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Roger J Smith

November 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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__________________ _ _ _ 

This month is the final stage of the 2017-18 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !!

 

C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November

15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)
14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994

 9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011
 9.5 ... tied third warmest Nov 1818 and 2015
 9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938
 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743

 9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730

 9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817

 8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881 

 8.7 ... tied tenth warmest Nov 1939 and 2009

 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2014 (with 1821)

 8.5 ... ... ... ... 2002
 8.4 ... ... ... ... 1997

 8.1 ... ... ... ... 2003, 2006

 8.0 ... ... ... ... 1982, 1984

 7.9 ... ... ... ... 1999

 7.8 ... ... ... ... 1981, 1986

 7.7 ... ... ... ... 1995, 2004

 7.6 ... ... ... ...

 7.5 ... ... ... ... 1983, 2001  ,.. ... ... ---- average of 2001-2017 ----

 7.4 ... ... ... ... 1992 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1991-2017 ----

 7.3 ... ... ... ... 2007 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1988-2017 ----

 7.2 ... ... ... ... 

 7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ---- average of 1981-2010 ----

 7.0 ... ... ... ... 2000, 2008
 

 6.9 ... ... ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1971-2000 ----

 6.8 ... ... ... ... 1991, 2012, 2017
 6.7 ... ... ... ...

 6.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1961-1990 ----
 6.5 ... ... ... ... 1987 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1901-2000 ----

 6.4 ... ... ... ...

 6.3 ... ... ... ...

 6.2 ... ... ... ... 1989, 1998, 2005, 2013
 6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2017 ---- (6.07)

 6.0 ... ... ... ...

 5.9 ... ... ... ... 1996 ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1801-1900 ----
 5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......   ---- average of 1701-1800 ----
 5.6 ... ... ... ... 2016 ... ... ...... ...  ---- average of 1659-1700 ----

 5,2 .... coldest since 1993 were  1988, 2010 (tied 90th coldest)

 4.6 .... coldest since 1985 was 1993 (tied 52nd coldest)
 4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985

 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923

 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910

 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851

 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684
 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

--0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)

--2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
--4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904)
__________________________________________________
colour coded warmest, average and coldest since 1981 -- due to ties, 12, 14 and 11 shown. 
daily records are for the period 1772 to 2017
monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2017

Enter your CET forecast by Wednesday October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November.

===============================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2018

__ contest is scored using NCIC posted amount, alternate scoring for Hadley posted amount also available __

__ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __

 

202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2017 (Hadley) ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903

200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest (Hadley) ... also third wettest month overall

196.9 mm __ 1929 _ wettest 1910-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 195.9 mm (1940 was wettest there at 196.5)

191.2 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981 (NCIC) ... Hadley was 192.1 mm

 97.0 mm __ mean for 1988-2017 ... Hadley mean 101.9 mm

 96.5 mm __ mean for 1981-2010 ... Hadley mean 100.4 mm

 47.8 mm __ 1988 _ driest since 1981 (NCIC) ... Hadley was 50.2 mm (also driest)

 23.1 mm ___1805 _ driest 1766-1909 (Hadley) ... second driest 1766-2017 (Hadley)

 17.9 mm ___1945 _ driest 1910-2017 (NCIC series) ... Hadley was 17.0 mm (driest also 1766-2017)

___________________________ ** __________________________

Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines except all are extended by three hours (to 0300h 4 Nov for absolute cutoff).

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7.4c and 179mm please

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5.7C and 87mm for me please. 

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6.8c 50mm please 

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Do feel it will be mostly a dry month in general with the Atlantic staying in bed. Will go for 6.4*C please. 50mm rain/snowfall. 

Scottish hills snowfall days: 8

Northern UK snowfall days: 5

Midlands snowfall days: 2

South of the M4 snowfall days: Just a tiny bit of hill sleet

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I shall go for another close to average bout at 7.1C.

I dont think the settled/cold spell lasts beyond about the 5th however i do expect another bout of blocking to our north in the final third.

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A fairly cold (by recent standards) and cyclonic November, CET 6.3C, rainfall 122mm.  I expect it to be colder than average early and late in the month with a milder interlude in the middle.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers

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I'll guess at 6.7C and 97mm please...

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If it’s okay, would like to change my guess to 6.5*C please. Tar!

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Coolish First Week and Colder last week with a Milder interlude and more wetter than snowny throughout so 6.4C and 112mm 

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6.8 c and  58mm

 

Edited by Dami

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5.9c looks a different November coming this year.

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6.0 C & 102 mm please

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My guess is an unsettled month - let's say 7.6C and 124mm.

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I'll have a go for once. 6.3c please. I'll not bother with a rainfall prediction though, if that's ok.

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