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Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond


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The major Atlantic upper trough , with the twin very strong energy flows  exiting the south east seaboard across the baroclinic zone south of it,  is already exerting pressure on the 'trapped', ridge over the UK at T114.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_20.thumb.png.75e072b69d214a29cf21cfe6725b14d2.png

Wind forward to T144 and explosive cyclonesis has occurred in the breeding ground and there is a deep surface low in mid Atlantic whilst the continuing pressure has pushed a weak front across the UK whilst a separate high cell is formed across Scandinavia. And then the main low fills and tracks north and then northwest as it hits the block but the jet to the south is in the 180kt range and waving fronts are forced east across the UK by T168/

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.435ec15feb0cf2735d2e5b118eb37ebd.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.062a16618d02c3200855f7a3dc565584.png

After that another low tracks quickly north east from the feeder fields but I don't think I'll go there

Edited by knocker
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Thanks knocker. Useful to come over to this thread for a dose of reality rather than seeing P14 of the 18z GFS run which shows cold weather at 300 hours, when we all know that it's standard wet, windy

Hi Malcolm, I just saw your post after doing mine above. Yes this thread seems under used which is a shame.The idea of this one as you probably know is for any members to post what hopefully

Finally getting time to check how the 500 mb anomaly charts have been over the past week. They have not consistently but generally gone from suggesting trough domination to one that now has ridging as

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The basic evolution of the ecm is similar to the gfs.after the formation of the ridge over the UK at T120. The enery to the west slowly pushes fronts through until eventually the block is overwhelmed and the high cell banished to the north east but still retaining some influence forcing the Atlantic trough to become negatively tilted.

T144.thumb.png.f848c6124a24ec56ff26dde4979727c5.pngT168.thumb.png.be8b930f2e0966d8d711e3e2b4cabf20.pngT109.thumb.png.6bf0efffd8e358f0d61b68c91ab24878.png

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I'm becoming more and more convinced that this thread is superfluous to requirements as all the interest is in the other thread, which I personally think is pointless as if cold and snow are going to occur they will. where all the experts post.

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By  T168 both ECM and GFS show the Atlantic fronts heading into the UK gradually making inroads into the block that developed from the Azores ridge by then situated over Scandinavia.

gfs_z500_mslp_eu_29.thumb.png.e1f4faeb7cc8ad7bfaa253eb47e1eea1.pngecmwf_z500_mslp_eu_8.thumb.png.2fbc55a76f0d4e61d75278980adfaa48.png

Bringing rain with perhaps some snowfall over the higher ground towards north east of the UK for a while as it comes into somewhat colder air up there.Just my idea as details still to be firmed up on exact surface conditions depending on how much of a skirmish develops as the Atlantic moves in.

At this stage though it does look a win eventually for the Atlantic westerlies based on the amount of energy coming from upstream shown on the GEFs

gfs-ens_uv200_atl_29.thumb.png.736268bb299189b8e9d9905238fb7f82.png

A strong storm track heading across over the top of the sub tropical high .

 

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
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19 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm becoming more and more convinced that this thread is superfluous to requirements as all the interest is in the other thread, which I personally think is pointless as if cold and snow are going to occur they will. where all the experts post.

Hi Malcolm,

I just saw your post after doing mine above.

Yes this thread seems under used which is a shame.The idea of this one as you probably know is for any members to post what hopefully are objective/realistic views of the model runs.That  is whether cold or mild- content is welcome based on hopefully what is shown and not what is hoped for-that is where the cold thread comes in.

I contribute as much as time allows i wish i had more, but please continue as i am sure many read your informative posts and find them very useful.I can only hope others will join in here when they can.

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3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Hi Malcolm,

I just saw your post after doing mine above.

Yes this thread seems under used which is a shame.The idea of this one as you probably know is for any members to post what hopefully are objective/realistic views of the model runs.That  is whether cold or mild- content is welcome based on hopefully what is shown and not what is hoped for-that is where the cold thread comes in.

I contribute as much as time allows i wish i had more, but please continue as i am sure many read your informative posts and find them very useful.I can only hope others will join in here when they can.

This thread is great...

Personally i think its set up perfectly as it is Phil..

People can always visit this thread for a less emotional over view.

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Yes a cool westerly pattern seems the strong trend after the demise of the Atlantic ridge,according to the gefs clusters.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cz50&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

A lot of  polar maritime air in the mix with the jet often just south of the UK.

2mt temps for C.England running around or just below average on the graph

1679530240_graphe6_1000_269_89___(1).thumb.gif.e6d9977834dc32ffec353fd2e4b4f7ee.gif

so although windy and wet at times i don't think it can be said " at least it will be mild."

 

 

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30 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes a cool westerly pattern seems the strong trend after the demise of the Atlantic ridge,according to the gefs clusters.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cz50&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

A lot of  polar maritime air in the mix with the jet often just south of the UK.

2mt temps for C.England running around or just below average on the graph

1679530240_graphe6_1000_269_89___(1).thumb.gif.e6d9977834dc32ffec353fd2e4b4f7ee.gif

so although windy and wet at times i don't think it can be said " at least it will be mild."

