Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond

[Summer Sun]

Need to keep a very close eye on next Saturday a deep low moves close by with a lot of mild air in it could be a lot of rain for some as well as very strong winds

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=15&ech=192&carte=1

 

all i say  after 192 hr it could get interesting !!!

[Summer Sun]

Low pressure to our west high pressure to our east result a southerly 

*Not to be taken seriously as it'll be gone on the next run*

[knocker]

Still options for Oscar

[knocker]

And of course the gfs finds another option.. Amplify the Bermuda high north east and Oscar is blocked and goes nowhere except south again.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z gets low pressure over the UK and it doesn't go anywhere for ages

 

[knocker]

The ecm also disconnects TS Oscar from the new low that has formed in the Newfound area and then takes this low on a track across Scotland, albeit weakening in the latter stages. From this point we are back in familiar territory with further amplification of the east and west ridges leading to another trough ducking south east in the vicinity of the UK.

[damianslaw]

Always worth noting the jetstream profile forecasts for the polar front - these suggest a continuation of the rather amplified flow, though not to the same degree as current, the general theme is for a NW-SE aligned jet diving frontal/trough activity through the UK and to our SW into France and Spain, hence not surprised to see the models showing slow moving features as we move into November proper, perhaps with some secondary low formation, and trough disruption. 

How ex tropical storm Oscar interacts with the jet remains to be seen, but it looks like developing into a significant feature coming cut off from the main trough and quite possibly resulting a cyclonic spell, with a brief very mild surge of uppers next weekend before swinging SE, a deeper more closed feature would allow rapid ridge development to its west, and most likely surging north, hence we could be back in a northerly again quite quickly if it separates cleanly from the trough.

An unsettled very typical start to November, snow for northern hills.

[Jordan S]

Pretty impressive agreement at around 5 days out for Friday's deep low pressure system potentially containing the remnants of tropic storm Oscar here's the charts..

Gfs.

Ecmwf.

Gem.

UKMO

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday once again shows the potential for some pretty warm air heading our way along with heavy rain and strong winds

ECM

UKMO

[knocker]

Given the state of play at T120 I've little confidence in venturing much further ahead but just for the record the ecm does develop another wave at the base of the upper trough at T144 and track it north east before it hits the block. This would bring more wet and windy weather to the west and north

[carinthian]

Latest UKMO storm tracker extended chart for D7 sends next weeks depression through at a pace and on a lower track than ECM leaving NW Europe in mostly colder Pm flow after a limited warm sector. The view over here is of rather low confidence in the main models post 120t, especially ECM which appears the most volatile to changes at the present. Defo, Met Office fax to check the fast developments in the shorter range 84t-120t.

C

[knocker]

[Summer Sun]

Saturday could be a fairly decent day the further east you are with temps into the low teens fairly widely

Fresher but mostly dry on Sunday away from Ireland

[Summer Sun]

Looking beyond the weekend we could be about to enter the longest spell of unsettled weather for quite some time with low pressure fairly dominant out to mid-November on 12z GFS 

[Ross90]

If the low on the 14th was that intense there would be red warnings all over the place...

[SMU]

The first NH boom chart of the year !

[knocker]

And following the low at the end of the week another low forms at the base of the Atlantic trough, that is under pressure amplifying high pressure to west, and brings more rain over the UK by Sunday

Edited October 29, 2018 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Eagerly awaiting the updated ec46 ... will the trend away from cold second half November over much of Europe  continue .........

[Spah1]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eagerly awaiting the updated ec46 ... will the trend away from cold second half November over much of Europe  continue .........

What time out? 

[Mike Poole]

Pub run rolling, interesting re next weekend, looks like there's a double block and the low pressure system is struggling against it at T120:

This was looking like a nasty storm earlier maybe we get spared in most of the UK?

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

What time out? 

It’s out and it swings back to a colder second half nov courtesy of lower heights/slp throug( the med coupled with a scandi ridge slowly retrogressing .....

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, bluearmy said:

It’s out and it swings back to a colder second half nov courtesy of lower heights/slp throug( the med coupled with a scandi ridge slowly retrogressing .....

Now the T2’s are available, the lower temps are not affecting the uk but do affect mainland Europe - fairly typical of blocking in autumn  without advection of low uppers.

[knocker]

Hmmm

[Jordan S]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hmmm

Perhaps elaborate on that as some on here won't have an idea what them charts mean.