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Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond


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Thanks knocker. Useful to come over to this thread for a dose of reality rather than seeing P14 of the 18z GFS run which shows cold weather at 300 hours, when we all know that it's standard wet, windy

Hi Malcolm, I just saw your post after doing mine above. Yes this thread seems under used which is a shame.The idea of this one as you probably know is for any members to post what hopefully

Finally getting time to check how the 500 mb anomaly charts have been over the past week. They have not consistently but generally gone from suggesting trough domination to one that now has ridging as

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9 minutes ago, knocker said:

All this twaddle about a traditional cold Xmas when with any luck we will be close to the 12C of Bethlehem

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?

GFS and i would suggest ukmo bring a very mild christmas..

EC though does not, jury out i guess.

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On 07/12/2018 at 07:37, knocker said:

Looking at the EC46 update this morning it looks like chestnuts around the barbie on the beach over Xmas is still on track for us over 70s with a toasty Europe. Just as well the experts in the other thread discount it with their superior knowledge.

Still looking good for this!

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The latter half of the ecm det. run is essentially a battle between the ridging subtropical high and the energy exiting the eastern seaboard. As far as the UK is concerned the former just about hangs on in there but resulting in some fair WAA. The chart at the end merely an illustration of the initial point,

index.thumb.png.e245ae249a34f4d665905d9777c9c28b.pngtemp.thumb.png.b25b0485c9e52012b840310acf824072.png

Edited by knocker
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With the trough.ridge alignment becoming more pronounced (according to the gfs) a mainly dry Xmas Day, perhaps some patchy rain in the south west, with by now a quite marked SW/NE temp divide

gfs_z500_vort_natl_24.thumb.png.cc3f18d09c06e23491bd5456e70ba661.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_24.thumb.png.b451acf06b5cb91bb05196980f52e5bf.png

There is still a lot of energy in the system with a very strong Pacific jet hitting the east Pacific/N. American ridge/trough combination before exiting across the Atlantic. Basically this ensures a continuing battle between the UK ridge and the Atlantic trough with the trough winning on points by the end of the week

gfs_uv250_nh_36.thumb.png.c8d00b336ad37995bf29b2a26fd76e24.png

Edited by knocker
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After Xmas Day which the em has as dry with a little bit of west/east temp divide, with the former a tad above and the latter below average, much along the lines of the gfs regarding the overall picture if not the detail. By the end of the week the battle between the energy and the high pressure continues apace

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Little change with ext EPS anomaly. perhaps some suggestion of the ridge weakening  moving a tad west by the end and thus trending to a more N/S split. As ever the precise orientation and position of the surface high cell paramount. Temps around average perhaps a tad above

10-15.thumb.png.c936eed74b1e6e1694ffeb4082056b15.png

Edited by knocker
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GFS 12z op for Christmas morning-pretty dry and quiet under the high.


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Some colder air aloft towards the north and east where some early frosts are likely but generally all rather quiet and non-descript.

 

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On Xmas Day the ecm has the high cell centred to the south east of the UK battling the energy which results in a dry,warm day with temps above average but some patchy rain into the north during the afternoon/. And essentially this is the story for the week but with the amplification intensifying as the high re surges from the south west and thus the next upper trough deconstructs in the western Atlantic. Temps above average

T126.thumb.png.c98d2cc25a1066600b186e560be2936b.pngt216.thumb.png.2663f00a9e0ce1e714402471627fec24.png

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No indication of any significant pattern jockeying with this evening's anomalies. Essentially still a complex trough/vortex scenario, the Pole/Aleutians/N. Canada and a fair amount of energy exiting the eastern seaboard across an amplified Atlantic with the strong ridge still adjacent to the UK. The precise orientation and position of the surface high cell is paramount but this would portend a dry period, perhaps some systems ingressing the north, with temps around average, perhaps a tad above.

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Once established the high looks like being around until month end.

Day 10 means

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Some ebbing and flowing within the ridging but essentially the high remains the dominant feature from Christmas.Surface conditions especially wrt frost  or fog very much exact position dependant,but generally a benign and dry spell in the offing.Always the chance of more cloud and dampness in the far north west on the periphery from any Atlantic winds

Gefs graph for Warks.-2m temps and rainfall

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currently temperatures heading towards fairly average readings by the holiday period.

 

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For the rest of the week the gfs more or less continues where it was left at T120 with the high pressure established in close proximity to the UK and the trough in the Atlantic making little longitudinal headway. Thus a few mild and quite benign few days. A snapshot at t210

gfs_z500_vort_natl_36.thumb.png.89b3c8bea6d4f4c52a46c2405caac1e1.pnggfs_t850a_natl_36.thumb.png.7ae180f2b5360e6ec5542e89f7b67984.png

Just to add the EC46 at the end of January is a positive joy

Edited by knocker
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1 hour ago, knocker said:

Just to add the EC46 at the end of January is a positive joy

Yes I did note the 0 isotherm getting into Cornwall for the 29/30th of the month ......could  give you a day to try and clear the drifts .............

to be serious, January, once we get through week 1 could be a very interesting month ......would be ironic if the current ec46 forecast was predicated on other factors than the upcoming warming and that said event knocked it off track! 

Edited by bluearmy
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The ecm has Xmas Day quite mild with temps ranging from around 12C in the south west to 8C in north and 5-7C over Scotland. Cloudy for manr areas with some patchy rain.drizzle by late afternoon for M.Ireland and western Scotland.

A not dissimilar day on Boxing Day, maybe a tad warmer in the north of England

Thursday has a freshening western breeze in the north with the rain/drizzle more widespread in western regions, albeit temps still above average,

And this theme of systems swinging around the high cell continues with more substantial rain impacting the north by 00 Saturday

index.thumb.png.83b10a6b75575310d8d97b843c0976f0.png

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