during the latter part of the week, but perhaps looking a tad tenuous by the end.of the run

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_8.thumb.png.f6e790fdecad68763834b18809bcb9bd.pngt192v.thumb.png.42d7bba5551eafad8c9cd152712eac43.pngindex.thumb.png.6c88857ad144c7e39362d20fa759a020.png

 

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12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Uppers can be misleading to what actually occurs on the surface once you get into November - the last chart would bring a slack airstream ripe for fog formation which would be slow to clear suppressing temperatures I would imagine. We can develop homegrown cold pools by mid November under high pressure, the opposite occurs in May when we can develop very warm homegrown pools.

 

I can't see the sort of charts that would bring the conditions you mention this morning. Charts such as this one from the ECM would bring mild, benign conditions with a direct southerly. There only needs to be a bit of breeze to stop the fog from forming:

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

I agree it's not just about the uppers, but I can't see any strong areas of high pressure slap bang over the top of us that would leave us vulnerable to fog and suppressed temps.

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