Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Perhaps elaborate on that as some on here won't have an idea what them charts mean.

The MJO is tracking around through phase 1,2 and the next chart is the composite anomaly for phase 2. The EPS is the anomaly chart for last night which bears some similarities with the analog. I was just musing

 

Edited October 30, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Without attempting any detail the latter part of the ecm is essentially the amplification of the European ridge, eventually into Greenland, That blocks the ingress of systems from the Atlantic but is very conducive to WAA into Europe

[bluearmy]

33 minutes ago, knocker said:

The MJO is tracking around through phase 1,2 and the next chart is the composite anomaly for phase 2. The EPS is the anomaly chart for last night which bears some similarities with the analog. I was just musing

 

The bias corrected gefs have it rushing into 4 at a fair amplitude. plenty going on ........

Edited October 30, 2018 by bluearmy

[knocker]

A quick look at the GEFS and EPS medium term mean anomalies this morning. Some minor differences but very much in the same ball park

Twin vortex lobes N. Russia and northern Canada with associated troughs eastern Europe and down the eastern region of N. America. And, the key element, is the amplified trough/ridge combination over the eastern Atlantic and Europe, All of this, with Some suggestion of ridging in the western Atlantic, but that's all, resulting in a strong westerly flow exiting North America but backing SW, or even SSW in the vicinity of the UK, courtesy of the blocking ridge extending across northern Scandinavia. The precise alignment of the key players is paramount but the percentage play is for unsettled weather over this period with a NW/SE bias and temps around average. As always the det. runs will sort the detail

Last evening's NOAA is in the same ball park

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Due to follow this track for Sat afternoon - evening Ireland W Scotland.

at T102

 

[bluearmy]

the gfsp looks like it has finally sussed out the direction of travel re the split flow in week 2 ……..currently showing the same issues as the gfs usual has over the years …...

[knocker]

The story of the ecm evolution next week is essentially the block to the east standing firm as a rock which merely forces the energy, and troughs, to track south east, where the latter tend to disrupt before by the end everything  comes to a halt with low pressure dominating the Atlantic and high Europe

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z doesn't look overly cold from around Friday as we begin to bring winds in from the south or south-west. The cold air is pushed a long north 

Edited October 30, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM 12z doesn't look overly cold from around Friday as we begin to bring winds in from the south or south-west. The cold air is pushed a long north 

If that trough gets stuck there out west, all the riding around us will be powerless to turn the UK cold, and there'll be lots of *lovely mild / warm weather to come this month! 

(*this is to provide balance with my post in the 'cold' thread, where I have been criticized for being too 'anti - mild' today, hopefully this will keep the people in question happy ) 

[phil nw.]

This quite chilly spell looks like ending at the weekend as the approach of ex-ts Oscar heads towards the north west of the UK turning the winds to south westerly.

Fax for T72hrs shows the expected picture by Friday,

The blocking Euro ridge thereafter helping to maintain the milder conditions going into next week as the Atlantic lows slow to our west.

ECM mean at Day 8

By this point we are on the warmer side of the pattern which looks to become slow moving for a while so we can expect fronts becoming slow moving as they come up against the block with rain affecting particularly the western side of the UK at times.

It's not unusual to see a Euro ridge and Atlantic trough disruption at this time of year.The current eastern block though can flatter to deceive as it is unlikely to get cold from the east with this sort of alignment of the main players especially with the Atlantic trough fairly close by pushing those south westerlies in.

Edited October 30, 2018 by phil nw.

[knocker]

Leaving aside the detail, which is problematic in any case, the gfs and ecm are more or less in agreement vis the general evolution next week. In a nutshell a strong jet running south of the North American trough across the Atlantic. but with the block to the east remaining steadfast it, ducks south east leaving the troughs to disrupt and remain relatively stagnant in the Atlantic

[Summer Sun]

Little change from ECM overnight with the cold air pushed a long way north. Unsettled at times for the UK with the risk of heavy rain and strong winds.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Little change from ECM overnight with the cold air pushed a long way north. Unsettled at times for the UK with the risk of heavy rain and strong winds.

 

 

Yes, little sign of any cold yet.

[Summer Sun]

The 00z temperature anomaly had very little in the way of below average temps quite widely across Europe

The 12z will be available later tonight

Edited October 31, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

12z ECM following on from previous runs with mild west or southwesterly winds for the UK plenty of wind and rain but a few shorter calmer interludes

 

[knocker]

This evening the ecm moves into a pattern that has been indicated recently. At T120 the Bermuda high begins to amplify north west and with the block to the east staying firm the main Atlantic trough starts to become negatively tilted, which becomes established at T144.

And by T168 the Atlantic is dominated by the trough flanked on either side by surging high pressure.which means only one thing for Europe

Edited October 31, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The opening comment in the post above is applicable to both the gfs and ecm this morning. So that, on the ecm, there is a large static trough in the Atlantic encircled by ridges to the west and east. but it is far enough east for perturbations to form in the strong circulation of the trough and traverse the UK bringing periods of rain, heavy at times, and quite strong winds but still probably with a NW/SE bias. Temps will vary around the average.

By the end of the run the ridge to the west has failed to repulse the energy exiting NA and the strong jet is running across the Atlantic portending some more unsettled weather

Edited November 1, 2018 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The opening comment in the post above is applicable to both the gfs and ecm this morning. So that, on the ecm, there is a large static trough in the Atlantic encircled by ridges to the west and east. but it is far enough east for perturbations to form in the strong circulation of the trough and traverse the UK bringing periods of rain, heavy at times, and quite strong winds but still probably with a NW/SE bias. Temps will vary around the average.

By the end of the run the ridge to the west has failed to repulse the energy exiting NA and the strong jet is running across the Atlantic portending some more unsettled weather

Looking at EC det one thing i did notice was some cold uppers flooding into Canada, wonder if that is helping fuel the active jet stream we are seeing in the outputs...

Either way its beginning to look very zonal for the time being.

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking at EC det one thing i did notice was some cold uppers flooding into Canada, wonder if that is helping fuel the active jet stream we are seeing in the outputs...

Either way its beginning to look very zonal for the time being.

There is very cold trough down NA with a strong jet running between it and the ridge in the western Atlantic before exiting across the Atlantic

[Summer Sun]

Little change again overnight from ECM the UK turns milder but with some deep lows bringing heavy rain and strong winds with a few shorter calmer interludes in between

[Summer Sun]

Last nights 12z temp anomaly update shows the vast majority of Europe to be around or a bit above average parts of SE Europe are shown to be well above average

 

 

[knocker]

And this morning's det run fits neatly into the EPS mean anomaly

[knocker]

Apparently the highest 850mb temp ever recorded in Finland in November is 12C. Getting close

[Wimbledon88]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Last nights 12z temp anomaly update shows the vast majority of Europe to be around or a bit above average parts of SE Europe are shown to be well above average

 

 

Wow, how old are those maps they use, there are about 15 countries missing.

Let's hope their temp forecast accuracy is better(or not) than their knowledge of go-politics. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking at EC det one thing i did notice was some cold uppers flooding into Canada, wonder if that is helping fuel the active jet stream we are seeing in the outputs...

Either way its beginning to look very zonal for the time being.

which I don't mind living here in early Nov, still too early for proper cold/snow in the south yet, hope for a change in around 3 weeks