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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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Warmest most forgettable November out was 1994 at 10.1c and mostly dull.

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Rest in pieces miserable "autumn" 2018!  13C  :(  Last sub 3C November in 1915.  Last sub 4C November in 1925.  Last sub 5C November in 1993.  Last sub 6C November in 2016.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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7.7c 132mm (wet)

Edited by stewfox

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7.6c and 99mm please 

Edited by Dkeane3

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On 19/10/2018 at 18:54, LetItSnow! said:

4.7 and 72.0mm please.

I would like to change my original guess and go for 7.8 and 90mm as my ultimate guess.

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for  November my guess is 9.5c and rain 120mm. thanks.

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Only short-lived periods of mild weather expected. Perhaps 1:3 Mild to cold.

5.3°c and the coldest for 9 years.

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I think fairly good chances of extreme mild or extreme cold this month ... so I'll plop in the middle. 7.2C please.

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8.2 and 125 mm 

___________________________________

note: the EWP contest will continue next contest year, but with just the Hadley stats used for guidance and scoring ... I started out that way, then bailed on Hadley in February when they were slow reporting and I learned about the existence of the other (NCIC) set of data. However, it's going to reduce the amount of work for me and for you to read the two reports, so let's go with just Hadley in 2018-19, they produce running totals in real time so we can track the progress and give provisional end of month scores if we are waiting. 

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Going for 10.5C and 65mm of rain.

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 changing my prediction to 8.2c and 120 mm rain thank you 

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6.7c for me please

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Going for 10.5C and 65mm of rain.

Warmest November on record.  That would not be good...

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A month of two halves possibly? A milder first half cancelling out a colder second half.. so lets go near average on 7.1 degrees, a little above, Suspect the first half will stay preety changeable with a mild atlantic feed, then anticyclonic with a possible notable cold interlude before the month is out, but not enough to cancel out consistent mild weather at the start.

One month that did just the above was 2005, started off very mild, turned anticyclonic and frosty mid month with a cold northerly later on.

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5.9c and 100mm of rainfall please.

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