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Hurricane Oscar

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With the potential for Oscar to head towards the UK at the end of the week, let's kick this off..

Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 52.6W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 52.6 West.  Oscar is
moving toward the southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A turn toward
the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday.  After that,
Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north on Monday
night or Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Oscar is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
Edited by Paul
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Welcome to Atlantic Hurricane number 8:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 55.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 55.5 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion
is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
by early Monday, with a northwestward motion forecast on Monday
afternoon. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the
north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed.  The
hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the
northeast through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

 

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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

...OSCAR STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 58.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 58.3 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  The hurricane is forecast to
accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some slight strengthening is still possible
tonight and early Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.
Oscar is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low over the
north-central Atlantic by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

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Projected path currently puts this slightly more north today:

024458_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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3 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Projected path currently puts this slightly more north today:

024458_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Not bad for a mid Atlantic hurricane during late October / November... perhaps it could briefly become a major later on today?

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not bad for a mid Atlantic hurricane during November... perhaps it could briefly become a major later on today?

Doing wonders for the seasonal ACE total too. Matthew left us already above average and we should take 2011 soon. Only 2010, 2012, 2016 and 2017 are more active this decade.

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5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Doing wonders for the seasonal ACE total too. Matthew left us already above average and we should take 2011 soon. Only 2010, 2012, 2016 and 2017 are more active this decade.

Yeah a bit of an unusual season this year as well considering we have an El Nino event building up. The stronger this hurricane becomes, the more likely that it will track to the North of the UK.

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4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yeah a bit of an unusual season this year as well considering we have an El Nino event building up. The stronger this hurricane becomes, the more likely that it will track to the North of the UK.

Bear in mind however that the atmosphere has been somewhat neutral for large periods. We saw very little oceanic signalling in July and August (indeed weeklies went backwards). 

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Just now, summer blizzard said:

Bear in mind however that the atmosphere has been somewhat neutral for large periods. We saw very little oceanic signalling in July and August (indeed weeklies went backwards). 

That is true, the El Nino has been a bit sluggish this year to get going, similar to the 2004 and 1969 hurricane seasons.

If this El Nino is quick to pass (i.e declines during next Spring) then you have to wonder whether 2019 could yet be another active hurricane season... especially if a La Nina decides to form but that is still some time way. 

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4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

That is true, the El Nino has been a bit sluggish this year to get going, similar to the 2004 and 1969 hurricane seasons.

If this El Nino is quick to pass (i.e declines during next Spring) then you have to wonder whether 2019 could yet be another active hurricane season... especially if a La Nina decides to form but that is still some time way. 

If we can get a multi-year Nina then i'd look towards a very active season in 2020 as the QBO will be negative that season too (Nina plus -QBO seems the best combination). 

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Still potent with Sustained winds of 100mph

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 57.7 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
north-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days,
but Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over
the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday.
Edited by Dorsetbred

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The path of Oscar seems to have retrogressed slightly to the west of the UK, on the latest path prediction

cone graphic

time of arrival graphic

Edited by Dorsetbred

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