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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

No update again from Hadley so far today  

Ill let you know in a bit.

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.7C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall 25.9mm 32.6% of average.

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I think the question we all want to ask is how low will the CET start to go based on current outputs.

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I'll do a full update when I get the chance tomorrow, but the 12z has the CET peaking at about 10.0C around the 16th/17th, before dropping back to 9.4C by the 21st.
Already 1 day provisionally in the top 10 warmest (7th) with another 2 possible top 10s forecast for the 15th and 16th. Within the reliable time frame, the cool conditions only do enough to take us barely below the daily averages as we start the final 1/3 of the month.

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Agree with the above, and the current GFS output 22nd to 28th would average about 4.5 C, a bit below normal for the period, and that would drag the running CET down from the 9.4 estimate on 21st to about 8.2 C before adjustments. So if you're in the mid to high 7s probably in a good spot.

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9.6c to the 11th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.7c to the 7th *No data received for the 10th*

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9.7c to the 12th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.7c to the 7th & 12th *No data received for the 10th*

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.8C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall 26.9mm 33.9% of average.  If tonights GFS comes off a chance to end up below average. 

Edited by The PIT
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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

9.7C to the 13th... +1.3 (9.5: +2.3)
9.7C to the 14th... +1.4 (10.2: +3.4)
9.8C to the 15th... +1.6 (11.0: +4.2)
10.0C to the 16th.. +1.8 (12.1: +5.3)
9.9C to the 17th... +1.9 (9.4: +3.0)
9.8C to the 18th... +1.9 (8.0: +1.3)
9.6C to the 19th... +1.8 (6.7: +0.3)
9.5C to the 20th... +1.7 (5.8: -0.4)
9.2C to the 21st... +1.5 (3.8: -2.0)
8.9C to the 22nd... +1.4 (3.7: -2.1)

Looks like we'll bit the summit temperature wise around mid month, before descending into below average territory for the final third.

NOV12.thumb.JPG.96a3b8c1ea4f0b45b699cde014061d13.JPG  NOV12MM.thumb.JPG.7f015da3d12a3c540d8e66de8b002c24.JPG

For fun, the rest of the GFS would have the CET around dropping to the low 7s by the 28th.

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8.6c here to the 12th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

9.8mm so far this month.

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6 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

9.7C to the 13th... +1.3 (9.5: +2.3)
9.7C to the 14th... +1.4 (10.2: +3.4)
9.8C to the 15th... +1.6 (11.0: +4.2)
10.0C to the 16th.. +1.8 (12.1: +5.3)
9.9C to the 17th... +1.9 (9.4: +3.0)
9.8C to the 18th... +1.9 (8.0: +1.3)
9.6C to the 19th... +1.8 (6.7: +0.3)
9.5C to the 20th... +1.7 (5.8: -0.4)
9.2C to the 21st... +1.5 (3.8: -2.0)
8.9C to the 22nd... +1.4 (3.7: -2.1)

Looks like we'll bit the summit temperature wise around

For fun, the rest of the GFS would have the CET around dropping to the low 7s by the 28th.

Good because I went for 7.2C for November.  An outside chance for now, though.

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32 minutes ago, Don said:

Good because I went for 7.2C for November.  An outside chance for now, though.

Pretty confident we'll be near enough by months end. Whether we get the GFS 2010 2.0 or a static high pressure, both at this time of year will cull the CET significantly. 

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This is a slight reworking of an earlier post ... if it does stay mild to the 16th and verifies the trend forecast above by BFTV, then 2018 will share 8th place with 1852 in the honour roll of second half excursions above or equal to 10.0 for running CET. ... All seven of the others had a considerably higher running CET and lasted to at least the 19th if not longer (1994 lasted to the end). The 1852 mean was 7.9 meaning that the second half mean was about 6 C. This month could fall a bit more than that. The other members of this club stayed above 10 longer and include the five warmest Novembers (1994, 2011, 2015, 1818, 1938) as well as 1817 (finished 9.1) and 1978 (finished 8.5). In fact since 6th and 7th place Novembers 1730 and 1743 were before daily data and we don't know their running values at mid-month, the top six that we do know about were generally above 10 going into the last third basically. The winter of 1852-53 had quite a cold and snowy February. Otherwise the winters following this type of November have been rather average to mild in the case of 2015-16. 

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9.7c to the 13th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average
1.3 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.7c to the 7th, 12th & 13th *No data received for the 10th*

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.9C bang on average for the month. Rainfall 29.2mm 36.8% of the monthly average. Funnily enough it's rained every day this month but 22.9mm came in two days. 5 days with trace conditions.

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Sunny Sheffield at 9C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. 

Very unlikely that we will get an below average Autumn. The temperatures would have to really drop well below normal to the end of the month to have a chance of that. The latest runs don't really show that at the moment. 

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8.8c here to the 14th, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

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On 13/11/2018 at 20:16, Don said:

Good because I went for 7.2C for November.  An outside chance for now, though.

I think you'll be close 🙂

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On ‎09‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 20:43, DAVID SNOW said:

Cold  last third will knock the cet bandy.

Just for you MWB I posted this before the models went cold ...Hence my 7,3 😉

Fred (blast from the past)  is on the same track as me.:cold:

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Summer Sun didn't post his usual report, so this is it:

 

9.9c to the 14th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average
1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.9c to the 14th

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Looks like the last third of the month is going to chop off the value of the running CET yet again.

Seems to be a feature this year

February 21st: 3.8 ends 2.9

April 24th: 10.3  ends 9.8

August 22nd: 17.8C ends 16.6C

September 20th: 15.3C ends 13.7C

October 25th ~12.2C  ends 10.6C

Edited by Weather-history
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13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Summer Sun didn't post his usual report, so this is it:

 

9.9c to the 14th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average
1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.9c to the 14th

 

Never came through yesterday around the normal time they had an issue again

9.9c to the 15th

2.4 above the 61 to 90 average
1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.9c to the 14th & 15th *No data received for the 10th*

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