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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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Well, for the first time since I've been looking at both versions of EWP, Hadley has beaten NCIC to the posting of a final figure. So while I have a table ready to post from any final NCIC figure, the table will need some editing for Hadley even though it's just 0.5 mm higher than the value I used to create the NCIC table. 

The Hadley posting is 104.4 mm

Will be working on both sets of tables now but I will refrain from announcing anything more than this:

Based on 104.4 mm, these are the ten highest scores for December:

1 _ Singularity ______ 105.0 mm ___10.0 (error +0.6 mm)

2 _ Mark Neal. ______106.0 mm ____9.8 (error +1.6 mm)

T3_ JeffC, Reef _____102.0 mm ____9.6 (error --2.4 mm)

5 _ Feb1991Blizzard _ 100.0 mm ___ 9.2 (error --4.4 mm)

6 _ dKeane3 ________ 99.0 mm ___ 9.0 (error --5.4 mm)

7 _ Godber.1 _______ 110.0 mm ___ 8.8 (error +5.6 mm)

8* _EdStone _________97.0 mm ___ 8.6 (error --7.4 mm)

9* _weather26 _______112.0 mm ___ 8.4 (error +7.6 mm)

10_ Dr(S)No _________95.0 mm ___ 8.2 (error --9.4 mm)

* The 1988-2017 average also 97.0 mm was T-8, and 1981-2010 average of 96.5 mm ranked 10th not affecting lower ranked forecasters.

 

In the Hadley version annual contest final scoring then, these would be the top dozen finishers:

1. Singularity __________ 88.9 points

2. Don ________________ 77.5

3. J10 _________________76.2

4. Jonboy ______________75.7

5.* Dr(S)No_____________72.1

6. Midlands Ice Age ______71.7

7. Polar Gael ___________ 70.7

8. Reef ________________68.9

9. Norrance ____________ 68.8

10 Mulzy ______________ 66.8

11 Radiating Dendrite ____ 66.3

12 Seaside60 __________ 66.0

(13 syed2878 __ 65.8)

________________________________

* consensus finished on 74.7, ranked 5th also ... normals will rank around 10th and 14th, see final table posting for details.

I won't be able to post full scoring tables until NCIC report and I can clear off that set of tables from my reply window. 

Hoping NCIC pops soon, then I can report on that (official contest results, this Hadley version is considered alternate this year). 

 

Congratulations to Singularity for finishing the year in style -- and I'm quite sure he will top the official NCIC scoring as well. 

 

 

 

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NCIC have now reported 100.3 as their November 2018 amount. 

This is the link to the scoring tables, forming the official contest final scoring summary. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10

 

The top twelve scores for November, with ties in 12th place:

 

RANK __ FORECASTER ________ F'cast ___ Error ____ Points

_ 01 ____ FEB1991BLIZZARD ____ 100.0 ___ --0.3 ____ 10.0

_ 02 ____ DKEANE3 _____________ 99.0 ___ --1.3 _____ 9.8

_T03 ____JEFF C, REEF _________ 102.0 ___ +1.7 _____ 9.6 each

_ 05 ____ EDSTONE _____________ 97.0 ___ --3.3 _____ 9.2

(T05) ___ average 1988-2017 ______ 97.0 ___ --3.3 _____ 9.2

_ (06) ___ average 1981-2010 ______ 96.5 ___ --3.8 _____ 9.1

_ 06 ____ SINGULARITY _________105.0 ___ +4.7 _____ 9.0

_ 07 ____ DR(S)NO ______________ 95.0 ___ --5.3 _____ 8.8

_ 08 ____ MARK NEAL. __________ 106.0 ___ +5.7 _____ 8.6

_ 09 ____ J10 ___________________ 94.0 ___ --6.3 _____ 8.4

_ 10 ____ GODBER.1 ____________ 110.0 ___ +9.7_____ 8.2

_ 11 ____ LET IT SNOW! __________ 90.0 ___-10.3_____ 8.0

_T12 ____STATIONARY FRONT, MULZY__89.0 ___--11.3_____ 7.7 each

 

... and the top twelve for the annual scoring report ...

 

Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov __TOTAL_ previous rank

 

_01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2 _7.7 _5.0 _7.5_ 9.0__ 88.4 ____ 01

_02 __  J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 _5.4 _8.8 _2.6 _8.4 __ 78.1 ____ 02

_(03)__consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 _5.5 _6.0 _7.5 _7.1 __ 75.4 ____ (06)

_03 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3_10.0 _3.0 _6.5 _6.5 __ 75.8 ____T03

_04 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.1 _9.5 _7.2 _8.8 __ 75.5 ____ 07 

_05 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 _2.1 _8.0 _0.2 _7.1 __ 74.3 ____ 06

_06 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.7 _7.0 _9.6 _3.5 __ 72.8 ____T03

_07 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 _4.4 _7.8 _5.2 _1.8 __ 70.3 ____ 05

_08 __ REEF __________________ 9.0 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0_10.0_5.4 _3.8 _7.2 _9.6 __ 69.1 ____ 12

_(09) _ average 1981-2010 _______7.5 _6.4 _5.3 _5.0 _2.6 _6.4 _3.2 _1.4_10.0_9.9 _1.3 _9.1 __ 68.1 ____ (13)

_09 __ NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 _6.4 _6.0 _2.6 _6.1 __ 67.9 ____ 09

_10 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ___ 2.0 _2.4 _8.7 _4.5 _2.0 _7.8 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 _9.8 _4.2 _4.8 __ 67.6 ____ 08

_11 __ MULZY _________________7.0 _8.6 _6.7 _0.9 _1.8 _8.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 _3.0 _8.6 _7.7 __ 67.3 ____ 11

_(12)_ average 1988-2017 (D 87-16) _7.9_7.5 _3.9 _3.4_2.4 _6.4 _2.4 _1.1 _9.0 _9.7 _3.6 _9.2__ 66.5 ____ (15)

_12 __ DAVID SNOW____________ 2.2 _3.3 _8.6 _5.7 _5.4 _2.2 _7.0 _4.5 _9.8 _1.8 _9.4 _5.2 __ 65.1 ____ 10

_____________________________________________________________________________

Congratulations to SINGULARITY for winning this first annual EWP contest with a healthy margin of ten points over J10 in second place.

Our group consensus scored third, along with Don. 

I hope you all enjoyed this first contest for precipitation forecasts. The Hadley version will be posted shortly, same link, I am working on it now.

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