Jump to content

Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond


Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

In the ext period the EPS mean anomaly becomes gradually less amplified and thus tending towards a more zonal flow, albeit relatively weak. And the trough has retrogressed accompanying the weakening so that allows the Azores HP a sniff with temps a little below average for the UK and all of Europe.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 700
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Thanks knocker. Useful to come over to this thread for a dose of reality rather than seeing P14 of the 18z GFS run which shows cold weather at 300 hours, when we all know that it's standard wet, windy

Hi Malcolm, I just saw your post after doing mine above. Yes this thread seems under used which is a shame.The idea of this one as you probably know is for any members to post what hopefully

Finally getting time to check how the 500 mb anomaly charts have been over the past week. They have not consistently but generally gone from suggesting trough domination to one that now has ridging as

Posted Images

Following on with this morning's gfs and by T133 the Atlantic trough has been force south as the high pressure consolidates to the east and the intense Canadian trough edges east.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.ec2e3bf27156f3e0c30c3f2ec786819e.png

From then it's a mighty struggle between the energy in the west and the resilient block with honours about even with the odd front sneaking through despite some assistance from the Azores HP. Temps above average but in the light winds a touch of frost and fog will be on the cards

gfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.c24ad0e48ad3f824622a7105d1fae5b0.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_36.thumb.png.bb4f94dbcb030b07be85da1ff98b7a2d.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Although obviously differing in detail the ecm is broadly speaking not a million miles from the gfs and by the end the block is just about hanging in there as pressure from the west and a trough in the area of the Black Sea forces the high to ridge north and north east which advects some very warm into NW Europe

v.thumb.png.a7777bd144a833546996321f8452a2be.png

 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The ext EPS continues to relax the amplification  thus a relatively benign zonal flow, that favours a N/S split vis the UK, with high pressure over Europe centred over the east states with temps a tad below average

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS continues to relax the amplification  thus a relatively benign zonal flow, that favours a N/S split vis the UK, with high pressure over Europe centred over the east states with temps a tad below average

latest extended suite a little more amplified re sceuro ridge  than the previous one - perhaps the dogs dinner of clusters will be a little more organised ...... getting a feeling that the northern arm is going to win his one .......

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

latest extended suite a little more amplified re sceuro ridge  than the previous one - perhaps the dogs dinner of clusters will be a little more organised ...... getting a feeling that the northern arm is going to win his one .......

Yes it's a very tricky set up and far too knife edgy to call at this stage. The trough in the Black Sea area has a role to play here I feel

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The critical feature of the gfs run, apart from the resilience of the block in the east, would appear to be the renewed amplification of the Bermuda high pressure which facilitates the deconstruction of the Atlantic trough, creating yet another cut off low. This then allows it to ridge north east which eventually reinforces the high pressure over the UK But in doing so it has replaced the ridge to the east so it will be interesting to see whether the ecm follows this route

gfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.df1213f87b7505c2b68bfdc9e7aae9c2.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_35.thumb.png.b130faff15e612506a1fab43f2da03d5.png

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the range there is pretty good agreement between the ecm and gfs out until T192 but then the ecm has the energy suppressing the high pressure over the UK . This scenario does funnel colder air south west into Europe

T102.thumb.png.8d5fd7447d168f23192612a109e27efd.pngt234.thumb.png.5e5a4a5d7c83d9ce8a17d4cb99b51ea6.pngjet.thumb.png.b0805ac85f8d324dd6193197511561b2.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

A pretty fair agreement between the GEFS and EPS mean medium term anomalies this evening.Twin vortex lobes northern Russia/northern Canada with associated trough down into the western Atlantic. But it's under some pressure from the Aleutian and Scandinavian ridges. There is a flatter flow across America with a strong upper flow exiting east south of the aforementioned trough across the Atlantic but towards the east it does tend to weaken and diverge with the main arm backing SW, courtesy of the Scandinavian ridge, whilst another section runs south east to the trough in south east Europe. This trough could be quite important when it comes to sorting the detail.

