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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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Looks very zzzz -- zzzz -- zonal from now to end of GFS run, would be surprised if the CET escaped the 7 to 8 zone very far in either direction.

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8.5c to the 4th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 8.5c to the 4th

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12 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Looks very zzzz -- zzzz -- zonal from now to end of GFS run, would be surprised if the CET escaped the 7 to 8 zone very far in either direction.

Yes, i nearly pulled off the October CET - only about half a degree too low after looking gone for all money at one stage, it will take a monumental last 8 days of Nov to pull my 5.9 off this time, thats assuming the models are right for the next 2 weeks, that said though, it doesnt necessarily need a screaming NE flow to significantly lower the CET in the last week of Nov, a clear high at that time of year could easily bring some 0 or 1c max's in central England where fog is slow to clear, if you could get some overnight temps of -4 or -5c then it would only tale a week of that to shift it down.

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8.9c to the 5th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 8.9c to the 5th

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Looking at ECM ensembles - very little chance of a frost in the CET before mid-month, and daily maximums likely to be in double-figures throughout. I would have thought we'll be well above the 8C mark by mid-month, actually.

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I would agree looking at today's 12z GFS the most likely CET by 22nd at the end of its run would be 9.0 to 9.5 C. 

There are signs of a pattern change just after that, so it might take a tumble near the end (again). 

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Sunny Sheffield at 8C -1.8C below normal. Rainfall 0.4mm 0.5% of the monthly average so the low rainfall spell continues.

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7.8c here to the 5th, 0.5c below the 1981-2010 average.

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I can't see many falls coming in the CET any time soon. Nights remaining relatively mild and possibly milder again by day next week. The first half of the month looks odds on to me to end up above average.

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9.2c to the 6th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.2c to the 6th

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.5C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 2.4mm 3% of the monthly average. UKMO and ECM hinting to a pattern reset so if that comes up should be above average by this time next week.

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9.7c to the 7th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.7c to the 7th

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Given the current forecasts on the models, we could be looking at a record breaking month for sure. No true polar airmass whatsoever heading our way.

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Not sure that we are really looking at an exceptionally mild month. To get a really mild month you tend to need zonality and high minima. 

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9.6c to the 8th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.7c to the 7th

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7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Not sure that we are really looking at an exceptionally mild month. To get a really mild month you tend to need zonality and high minima. 

Looking at the charts for next week in particular, we could be looking at temps in the CET zone being around 15 to 17C which is of course quite exceptional for the middle of November. The lowish minimums could tamper it somewhat but there is definately no real signs of any frost in the near future. 

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8.6c here to the 8th, 0.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

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8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Not sure that we are really looking at an exceptionally mild month. To get a really mild month you tend to need zonality and high minima. 

If the GFS is correct tonight we are heading for a exceptionally mild first 20 days or so of the month. Minima will be high in the relatively strong southerly/southwesterly that is showing for much of the run, regardless of cloud cover. ECM maybe less so at the moment and could be cooler with a stronger high pressure influence.

The BBC forecast is suggesting high minima here all next week, nothing below 7/8C between Monday and Saturday and 12-14C all week by day. I imagine it could get a bit higher than that towards the end of the week as well.

Edited by Scorcher
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10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Not sure that we are really looking at an exceptionally mild month. To get a really mild month you tend to need zonality and high minima. 

Cold  last third will knock the cet bandy.

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

If the GFS is correct tonight we are heading for a exceptionally mild first 20 days or so of the month. Minima will be high in the relatively strong southerly/southwesterly that is showing for much of the run, regardless of cloud cover. ECM maybe less so at the moment and could be cooler with a stronger high pressure influence.

The BBC forecast is suggesting high minima here all next week, nothing below 7/8C between Monday and Saturday and 12-14C all week by day. I imagine it could get a bit higher than that towards the end of the week as well.

Its all looking a bit '2015' at the moment: very mild, extremely wet (in the west) and dull everywhere. Hopefully we get a calmer spell mid-month, though GFS and ECM aren't agreeing on that.

