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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters updated 

steady as she goes - up to day 10, no one cluster seems large enough to discount any solution - though the non high lat blocking one is notable by its  low percentage ......

 

Brilliant stuff!!gfs control looks a peach aswell up to 264 hours so far!!very cold easterly across england and then looks like we about to get even colder from the north east!!

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Trust me, that's not a tropospheric vortex that's about to set up shop for the duration. More the exact opposite, particularly when you look at what's going on in the stratosphere.  Think lorries

It's a pity the debate broke down a bit on here today - there were some interesting points made and I'll stick to these. Tamara is fundamentally right - the blocking pattern that is emerging for

Convectively coupled tropical wave passage through the Indian Ocean ... check. Resultant spike in the Asian Jet and introduction of westerlies on the back equatorward momentum transport...G

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Anyone looking at the GEFS 6z ens trickling our . Is it gonna be a good set ? 

Oh yes! - its an upgrade - and dont forget we were already coming off a high base with a big upgrade on the 0z - graph should look stunning - more like a mid winter suite, not a Nov one.

 

How about a mean NNE flow at 300+ with the -6c isotherm only just in the North sea.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes! - its an upgrade - and dont forget we were already coming off a high base with a big upgrade on the 0z - graph should look stunning - more like a mid winter suite, not a Nov one.

Yer cheers feb , just as I posted Steve posted that mean . Well busy at work today so couldn’t look myself . Haven’t really got time to post this but I can’t contain my excitement ?

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37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not on the epic scale of the 18Z (how could it be?) but something akin to 2010 is looking ever more likely:

Netweather GFS Image

Excellent charts this morning...!!...lets see what the roller coaster has to offer over the next few days!!...I'd take a re-run of 2010 any day !?

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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Everything working in tandem.

 

temp4.png

MT8_London_ens (4).png

Fantastic and also a chance for the colder air to be slightly colder and set in a bit earlier from the east by a day or so!!operational seems on the higher side of the ensembles between 19 and 21st!!also we wana get rid of those dirty milder 850s shown between the 21st and 24th!!expect more upgrades on the 12zs?

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Although i remain cautious some of these outputs are near perfect. The Euro at day 10 especially is absolutely spectacular with low uppers on the way, already low heights and the high well to the north, it's the first output that would probably suggest weeks of persistent blocking. 

ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bloomin Nora, Stone the Crows, where do you start with all this!! The output is absolutely top of the class this morning!!

First this developing Icelandic High on the GFS. Op run = 1050mb at D9!! Mean = 1035mb at D10, and still 1030mb by D12/D13!! These are huge figures!!

gfs-0-210.png?6  gens-21-1-240.png  gens-21-1-300.png

Remember a static Icelandic High is pretty much a guarantee of cold air filtering down from the Arctic into Scandi and then NW Europe more generally - the best scenario for cold at this time of year imo.

Onto the GFS Parallel. D8: uppers down below -8C. This will be snow in the SE.

gfs-0-192.png?6  gfs-1-192.png?6

The cold feed gets lost for a couple of days but is back by D15

gfs-0-360.png?6

And the ECM ... Nearly as good. At D10 - 1035mb op Icelandic High, 1030mb mean Scandi High - wouldn't have been disappointed with such a chart when I woke up this morning.

ECM1-240.GIF?13-12  EDM1-240.GIF?13-12

On the clusters ...can't really do much better than this at D8. Clusters 2/3 have an excellent alignment of heights to bring more cold in from the east, and clusters 1/4 have potential for the same with small adjustments.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111300_192.

And by D13, it's an 85/15 split in favour of northern heights anomalies, which is a significant amount.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018111300_300. 

A November 2010 re-run is not a ridiculous suggestion based upon this output.

Although i cannot quite believe i am saying this, i actually agree with your later thought. If the Euro at day 10 is our output then it's not hyperbole to suggest a stonking cold spell would be apparent with no immediate likely end. 

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not surprisingly the extended eps now show some ice days for London at the back end of the run - whether these are the result of deep cold or stagnant inversion - unknown 

A number (havent counted but at least 5 - maybe nearer to 10 members) show the -7 or -8c isotherm clipping the E / SE with about 3 or 4 near or lower than -9c - member number 2 the best.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Well this model output at the moment should come with a government health warning. As my parents used to say to me. If something is too true to be believed then it probably is. Think I will remain on the fence for a few more days yet. 

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13 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well this model output at the moment should come with a government health warning. As my parents used to say to me. If something is too true to be believed then it probably is. Think I will remain on the fence for a few more days yet. 

Hi terrier 

It’s very hard not to believe tho when we have this from the ECM -FCBFF9D4-D694-4475-85B2-534806CC488E.thumb.png.99a3aeac2d092fa9621e8e32ed7d6e26.png

This from the GFS 4A318D40-A4A1-4961-9AF2-460A0EB6787D.thumb.png.2a2165eb1ea359d824d712c70a862d12.png

These GEFS ensembles-F3AEB96C-9318-4037-8375-934E111FD153.thumb.png.d3eb8c0e57d2d2084fcb090beba70d47.png

The ECM ensembles (can’t post them but there good ) . The METO updates are also getting there . If we can’t believe now , well than we never can . ?

 

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Although the models look good at the moment is anyone able to explain how it might not go the way is being forecasted. What likely scenarios might occur from where we are now that means that cold and possible snow might not happen?

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