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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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6.7 and 58mmfor me please

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On 19/10/2018 at 19:15, prolongedSnowLover said:

A colder and drier than normal November with 4.0c with 56mm for me please

Can I go for a wetter and milder 6.1c please with 74mm ?

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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8.4c and 64mm thanks

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7.0*C and 105 mm please. Not very interesting but the signals are very mixed so it may hide some considerable variation within the month... just like we've seen in many of them this year!

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7.2C and 80mm please.

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Nah changing mine to 7.5C and 65mm of rain

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Mild and slightly wetter than average:

7.9C and 102mm

 

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6.8c and 75mm

may be near average but can see some early lowland snowfall by months end turning more settled.

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7.4c and 94mm

Edited by J10

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Summary of the on-time forecasts:

CET forecasts (number in bracket shows order of last revised entry)

13.0 .. LG (24) ... 10.1 warmest in 1994

8.9 .. Blue (19) .. 8.4 viz (49) ... 8.2 RJS (33), syed (37)

8.0 KMan (42), daveh (60) .. 7.9 reef (57), metal (58) .. 7.8 LIS! (27)

7.7 stew (25), MWB (61) .. 7.6 star (20), dk3 (26), Froze (45), mulzy (51) .. 7.5 DR(S)NO (22), Pit (56)

7.4 Ste (2), Norr (36), BFTV (44), J10 (62) .. 7.3 stat fr (64), DSNOW (65) also mean 1988-2017 

7.2 virt (23), nwsnow (41), Don (55) .. 7.1 SB (6), damlaw (39), MBay (50) also mean 1981-2010

7.0 snowr (31), Sing (54) .. 6.9 SSun (30), MIA (43), sea60 (63) _ consensus

6.8 pegg (4), TJM14 (8), Dami (14), SLE (35), Dan* (59) .. 6.7 EdS (10), sundog (38), jon (46)

6.6 Godb (32), BFTP (53) .. 6.5 DRL (11), DWW (16) .. 6.4 w26 (12)

6.3 TWS (9), WWS (21) ... 6.2 Rad D (7) ... 6.1 Kirk (13), nn2013 (29), Mark N (34), PSL (47)

6.0 JeffC (17), w-h (52) ... 5.9 snowy (15), feb91 (40) ... 5.8 Bobd (5)

5.7 PG (3) .. 5.4 CPS (1), Leo97t (18) ..  5.3 Opt P (28) .. 5.2 cold (48)

2.3 coldest in 1782

_________________

consensus (median value) of 65 on-time forecasts 6.9 C

======================================================

EWP forecasts (order of entry does not affect scoring)

200.0 LG .. 179.0 Ste ... 140.0 virt ... 132.0 stew ...130.0 nn2013

125.0 RJS .. 124.0 star ...122.0 TWS .. 120.0 syed ... 112.0 w26 ... 110.0 Godb

106.0 Mark N ...105.0 Sing .. 102.0 JeffC, reef .. 100.0 feb91

 99.0 dk3 ... 97.0 EdS, mean 1988-2017 ... 96.5 mean 1981-2010

 95.0 DR(S)NO .. 90.0 LIS ... 

 89.0 stat fr ... 87.0 PG .. 81.0 Norr .. (con 80.5) .. 80.0 SLE, Don

 79.0 daveh, sea60 .... 78.0 BFTV .. 77.0 DSNOW ... 76.0 Rad D

 75.0 w-h, dan* .. 74.0 PSL, J10 ... 70.0 MIA ..  68.0 CPS ... 65.0 Pit

 64.0 viz ... 60.0 BFTP ... 58.0 Dami, jon ... 55.4 Kirk ..

 50.0 pegg24, DRL ... 46.0 bobd ... 38.0 TJM14

_________________________________

consensus of 46 on-time forecasts 80.5 mm. 

 

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