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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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8.5c to the 24th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average
1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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Sunny Sheffield at 7.6C bang on average, Rainfall 57.9mm 72.9% of the monthly average

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7.7c here to the 24th, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

39mm of rain so far.

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8.4c to the 25th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average
1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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On 24/11/2018 at 14:05, Scorcher said:

I said all along when the coldies were on here suggesting a below average month that this cold air just wasn't going to sustain itself until the end of the month.

It hasn't been all the cold anyway over the past few days- we've only had one air frost here. Today is a beautiful day here and pretty mild.

Next week we will probably have some days in the 'very mild' category before the month is out.

The setup was never going to allow for a prolonged spell of really cold weather. Amazingly I even heard 2010 mentioned a few times in the model thread. This spell is not even in the same league as the second half of November 2010!

Guilty! Well, it did look to me like it was possible when good charts were popping up regularly at D10-D15 - in all honesty, even if you look at the synoptic chart for T0, it was damn close, just needed the current Atlantic low not to stall ... but nothing's agreed until everything's agreed on the models, right ;) ?

Oh dear, I'm totally off topic. Sorry!

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Sunny Sheffield at 7.4C -0.1C below normal. Rainfall 61.6mm  77.6% of the monthly rainfall. 

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

8.3C to the 26th... +0.9 (5.4: -0.8)
8.2C to the 27th... +0.9 (6.0: +0.0)
8.2C to the 28th... +0.9 (8.0: +2.2)
8.2C to the 29th... +1.1 (10.5: +5.0)
8.2C to the 30th... +1.1 (7.0: +1.2)

A finish of 8.2C looks good, I doubt it will be more than 0.2C away from that before corrections. After corrections, anything down to the mid mid 7s to mid 8s is possible.

Nov26.thumb.JPG.ef7ecdef262c90a78dfe1beabbbdab07.JPG  Nov26MM.thumb.JPG.529bc3abdb6e13ab66e67ff90460c644.JPG

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Flirting with record high values on 29th, Diana is bringing some subtropical air north, just looking at Flores in the western Azores, wind south 20-30 knots, 19 C and heavy rain. 

I posted the provisional scoring for the EWP based on 100 mm (made it 99.9 mm to avoid a lot of ties that I will have to separate later). This means nothing much more than here's your score if the month finishes on 100 mm. Currently about 70 mm with all this rain coming in, should go to at least 90 if not 100. Those scores can be seen over in the quiet of the reading room, I mean the contest scoring thread. 

Of course the real scores will be posted when we have actual measurements. 

And the EWP contest will continue but "Hadley-only" for the next year, we will have to be more patient but otherwise it's less work for moi, and that is bon. 

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8.2c to the 26th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average
0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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Sunny Sheffield at 7.4C bang on average. Rainfall 62mm 78.1% of the monthly average. Should be up to average rainfall possibly beyond on the next few days which leave us with an average autumn temperature and rainfall wise. 

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Will be too low again with my CET now.  7.2C looked a realistic possibility a couple of weeks ago when the models were pointing towards a cold 2nd half of the month.  That soon evaporated!

Edited by Don

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3 hours ago, Don said:

Will be too low again with my CET now.  7.2C looked a realistic possibility a couple of weeks ago when the models were pointing towards a cold 2nd half of the month.  That soon evaporated!

6.0 C & 102 mm was my guess... I'd say you were a bit closer than I! 

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8.1c to the 27th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average
0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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Sunny Sheffield at 7.4C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall 75.5mm 95.1% of the monthly average. Looking like the average temperature will be around 7.3C so a mild month 

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21 hours ago, Don said:

Will be too low again with my CET now.  7.2C looked a realistic possibility a couple of weeks ago when the models were pointing towards a cold 2nd half of the month.  That soon evaporated!

It was never going to happen I'm afraid, quite a few people were getting excited on here but the setup was never there to sustain the cold until the end of the month. It was the usual hysteria in the model thread that caused all the hopecasting. I said it all along that it wasn't going to be cold enough to take us below average.

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7.4c here to the 27th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

48.2mm of rain so far.

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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

It was never going to happen I'm afraid, quite a few people were getting excited on here but the setup was never there to sustain the cold until the end of the month. It was the usual hysteria in the model thread that caused all the hopecasting. I said it all along that it wasn't going to be cold enough to take us below average.

Your cet prediction must be pretty close then, remind me what it was?

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DS said 7.3, last on-time entry (see p 3) ... the provisional number of 8.2 would be equal to two and below about five others out of however many we had, seventy? (forecasts).

Meanwhile, with this heavy rainfall moving in tonight and Thursday, could see my provisional estimate of 100 mm reached or even surpassed depending on how far east into the grid the rain proves to be heavy.

The daily record of 12.2 for 29th (set 200 yrs ago in 1818) is under slight threat, as to the most likely adjustment, I will say most likely to be 0.2 down from 8.3 at finish to 8.1. But I have a reason to be optimistic about that. ;)

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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23 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

DS said 7.3, last on-time entry (see p 3) ... the provisional number of 8.2 would be equal to two and below about five others out of however many we had, seventy? (forecasts).

Meanwhile, with this heavy rainfall moving in tonight and Thursday, could see my provisional estimate of 100 mm reached or even surpassed depending on how far east into the grid the rain proves to be heavy.

The daily record of 12.2 for 29th (set 200 yrs ago in 1818) is under slight threat, as to the most likely adjustment, I will say most likely to be 0.2 down from 8.3 at finish to 8.1. But I have a reason to be optimistic about that. ;)

 

Lost me here Roger, I know what my prediction was.

Scorcher must be very close with his entry..... if you read his truly insightful posts...........;)

So was asking him to remind me of his entry for November,  I reason it must be very close to the outcome.................

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Still any chance of me finishing number one in the rainfall contest - that was the projection a few days ago?

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4 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Lost me here Roger, I know what my prediction was.

Scorcher must be very close with his entry..... if you read his truly insightful posts...........;)

So was asking him to remind me of his entry for November,  I reason it must be very close to the outcome.................

It was just an answer to the previous poster's question, I was going to post the other info anyway so I added that on.

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31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still any chance of me finishing number one in the rainfall contest - that was the projection a few days ago?

I think anyone between 85 mm and 110 mm has a chance, so you are in the hunt for it. 

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8.2c to the 28th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average
1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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14 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Your cet prediction must be pretty close then, remind me what it was?

Completely irrelevant, all I've said is it wasn't going to end up below average. All a lot of you have been posting is about 'how low it's going to go' in this thread for 2 weeks now. Well we had a rise yesterday! Quite impressive so late in the month.

 

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