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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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How much could we possible drop though, I'm thinking a finish of about 7.5c could be possible but how cold could it actually get in the last 10 days?  Will be interesting to watch for sure.🤔

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Never came through yesterday around the normal time they had an issue again

9.9c to the 15th

2.4 above the 61 to 90 average
1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.9c to the 14th & 15th *No data received for the 10th*

If the past three months had ended mid month, it would have been one of the warmest autumns on record - as it stands, still a chance of the whole autumn being below average! 

I think 7s looks fairly safe bet now, just a question of which end. 

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Many GFS runs have had estimates below 7C primarily because there is a second push from all models around day 10. How quickly that arrives or gets displaced is the question.

At this stage 6.5-7.5 after corrections seems the strongest bet.

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Sunny Sheffield at 9C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged this being the first dry day of the month.

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Hadley EWP tracker was 54 mm after fourteen days, that value slightly above normal for the period, but with only small amounts showing until near the end of the month, it will likely fall below a running average soon. From today's 12z GFS run I would estimate 75 mm for the outcome but potential heavy rains showing near the end of the run so that could increase if those systems were to speed up. 

The 12z GFS has also reduced the severity of cold in the later parts of the month although it looks cool enough from Sunday on to drag the CET down below 8 before the 25th. At the moment I agree that somewhere around 7 looks good for the monthly value, however, I wonder how much the North Sea may warm up this easterly which will be cloudy so it can't do much in terms of severe overnight lows. 

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10.0c to the 16th

2.6 above the 61 to 90 average
1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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No change in Sunny Sheffield temperature wise 9C +0.5C degree above normal. Rainfall up to 30mm 37.8% of the monthly average. Looking at 00 oz showed cold days but night time temperatures generally above normal for the time year. I suspect this month will come out for us average and above in the CET zone.

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8.9c here to the 16th, 1.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

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Sunny Sheffield unchanged 9C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 30mm 37.8% of the monthly average. GFS still not suggesting anything to really bash the average figure so I expect a slow decline and odds on for an average month if not above here.

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How far the cet will drop to months end is probably reliant on clear nights.

imo.

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1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

How far the cet will drop to months end is probably reliant on clear nights.

imo.

At the moment the cloud seems to be an issue. Needs some dry air pumped into this high pressure.

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9.9c to the 17th

2.6 above the 61 to 90 average
1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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9.8c to the 18th

2.5 above the 61 to 90 average
1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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8.7c here to the 18th, 1.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

11.8mm of rain so far this month.

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11°C is the average here. Way above my own for November and 2.7°C above the derived met office average for this area.

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.9C +0.6C above average. Rainfall 30.1mm 37,9% of the monthly rainfall. With the models drifting away from the colder possibilities and a return to more average conditions it's unlikely we will end up below average here and probably end up being above average. 

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.7C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall 33.6mm 42.3% of average for the month.

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9.6c to the 19th

2.4 above the 61 to 90 average
1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 10.0c to the 16th *No data received for the 10th*

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8.4c here to the 20th, 1.2c above the 1981-2010 average. Further drops likely in the coming days.

Good top up of rain in the last 48 hours, now reading 31.8mm.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 8.5C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall now up to 48.3mm 60.8% of average rainfall for the month. GFS shows the cold spell lasting another six days however during the period night temperatures will tend to wards average values possibly above. So only the depressed day time temperatures keeping everything below average. This probably means only a slow change in averages for here with the night time possibly rising offsetting the fall in daytime temperatures. So we will probably end up just above for the month and below for rainfall. End result an average Autumn temperature wise and the same for rainfall.   

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I had an extra bit of info to add to today's CET report and (rather unusual) I don't see the daily report, so here it all is anyway ...

To the 20th, 9.4, which was 2.2 above the 1961-90 and 1.6 above the 1981-2010 running averages. 

This means 2018 is now tied 9th warmest (still sharing with 1852 and also now 1881 and 1982) in terms of running mean to 20th, down from tied 8th on the 16th (also with 1852) at the high point of 10.0. These were warmer at the 20th -- 1938 (11.2), 2015 (11.1), 1994 (10.7), 1978 (10.4), 2011 (10.1), 1817 (9.8), 1818 (9.7), 9.5 (2003) ... these are the same years that were warmer at the 16th except for 2003 which has replaced 1852 and 2018 for 8th place. I have the feeling that 2018 will lose ranks rather steadily and end up around 30th to 40th place eventually.  

I will make these stats available with the usual table of CET records and averages that I post around the 1st or 2nd, starting with next month, as I have now worked out formulae that give highest and lowest running means each day of the month. Of course for the 1st the extremes are the same as the daily records. Somewhat counter-intuitively, the lowest running mean for November was established on the 1st at 1.5, it never managed to get below that 1934 daily record (and yes there is a typo in the table earlier published, which had 1836 for Nov 1st, the date of record lows before November started, also the 1802 record (min 5th) quoted is actually 1801, and I found about half a dozen other errors in my tables mostly one per month so that first part of November must have been a particular lack of concentration ... anyway, the tables over in the historical section will all be updated with corrections applied starting around mid-December, as I can't get in there to edit and the whole thread needs a facelift with so many additional data notes near the end). Hopefully the errors have all been spotted, I used a somewhat more demanding cross-reference filter to check my years and it turned up the half dozen in need of a change. I think rest of Nov and all of Dec were okay, there's one coming up in January (a record high from 1848 turned out to be 1858).

These are highest and lowest running means for Nov 20 to 30, if you want to quote these too Summer Sun, just for reference. 

DATE ____ Max running CET ____ Min running CET (period 1772-2017)

_ 20 ______ 11.2 (1938) _________ 2.9 (1786)

_ 21 ______ 10.8 (1938) _________ 2.9 (1786)

_ 22 ______ 10.7 (1938) _________ 2.8 (1786)

_ 23 ______ 10.6 (1994) _________ 2.7 (1782)

_ 24 ______ 10.6 (1994) _________ 2.6 (1782)

_ 25 ______ 10.5 (1994) _________ 2.5 (1782)

_ 26 ______ 10.6 (1994) _________ 2.4 (1782)

_ 27 ______ 10.6 (1994) _________ 2.3 (1782)

_ 28 ______ 10.4 (1994) _________ 2.2 (1782)

_ 29 ______ 10.2 (1994) _________ 2.3 (1782)

_ 30 ______ 10.1 (1994) _________ 2.3 (1782)

______________________________________________________________________

Edited by Roger J Smith
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I suspect a finish in the low 8s might be the landing mark, possibly high 7s should we see some clearer skies at night allowing low temperatures. The rest of the month looks relatively cold, though could see a warm up before months end.

Another month returning a nosedive in the CET value latter third it seems.

 

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A little further east the anomalies are quite strongly negative, it was -35 in Manitoba last night. I suspect the anomaly is about +2 in most of BC and the western US as well. The El Nino pattern is taking shape. 

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