Edited by reef
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42 minutes ago, reef said:

Its all looking a bit '2015' at the moment: very mild, extremely wet (in the west) and dull everywhere. Hopefully we get a calmer spell mid-month, though GFS and ECM aren't agreeing on that.

Oh no, not another December 2015!!

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These are the warmest running CET values in November in the daily data period (1772 to 2017) ...

I have grouped them by years that held on to record highs in consecutive periods to make the post shorter. Of course the higher values are in the first half of the month but this table also lists all running CET values above 10.0 in the second half of the month (separate table added below the record values). 

DATES __ YEAR __ CET VALUE(S)

_ 01 ____1894, 1982 ___13.5

_ 02 ____1821, 1894 ___13.8

_ 03-05 _ 1894 ________13.6, 13.0, 12.7

_ 06 ____ 1996 _______ 12.2

_ 07-09 __1938 _______ 11.8, 11.8, 11.8

_10-12 __ 2015 _______ 11.8, 12.0, 11.9 (tie 1938)

_12-22 __ 1938 _______ 11.9 (tie 2015), 12.1, 12.2, 12.0, 11.9, 11.8, 11.6, 11.4, 11.2, 10.8, 10.7

_23-30 __ 1994 _______ 10.6, 10.6, 10.5, 10.6, 10.6, 10.4, 10.2, 10.1

_________________________________________

Years that had a running CET value of 10.0 or greater after 16th of month ...

1938 had its record string to 22nd above, then stayed above 10.0 to 26th with 10.5, 10.3, 10.2, 10.0. (ended up 9.4)

1994 began its string above 10.0 on the 4th, as to second half, 16th to 22nd were 10.5, 10.4, 10.4, 10.6, 10.7, 10.6, 10.5.

2015 stayed above 10.0 after its record string ran out on 12th, until 23rd. Values for 16-23 were 11.4, 11.4, 11.4, 11.3, 11.1, 10.7, 10.3, 10.0 ...

... ... the month ended up at 9.5 tied with 1818 which had running values above 10 as late as 19th (16-19 were 10.4, 10.3, 10.1, 10.0).

1978 was running very warm as late as the 25th. From 16-25, the running CET values were 10.3, 10.3, 10.4, 10.5, 10.4, 10.3, 10.4, 10.4, 10.4, 10.2

2001 was above 10.0 until the 22nd, from 16 to 22, the values are 10.3, 10.2, 10.3, 10.3, 10.1, 10.0, 10.0 (the month ended on 9.6).

So in terms of latest 10.0 date, the order would be 1994 (30th), 1938 (26th), 1978 (25th), 2015 (23rd), 2011 (22nd) with 1818 to the 19th.

These turn out to be the six latest occurrences with 1818 tied with 1817. The others listed in order of last dates of 10.0 running CET are:

1817 was 10.0 on 16th, 10.2 on 17th and 18th, and 10.0 on 19th.

1852 was 10.0 on the 16th (ended 7.9).

Some other years had 10.0 readings into the 11th-15th interval, such as 1898, 1899, 1947 and 2002. 

We wait to see where 2018 will end up in this pantheon of late autumn warmth. 

The lowest running CET values to 16th is 2.2 in 1919. This was its coldest point and the lowest running November CET in the data set except for two set on the first of the month (1.5 in 1934, 1.6 in 1926). ... ... Coldest November 1782 was only equal to that on 28th (ended on 2.3). 

 

 

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.6C -0.8C below average. Rainfall 25.3mm 31.9% of average monthly rainfall. Deep FI shows some very mild runs while ECM in lala land shows a deep pool of cold air over the continent. At the moment the theme seems to be sent on a mild month but this can all change.

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9.6c to the 9th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current low this month 6.8c to the 1st & 2nd

Current high this month 9.7c to the 7th

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Sunny Sheffield at 8.7C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall 25.3mm 31.9% of average for the month. 

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