Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not in Darlington SS, but Tues shocker write off here

Looks like it'll spread to all parts eventually

Wednesday looks a bit better with sunshine returning with a few isolated showers still

[knocker]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Consistency from the ext EPS and not too much cold air around to spoil the party

Looks about right

[knocker]

A new take on trough deconstruction

[I remember Atlantic 252]

sucks again, bring back good old winters, flip flops probably more realistic than sledges

[knocker]

At t120 the ecm has a positively tilted upper trough to the west of the UK starting to deconstruct as the Bermuda high amplifies in the western atlantic. A fresh westerly flow over the UK with showers along north west coasts.

This process continues and by Sunday midday a separate area of low pressure is over the UK bringing with some very unsettled weather and a very wet day for many. Temps a fair bit above average

24 hours later the high pressure to the west becomes much more influential resulting in a northerly over the UK with showers in coastal regions and temps maybe a tad above average. But by Xmas day the high is under a certain amount of pressure as there is still a lot of eastbound energy around and the wind backs north westerly and freshens bringing frequent showers to the north. Temps still above average but of course all of this is subject to future tweaks.

 

[knocker]

One has to say the ext EPS anomaly is very consistent and this evening NOAA has joined the party in what is quite impressive amplification for this time frame. This still indicates a N/S split as there is still a lot of energy swinging across the Atlantic. Temps a tad above average

 

[knocker]

Apparently this thread has been renamed the wind and rain thread. Makes me feel rather stupid.

[knocker]

To briefly follow on from the short range with the gfs. Through Sunday and Monday the trough does become somewhat isolated to the south west as the ridge spreads north east attempting to connect to the Euro high but a surface front does track north east across the country bringing rain and some very warm temps.

By Xmas day this has all become a tad messy as the trough/ridge interact so I think I#ll leave it there

Edited December 18, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm also has the positively tilted Atlantic trough under pressure at t120 but it then splits it without interference from the European high which results in a wet Sunday, particularly in the south  But this does remove the trough to the south west from the picture and facilitates the movement of the high pressure east by Xmas day, albeit not ideally aligned

[knocker]

The hills are alive to the sound of music

[I remember Atlantic 252]

More shorts I think, 2000+'s suck for cold

[knocker]

Interesting there is only one cluster in the EPS ext period taking a couple of spot checks and not surprisingly they are close to the mean

There is certainly continuing cross model support for this evolution

[knocker]

The gfs still fiddling around with variations of the trough/ridge interaction leading up to Xmas Day

before evolving much along the lines being indicated by the anomalies

[knocker]

The models appear to struggling with the trough/ridge interaction at the beginning of next week

As far as the ecm is concerned the difference from last night's run starts around t132 with the splitting, or not, of the upper trough to the west

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

Might be able to pack the wollies away for Christmas day

[I remember Atlantic 252]

30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Might be able to pack the wollies away for Christmas day

EC give temps anywhere? looks less mild in the east? not as warm as today maybe

[Stuie]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC give temps anywhere? looks less mild in the east? not as warm as today maybe

Single digits up North and low double figures down South I presume.

Edit: I always say up north from the Midlands upwards.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Stuie W

[Summer Sun]

38 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC give temps anywhere? looks less mild in the east? not as warm as today maybe

The site I use doesn't update until around 21:30

[Summer Sun]

UKMO give us a light southerly on Christmas day 

Anyone for a BBQ?

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO give us a light southerly on Christmas day 

Anyone for a BBQ?

I don`t mind a BBQ but I think on this occasion I will pass.

[knocker]

Still quite impressive agreement with the ext anomalies

 

[knocker]

First a quick glance at clusters at the end of the ext period last evening and the three are not a million miles from the mean above

And a quick glance at the continuation of the gfs. On Xmas day the ridge strengthens with the trough relegated to the south west with just a weak residual front bringing some rain to the south. Thereafter it is a battle between the ridge and the strong energy flows still exiting the eastern seaboard

[knocker]

The 200, 100 and 50mb NH gfs charts for T192 this morning

[knocker]

Between Monday midday and Tuesday the ecm establishes the ridge over the UK thus a dry and calm day on Tuesday after showers the previous day. And despite coming under some pressure from the usual source high pressure remains in charge for the rest of the run, albeit some systems do slip across the north

[knocker]