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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
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If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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I'm holding back until i see how bad the downgrade is, if any!

Nonetheless a brilliant set of charts, cold easterly next week with some snow for the S / SE and then setting things up nicely for December.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

    Yes, I’ve said before that these charts indicate the amount of snow that falls and then accumulated everything. So In marginal situations the depth is very inaccurate. Over the last few years I’ve found it fairly accurate (when used at short range) at forecasting snow fall. 

    Yes I too seem to recall it was fairly good at very short range in terms of locating snow areas... but not good at mid range. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Here's the 00Z T384 chart, for comparison...Is that a 'spoiler low' just off SE Greenland? Of course it isn't!

    Netweather GFS Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    19 hours ago, carinthian said:

    Lovely mild sunny day in the Katschberg. This view today  towards The Pollatal Valley with snow covered Rot Gulden Mountain in the background. A bit of a change this time next week looking at that chart from GFS showing a Westward propagating trough moving through Europe ( hence , I suppose our forecast of snow ) see above post. Bit of a disagreement between ECM and GFS as to the progress and direction of this development out of Russia. Maybe tonight runs will indicate if this is going to affect the British Isles.

    C

    untitled.png

    45970605_10156959640338628_4489092366010941440_n.jpg

    Morning all. Another mild day here , current temp at 2000m is 10c. However, forecast freezing level down to 1500m by Saturday morning. Just spoke to our experts and they are surprised at the speed of the Westward propagating trough caused  by cold advection as shown by the H Res ECM chart at early as 144t. Sort of also backed up by the UKMO model at the same time that indicates a localised area of low pressure to form near to SW  Britain. Their own model does not have a cluster of results to view but indicates a rather slower advection of the colder air towards the British Isles with continued development of a  strong cell of high pressure between Southern Scandinavia and Iceland. Longer term , ridging towards the Arctic indicate that Britain may have to wait for route to cold from the NE as they also think a more meridional flow to develop . Their model will get an update later today.

    C

    gh500_20181113_00_144.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Horrible output if you like mild weather !

    Right who hacked the overnight models ?

    Some great output to start the day and an upgrade from last night . I’m not sure we should be drawing comparisons with 2010 though , that was truly exceptional and there’s a long way to go .

    The interest in the shorter term is whether the forecast cold pool could support some snow . At this range the 850s are liable to change so you never know !

    As it stands with a cold pool 850 temps of -6 or -7 from a drier continental source do you think it supports snowfall?you would think it should be fine especially with the cold pool coming from europe or  has the recent warm weather played a big part!!ive seen snow fall with upper air temps of -4 from the east before!!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    7 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Lets hope for an upgrade slightly on the easterly on the gfs 06z then a full blown greenland high!!

    Mid run to 144 & colder uppers to the east ...

    -6 has now transitioned to pockets of -8c

    F4BF9369-B891-49EA-8A3D-D58D750DE7D1.thumb.png.5e0ae36b7d16cc3f90ba8c2c260ac4c8.png

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Cracking charts this morning. The PV seems to be punch drunk 

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Mid run to 144 & colder uppers to the east ...

    -6 has now transitioned to pockets of -8c

    F4BF9369-B891-49EA-8A3D-D58D750DE7D1.thumb.png.5e0ae36b7d16cc3f90ba8c2c260ac4c8.png

    S

    Steve is that also a pocket of -10 that i see approaching the netherlands?!!wow!!!!!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Block much stronger, pressure building towards Greenland. 

    gfs-0-162.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Yess ^^

    Remember the magical 10c line switches on the snow machine!

    340EC9DC-987D-4D05-91AA-7E59BE5DEA29.thumb.png.10147c782b0c37c39283af4db071d5d5.png

    Hmmm high needs to be further north maybe!!in that sense ecm was perfect!!still beggars cant be choosers i guess!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

    Well at least whatever happens in the next few weeks, it'll feel seasonal!

    Gone will be the double digit Temps after this week and say hello to 5's and 6's as we go on towards the end of November. With just the hint of wintry stuff in the air along with cold rain, proper Autumn weather!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    The 06z has been poetry in motion so far! Low pressure going under the block to the Azores, the block racing to Greenland!

    image.thumb.png.5822afe4f5bec49c3e59902f2fa86053.png At T192!!!

     

    The fabled Griceland high...

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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