Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters updated 

steady as she goes - up to day 10, no one cluster seems large enough to discount any solution - though the non high lat blocking one is notable by its  low percentage ......

 

Brilliant stuff!!gfs control looks a peach aswell up to 264 hours so far!!very cold easterly across england and then looks like we about to get even colder from the north east!!

[ICE COLD]

Anyone looking at the GEFS 6z ens trickling out . Is it gonna be a good set ? 

Edited November 13, 2018 by ICE COLD

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Anyone looking at the GEFS 6z ens trickling our . Is it gonna be a good set ? 

Oh yes! - its an upgrade - and dont forget we were already coming off a high base with a big upgrade on the 0z - graph should look stunning - more like a mid winter suite, not a Nov one.

 

How about a mean NNE flow at 300+ with the -6c isotherm only just in the North sea.

Edited November 13, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes! - its an upgrade - and dont forget we were already coming off a high base with a big upgrade on the 0z - graph should look stunning - more like a mid winter suite, not a Nov one.

Yer cheers feb , just as I posted Steve posted that mean . Well busy at work today so couldn’t look myself . Haven’t really got time to post this but I can’t contain my excitement

[Glacier Point]

In the longer term, the interest will be what sort of feedback we can reasonably assume from a large injection of cold air across western Eurasia. Expectation would be for an anomalous Siberian High to develop, possibly in tandem with a Scandinavian ridge.

06z and 00z GEFS and 00z EPS notably more pronounced than recent GFS ops with the warmth and degree of displacement at 10 hPa over the Pole.

[weirpig]

  seen worse

[K9]

37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not on the epic scale of the 18Z (how could it be?) but something akin to 2010 is looking ever more likely:

Excellent charts this morning...!!...lets see what the roller coaster has to offer over the next few days!!...I'd take a re-run of 2010 any day !

[tight isobar]

Everything working in tandem.

 

Edited November 13, 2018 by tight isobar

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Everything working in tandem.

 

Fantastic and also a chance for the colder air to be slightly colder and set in a bit earlier from the east by a day or so!!operational seems on the higher side of the ensembles between 19 and 21st!!also we wana get rid of those dirty milder 850s shown between the 21st and 24th!!expect more upgrades on the 12zs

[karlos1983]

Pretty stonking Anomoly chart from GEFS

Iceland the epicentre for heights! Perfec  

[Mucka]

 This thread has moved fast 

Forgive if I missed it and this has already been posted but my main take from this mornings output is that now all 3 major models go for the undercut around day 7 which is a core part of why we are seeing the Atlantic ridging further West and a more convincing retrograde pattern in FI

If this is to be the case then it not only improves the prospect of cold but also brings it forward a few days since we don't need to wait for further attempts.

Nothing set in stone but today's output is definitely moving in the right direction so far if you want a chance of early snow..

Edited November 13, 2018 by Mucka

[Iceaxecrampon]

Beast from the East on it's way apparantly?

Blocking going to take some shifting up to T+360

[summer blizzard]

Although i remain cautious some of these outputs are near perfect. The Euro at day 10 especially is absolutely spectacular with low uppers on the way, already low heights and the high well to the north, it's the first output that would probably suggest weeks of persistent blocking. 

[Man With Beard]

Bloomin Nora, Stone the Crows, where do you start with all this!! The output is absolutely top of the class this morning!!

First this developing Icelandic High on the GFS. Op run = 1050mb at D9!! Mean = 1035mb at D10, and still 1030mb by D12/D13!! These are huge figures!!

    

Remember a static Icelandic High is pretty much a guarantee of cold air filtering down from the Arctic into Scandi and then NW Europe more generally - the best scenario for cold at this time of year imo.

Onto the GFS Parallel. D8: uppers down below -8C. This will be snow in the SE.

  

The cold feed gets lost for a couple of days but is back by D15

And the ECM ... Nearly as good. At D10 - 1035mb op Icelandic High, 1030mb mean Scandi High - wouldn't have been disappointed with such a chart when I woke up this morning.

  

On the clusters ...can't really do much better than this at D8. Clusters 2/3 have an excellent alignment of heights to bring more cold in from the east, and clusters 1/4 have potential for the same with small adjustments.

And by D13, it's an 85/15 split in favour of northern heights anomalies, which is a significant amount.