 

 

Indeed cold zonality as opposed to mild zonality appears to be the form horse as we enter mid-month, which would bring a mix of rain/sleet/snow and temps around average,  bit colder in the north with increased chance of snow with altitude - scottish ski resorts would be very happy with such a set up.

 

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To continue briefly with the gfs take on the next three days post the short range. It is mot surprisingly a continuation of the block against the combined energy and by T144 another low from the baroclinic breeding ground has undergone explosive cyclogenesis as it hitches a ride on the 170jkt jet and tracks NE and then N as it hits the block. Associated fronts will bring rain and strong winds to the UK

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.20d82bb767555f1fa5f9003d612cc4c8.png

Over the next 48 hours the low stalls and fills quite rapidly against the block but it has left the door ajar for another system to be transported north east by the energy and the fronts and rain associated with this make greater headway against the block

gfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.30945c5dcb6de15ba9d1c75b14ea9433.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_33.thumb.png.fb7acc6fde45f6421ec7480d32a72b4e.png

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The ecm has the intense low tracking north a tad further west to be south of Iceland by T144 with a weak front bringing patchy rain on Wednesday.but more concentrated heavy rain on Thursday as the upper trough becomes negatively tilted against the block.

t162.thumb.png.190fd669dac4c6c57247eb1969ae31d4.png

From this point the UK is under the auspices of the upper trough with periods of sunny intervals and showers in the brisk westerly wind with temps around average or a tad below.

t210.thumb.png.95a36c98b0c3ab0b5ba572b705223b4f.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Looking at the EC46 update this morning it looks like chestnuts around the barbie on the beach over Xmas is still on track for us over 70s with a toasty Europe. Just as well the experts in the other thread discount it with their superior knowledge.

Edited by knocker
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4 hours ago, knocker said:

Looking at the EC46 update this morning it looks like chestnuts around the barbie on the beach over Xmas is still on track for us over 70s with a toasty Europe. Just as well the experts in the other thread discount it with their superior knowledge.

I don't think in relation to the EC46, anyone was quoted as forecasting a cold Christmas, but turning colder in early Jan.

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Snapshot of the gfs this evening.

Low pressure over the Arctic with centers N. Russia and the Aleutians with much amplification eastern Pacific across N, America, That trough which is now over Louisiana hasn't done us any favours as lows have nipped east to be picked up by the very strong jet zipping north east across the Atlantic which displaces the block, The Azores high hasn't done us any favours here although it does facilitate the adjustment of the track of the deep lows away from the UK. For a time

gfs_z500a_nh_28.thumb.png.1f5b8cbb555e930abbb2e0c9a2cb1729.pnggfs_uv250_nh_28.thumb.png.a385f713be87bcee048c519238de0fae.png

 

Edited by knocker
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The EPS continues with the pattern change it has been indicating for a while. Low pressure over the Arctic with a trough in the eastern Pacific, amplification over N. America with the Bermuda high ridging in the east  Ergo still a strong upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard with much more zonal passage across the atlantic as the blocking high pressure is now re orientated away to the north east. This would suggest changeable weather with temps around average, perhaps a tad below but as ever the det. runs need sort the detail.

8-13.thumb.png.f968d137bf61988b15e033c5821b6c41.png

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12 hours ago, knocker said:

Looking at the EC46 update this morning it looks like chestnuts around the barbie on the beach over Xmas is still on track for us over 70s with a toasty Europe. Just as well the experts in the other thread discount it with their superior knowledge.

You just cant resist ..

?

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Following on from the short range with the ecm it has a front traversing the country through Thursday which currently (it is a long way off) is a marginal snow event on it's leading flank with dew points hovering just above freezing

t144.thumb.png.7e0a608add785598c3ec178977dba67f.png

But simultaneously an intense little low is swinging up from the south west on the very strong jet and runs along the Channel on Friday bringing some strong winds along southern coasts and some pretty heavy rainfall.in quite few areas. Whether this would be another snow event preceding the front is academic at this range and the ecm only confuses matters vis snow charts and forecast dew points.

T162.thumb.png.e7937e8bdd5df7992200e91bcff2bc6a.png

From this point the energy really starts to gain ground and another intense low sits over Ireland towards the end of the run

t222.thumb.png.f9b6a8b5cd6367f3064ac37faf1eaedf.png

Edited by knocker
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They thought it was all over...............it is now

8-13.thumb.png.c0f50d2ae480c1b4826fdffcbc12c920.png

And further to this I've just been in butchers for some beef slices. He asked me if I would like the undercut and I came over quite faint.

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

They thought it was all over...............it is now

8-13.thumb.png.c0f50d2ae480c1b4826fdffcbc12c920.png

And further to this I've just been in butchers for some beef slices. He asked me if I would like the undercut and I came over quite faint.

Humour knocker ..... that was my line from yesterday .......

the extended ens are looking quite meh for coldies .....infact possibly quite balmy if we get the mean trough far enough north ......but can we trust the mean ???

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9 minutes ago, knocker said:

They thought it was all over...............it is now

8-13.thumb.png.c0f50d2ae480c1b4826fdffcbc12c920.png

And further to this I've just been in butchers for some beef slices. He asked me if I would like the undercut and I came over quite faint.

Don't worry Knocker we,ll get you an undercut for Christmas. ?

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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