Fairly obviously the orientation and intensity of the trough/ridge axis is important vis the surface detail but suffice it to say at the moment the percentage play is a period of dry weather over most of the UK , with gentle zephyrs, with the north west being susceptible to anything unsettled and temps around average, perhaps a tad below.

8-13.thumb.png.8c83791936e9056ba99cca5d892bfc8e.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.ef880a683b0d234038e9017724c9c400.png

This evening's NOAA pretty much in the same ball park

814day_03.thumb.gif.a4accca43e882f41ec15048d09ee7f39.gif

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

We left the other thread when the battle between the energy to the west and the resident high pressure was getting underway in earnest and within a couple of days the high was well ahead on points

gfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.8910dac947984fa6287f6278bc0f5b8a.png

But it still comes under intense pressure and within another couple of days a strong jet does swing around the high, starting to deform it, and bringing the cut off lows to the SW and SE into play.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_33.thumb.png.36aee527744aacefbb437518118d056c.png

This process continues through to day ten. There is so much counter energy going on here that, IMHO, changes to the detail the further the run progresses are more likely than usual

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Where's Frosty? not been on since the summer

He was around just before that cold snap arrived a few weeks ago but hasn't posted since

One thing that stands out this morning is just how dry it looks for the next 2 weeks. Takes a few more days for Scotland but even here we have very little

London

GFSENS00_52_0_205.thumb.png.c2092dab15d5c2204477db8c2d1542a8.png

Edinburgh

GFSENS00_56_-3_205.thumb.png.0e6e0b924f413d66f89c5de8aea24bed.png

850's still shown to fall back to average in a couple of weeks

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to post
Share on other sites

Finally getting time to check how the 500 mb anomaly charts have been over the past week. They have not consistently but generally gone from suggesting trough domination to one that now has ridging as the main effect is now NW Europe/southern Scandinavia.

I eat humble pie as my last post suggested this as being unlikely, but there we are.

Just how this will pan out is going to make for interesting watching.

NOAA 6-10 last evening also showed its centre of gravity of the +ve heights to be similar, and its 8-14 is along the same lines.

The latest shown below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

 

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

The gfs not hugely different to this morning in the reasonable time frame. Trough disruption at T144 and then the energy/jet getting to work bringing the cut off lows into play.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.0f82dda72bdb893bf1aa24918ecee7d8.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.6fb301250e5c04e5ae8d7bd3d1a85c68.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_33.thumb.png.fb7ed4ff16ca70376e9c4328e7204952.png

jet.thumb.png.f6590c2181ca8be6c92efdd95e0e6959.pngsounding.thumb.png.9d964b7d060055bdd56a3ca830ffa3bb.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Output continues to show the potential for blocking and cold in deep FI and move very much along the lines suggested a few days ago.

Mild mid month, slow fall in temperatures as ScEuro ridge takes charge and flow becomes more continental with chance for mid/high lat blocking displacing cold air toward UK last week Nov/Early Dec.

Ensembles are very slowly reducing the 850 mean in deep FI as members begin to play with how any block and its orientation may allow for cold polar air to flood into the lower latitudes.

graphe3_1000_265_79___.gif

 

Impossible to predict whether any actual cold spell will materialise but the blocking has been well signalled IMO.

Fingers crossed we get an early taste of winter.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

He was around just before that cold snap arrived a few weeks ago but hasn't posted since

One thing that stands out this morning is just how dry it looks for the next 2 weeks. Takes a few more days for Scotland but even here we have very little

London

GFSENS00_52_0_205.thumb.png.c2092dab15d5c2204477db8c2d1542a8.png

Edinburgh

GFSENS00_56_-3_205.thumb.png.0e6e0b924f413d66f89c5de8aea24bed.png

850's still shown to fall back to average in a couple of weeks

great runs, unheard of for Nov, 3rd wettest month of year, todays 12Z EC, hardly a drop of rain on it

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Right back to analysis of non cold weather - and certainly some early spring like weather coming later this week

126-582PUK.GIF?11-12

ECM widely 15-16C on both Thurs/Fri - I'm guessing favored areas may go even higher. 

Big stop in temps likely from Sunday onwards, though. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...