 

A November 2010 re-run is not a ridiculous suggestion based upon this output.

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bloomin Nora, Stone the Crows, where do you start with all this!! The output is absolutely top of the class this morning!!

First this developing Icelandic High on the GFS. Op run = 1050mb at D9!! Mean = 1035mb at D10, and still 1030mb by D12/D13!! These are huge figures!!

    

Remember a static Icelandic High is pretty much a guarantee of cold air filtering down from the Arctic into Scandi and then NW Europe more generally - the best scenario for cold at this time of year imo.

Onto the GFS Parallel. D8: uppers down below -8C. This will be snow in the SE.

  

The cold feed gets lost for a couple of days but is back by D15

And the ECM ... Nearly as good. At D10 - 1035mb op Icelandic High, 1030mb mean Scandi High - wouldn't have been disappointed with such a chart when I woke up this morning.

  

On the clusters ...can't really do much better than this at D8. Clusters 2/3 have an excellent alignment of heights to bring more cold in from the east, and clusters 1/4 have potential for the same with small adjustments.

And by D13, it's an 85/15 split in favour of northern heights anomalies, which is a significant amount.

 

A November 2010 re-run is not a ridiculous suggestion based upon this output.

Although i cannot quite believe i am saying this, i actually agree with your later thought. If the Euro at day 10 is our output then it's not hyperbole to suggest a stonking cold spell would be apparent with no immediate likely end. 

[bluearmy]

Not surprisingly the extended eps now show some ice days for London at the back end of the run - whether these are the result of deep cold or stagnant inversion - unknown 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not surprisingly the extended eps now show some ice days for London at the back end of the run - whether these are the result of deep cold or stagnant inversion - unknown 

A number (havent counted but at least 5 - maybe nearer to 10 members) show the -7 or -8c isotherm clipping the E / SE with about 3 or 4 near or lower than -9c - member number 2 the best.

 

Edited November 13, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[karlos1983]

De Bilt going pretty cold!!

Oh at last, London ENS are back on weathercast  

And they look decent to me

Edited November 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

Some of the recent runs remind me a little of this, though the evolution, to an Atlantic-Greenland ridge (should one develop) is clearly somewhat different. As Herman's Hermits might say: we're into something good...?

[terrier]

Well this model output at the moment should come with a government health warning. As my parents used to say to me. If something is too true to be believed then it probably is. Think I will remain on the fence for a few more days yet. 

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

  seen worse

When four became six, two more runs refuse to get the colder upper air in when compared to the 0z. 

But on the other hand the colder options are colder.

 

[ICE COLD]

13 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well this model output at the moment should come with a government health warning. As my parents used to say to me. If something is too true to be believed then it probably is. Think I will remain on the fence for a few more days yet. 

Hi terrier 

It’s very hard not to believe tho when we have this from the ECM -

This from the GFS 

These GEFS ensembles-

The ECM ensembles (can’t post them but there good ) . The METO updates are also getting there . If we can’t believe now , well than we never can .

 

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Not very often you get a chart like this in November. Basically, showing the sinking of the Arctic Front as the flow becomes more meridional ( see above post ) If it turns out correct, well done to Fred for his NEly prediction of a front loaded winter. Extreme cold in the making on this run. Will get an update from our experts when they get their results rom their own single model. Wow.

C

A sight for cold eyes, this chart below showing 528 dam line pushing into The British Isles from the NE behind the Arctic Front. Just look at the extent of that cold mass development to the North and East.. This chart if it comes off will have a big Wow factor alright.  

C

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

A sight for cold eyes, this chart below showing 528 dam line pushing into The British Isles from the NE behind the Arctic Front. Just look at the extent of that cold mass development to the North and East.. This chart if it comes off will have a big Wow factor alright.  

C

Indeed it would. Scandinavia will be utterly buried from that, given the relatively warm Baltic Sea and Atlantic temps, and Europe will quickly start to see some potentially record breaking cold once it sets in and settles. 

Quite astonshing charts for November really. The Christmas markets around Europe will seem that bit more magical too as a result 

[Coopsy]

Although the models look good at the moment is anyone able to explain how it might not go the way is being forecasted. What likely scenarios might occur from where we are now that means that cold and possible snow might not happen?